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More than two months ago, the Tigris rebels advanced internationally towards Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital. Back then, the future was bleak for the country. The bloody civil war was being fought on several fronts. The economy seemed on the verge of implosion. Political observers expressed fear that the capital could collapse too soon. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a political group that led an authoritarian government in Ethiopia for 27 years before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power, has already established a “responsible” government in Washington, DC. .
Fortunately, a lot has changed since then.
To address the country’s urgent challenges, Abiy declared a national emergency. In addition to calling on citizens to take up arms to defend the capital, he personally joined the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and its allies on the battlefield.
The decision to direct Abiy from the battlefield charged ENDF and his allies with the forces of the Amhara and Afar region. With the broad support of the people of Addis Ababa, the Tigris rebels stopped marching on the capital and decided to return to their region. At this point, Abiy made an important decision, which probably prevented Ethiopia from remaining in a state of constant war: he ordered the Ethiopian troops not to follow the rebels to Tigray.
Unfortunately, due to the constant attack of the rebels, the war is still far from over; fighting continues in the areas bordering Tigray. But in many areas occupied by early rebels, rehabilitation work has begun. And finally, signs of normalcy are emerging in Addis Ababa and other cities across the country.
After claiming victory, the Abiy administration also announced plans to start a new “national dialogue” to “pave the way for national consensus and maintain the integrity of the country.” To this end, in late December 2021, the Ethiopian parliament approved a call for the establishment of a “national dialogue committee”.
Now everyone is thinking about Abiy’s new initiatives to heal Ethiopia, leave ethnic divisions behind and finally create the conditions to start working for a united, peaceful and prosperous future.
Why Ethiopia Needs “National Dialogue”
To understand how Abiy’s new national dialogue initiative can help Ethiopia, we must first look at why the country needs it.
Prior to 1991, Ethiopia was a centralized state and national unity was one of its political foundations. But after the fall of the military regime in May 1991, the country was rebuilt as a federal entity, where different ethnic groups had a significant degree of autonomy.
Over the years, this decentralized structure has led not only to polarize the nation on the brink of implosion, but also to rule and oppress certain ethnic groups, such as the Tigris who controlled the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front.
In April 2018, Abiy came to power to address these issues, ending the oppression of the TPLF and pledging to unite Ethiopians of all ethnicities into a single nation.
Although he achieved impressive victories with his progressive reform agenda at the beginning of his tenure, the vision of a strong federal state in Ethiopia operating above the destructive divisions of Ethiopia was unfortunately not accepted by all.
While many, including most Amhars and urban elites, supported him and his dream of a truly united Ethiopia, radical ethnonationalists continued to push for more decentralization, calling for a new configuration reminiscent of a confederate system. Arguing this, what extremist ethno-nationalists wanted was the homogenization of ethnic regions.
This division between those who supported and those who did not support Abiy’s view of a functioning federalism, as well as their reluctance to accept the TPLF’s lack of influence in the central government through flawed ethnonationalism, were the main factors driving it. Ethiopia entered this costly civil war.
So if Ethiopia wants to avoid another devastating civil war and embark on a path to lasting peace and prosperity, an honest national dialogue between many of the country’s opposing voices is necessary.
It seems that it is time to avoid the existential threat that the state is facing, it is time to discuss the different views of Ethiopians about the country and to listen to the case of the current government, which was made clear in the 2021 general election. It has the support of the Ethiopian public. Only after such an honest and open dialogue can the country move forward to solve its problems and move forward.
Can a national dialogue be successful?
Most Ethiopians are hopeful that the Abiy administration’s national dialogue initiative will help them reach a national consensus on issues of importance to the country. However, others believe that the exclusion of armed groups, such as the TPLF and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), could be considered a failure from the outset.
However, the success of the national dialogue is not linked to the participation of armed groups that are actively fighting against the federal government. In fact, discarding them can help make the process a success.
In recent years, not only the Abiy administration, but also various religious leaders and cultural and business elites have tried to resolve political disagreements between the TPLF, the OLA and the federal government through diplomacy and civil debate. Abiy himself pushed for the formation of a national reconciliation commission in 2018 to hear complaints from ethnic groups and end ethnic violence.
All of these efforts failed, mainly because the Tigraian elites refused to recognize the government’s authority in any form or format. Groups such as the TPLF and OLA not only refused to engage in meaningful negotiation or dialogue, but also took up arms against the federal government, leading to the devastating events of the past 14 months.
So it seems that Ethiopia is currently leaving behind the bloody catastrophe caused by the TPLF and the OLA, allowing these groups to participate in any national talks – especially considering that they have not yet agreed to lay down their arms. The federal government may have reached a peace solution with the TPLF and the OLA, but that agreement will be separate from the outcome of the national dialogue.
For Ethiopians, national dialogue is an opportunity to draw a new path to peace, political tolerance, national unity, political and economic equality and a shared destiny in Ethiopia. Since November 2020, the TPLF and the OLA have shown that they have no interest in achieving this path, so there is nothing to gain from joining the national dialogue.
But the exclusion of the TPLF and OLA from the process should not be seen as a sign that the Tigris and Oromo are also excluded from the national dialogue. These groups are crucial members of the Ethiopian nation, and there is no reason to believe that the federal government is trying to exclude it from its national dialogue initiative. In fact, the federal government is currently headed by a Prime Minister of Oromo and many other Oromo are serving as ministers in his cabinet and at other levels of government. Likewise, many tigers remain in the service of the government and state institutions. Abiy’s current defense minister, Abraham Belay, is also from Tigray.
Ethiopia needs the support of the international community
In general, Prime Minister Abiy’s ambitious national dialogue initiative, despite efforts by the TPLF and the OLA to keep the deadly conflict alive, has great opportunities to unite Ethiopians and pave the way for lasting peace and prosperity. But these groups are not the only ones obstructing the federal government’s chances of building peace.
For a long time, the international community, led by Western governments, has refused to acknowledge the plight of the TPLF and the OLA in Ethiopia, and is dealing with the federal government, which has only defended itself against attacks by armed groups. like a nonsense villain. These governments, through statements as well as sanctions, not only helped to strengthen the TPLF and the OLA, but also limited the ability of the Ethiopian government to end the conflict quickly and decisively. Moreover, they did not praise enough and sometimes even acknowledged the federal government’s attempts to reduce bloodshed, such as repeatedly calling for a ceasefire, demanding negotiations, withdrawing from Tigray and not re-entering the region even after a decisive victory.
Today, the demonization of Ethiopia in the international arena continues to hamper peacebuilding efforts in the country. Thus, if the international community, and especially the Western nations, wants to help the Ethiopians leave this conflict behind, they should change course. To begin with, these foreign governments should praise and encourage the efforts of the national dialogue, rather than criticizing the exclusion of armed groups from the process.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial attitude of Al Jazeera.
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