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Baghdad, Iraq – The threat of escalating violence is highlighted again in Baghdad this week by influential Shiite leaders Muqtada al-Sadr, the leader of the largest parliamentary bloc, in an effort to form a majority government after the October elections.
A bomb blast near the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, has left two banks linked to Kurdish politicians in the central Karrada district on Sunday night, injuring two people.
A hand grenade was thrown at the headquarters of the Taqaddum party, led by parliamentary speaker Mohammed Halbousi, two days later. Hours later, a similar attack struck Khamis al-Khanjar in the office of another Sunni politician.
And on January 13, a txupinazo Several civilians, including a child and a woman, were injured at the U.S. embassy in the heavily fortified Green Zone.
There has been no responsibility for these attacks, which took place after the first meeting of the newly elected parliament on January 8, in which. chaos prevailed and physical quarrels broke out. Dramatic meetings, backed by the support of the Halbousi Sadrist Movement and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) – despite al-Sad’s opponents strongly opposed – inaugurated a long-running political dispute over the election of a new president. and the Prime Minister.
Analysts say the escalation is testing the limits of al-Sadr’s offer to create a government that would move away from the ethnosectoral agreement that al-Sadr imposed on Saddam Hussein in the 2003 invasion.
Known as the Muhasasa, the system divides power and state resources among Iraq’s three major religious and ethnic groups, Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds. insulting the demonstrators which in recent years has taken to the streets to demand a complete overhaul of the country’s political system.
Since the election in October, al-Sadr has repeatedly reiterated his commitment to forming a “national majority government”, essentially overthrowing the Shiite Coordination Framework, including former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, one of Sadr’s old enemies, among others. and the Fatah alliance, a political bloc that includes the pro-Iranian People’s Mobilization Force and suffered a huge election loss.
“A majority government can certainly be a responsible and effective government with clear tasks, expectations and responsibilities,” said Kamaran Palani, a researcher at the Middle East Research Institute. “However, this idea is rejected by the Coordination Framework and all major non-Sadr parties.”
Some pro-Iran militia groups have warned of escalating violence if Sunni and Kurdish groups decide in advance to join al-Sadr’s camp.
But al-Sadr, who fought hard against US forces in the Iraqi occupation and was once a major factor in the post-invasion sectarian conflict, has remained steadfast as the leader of the formidable Mahdi Army.
“Today, there is no room for sectarianism or ethnic division, but for a national majority government in which Shiites defend the rights of minorities, Sunnis and Kurds,” al-Sadr tweeted a day earlier. . first parliamentary session.
“There is no room for militias today, and everyone will be helped by the army, police and security forces.”
“There are no good alternatives”
Al-Sadr is defending his Sunni and Kurdish allies from alienating groups like Fatah, which had an undeniable level of power in Iraqi politics until the last election. If al-Sadr were able to form a majority government with his Sunni and Kurdish allies, al-Maliki’s rule of law party and Fatah could be taken to the opposition, a huge blow to the situation.
Analysts say the rift between Iraqi Shiite groups would be unprecedented, and if the al-Sadr or Shiite Coordination Framework were to be abandoned, a backlash would be almost inevitable.
“In either case, the opposition will not only seek to overthrow the government with legal and political instruments, but will intensify it violently,” warned Iraqi Crisis Group analyst Lahib Higel.
“There have been political killings between Shiite parties and armed groups[e] it has already happened and it can become more frequent and resonant. “
In the face of the ghost of instability, some ordinary Iraqis say that a majority government would bring much-needed accounts, which is largely out of the current muhasasa system.
“I am not in favor of al-Sadr, but at the moment I would like to see a majority government run by us because we have no other good alternative,” said Ahmed al-Haddad, a Baghdad resident.
“Moreover, if the majority government is formed and the country is still in chaos, there would be no excuse for the next election.”
However, not everything is on track to establish a majority government in a country affected by years of effective government and sectarian violence.
“Behind the push for a majority government was to go beyond the muhasa,” said Iraqi political analyst Hamzeh Hadad. “But the last parliamentary and parliamentary elections show that we are far from eliminating the muhasasa, as long as the parties operate on the basis of ethnosectarian identity, where no party can get a majority in any election.”
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