A new Hun rises: The Cambodian ruling party has come together to guess its future News

The Cambodian ruling party will elect Prime Minister Hun Sen’s successor at an extraordinary congress on Friday, and the outcome will be determined after the 69-year-old leader. accept his eldest son in charge.

Hun Sen, who has ruled Cambodia for nearly 37 years, said on Dec. 2 that “Hun Manet is one of the candidates for prime minister and receives support from his father.”

His election paves the way for a political dynasty, critics said, reflecting his fear of losing immunity when Hun Sen could not govern. The Prime Minister of Cambodia is one of the longest-serving leaders in the world, having ruled the Southeast Asian nation for nearly 37 years. It has made Cambodia effective one-party state, Banned the main opposition party in 2017 and hardened political opponents, rights groups and journalists.

“I will help and educate [Hun Manet] to unleash his full potential, ”Hun Sen said last year about his son. “If he’s not as capable as his father, he may be at least 80-90 percent out of me. However, it depends on the voice of the people. The first concern is whether the party will accept it. The second is the general election.”

Although Hun Manet, 44, is attached to the highest political role in the country, he currently holds no public office and has more experience in uniform than in politics. A graduate of the United States Military Academy in West Point, he rose rapidly in military service, overseeing negotiations in the 2011 border conflict with Thailand when he was just 33 years old. In 2018, he became the commander of the Cambodian army, holding the second highest military post in the country. His limited political experience lies in the party apparatus, in the governing Cambodian People’s Party and the omnipotent Standing Committee and as the youth leader.

Even if the CPP sided with Hun Manet, he may not be in office until at least 2028, as his father soon showed reluctance to transfer power. Hun Sen said on December 2 that he could remain in office for another 10 years, and on December 6 confirmed that he intended to remain the country’s prime minister in the next 2023 elections.

Analysts say Hun Sen’s decision to accept his son as his successor years before a real transition brought risks to Hun Maneta, especially because there were indications that some CPPs disagree with the move.

“I thought the 2023 election was the best time to transfer power,” said Lee Morgenbesser, a senior lecturer at Griffith University in Australia, noting that Hun Sen now has the full support of the CPP, security apparatus, the business community and the business community. he has no serious political opposition. “

“The signal that he will transfer power to Hun Maneta in 2028 risks putting a goal on his son. If other members of the political elite are harmed by Hun Manet’s election, they now have enough time to challenge him, ”Morgenbesser said.

“Party leadership disagrees”

Veteran Cambodian political analyst Lao Mong Hay said Manet’s succession was likely but uncertain, and recent tensions between Hun Sen and Interior Minister Sar Kheng said “the party leadership did not agree with his son’s appointment.”

Seeing that Hun Sen had long been the most powerful enemy of the CPP, Kheng did not join the clash of high-ranking politicians who supported Manet. When he finally broke his silence, Kheng pledged to help the party’s candidate, but did not name Manet exactly.

To resolve any complaints, Lao Mong Hayek Hun Sen hoped to do a bit of “horse trading”. In addition to presenting his son as a prime ministerial candidate, Hun Sen has sought to renew the CPP’s top ranks at the next party congress. He plans to appoint a “reserve cabinet”, made up only of politicians under the age of 60, who will then be promoted to higher-level positions. These attitudes could be used to expel any dissident.

While most believed Manet would rise to the office of Prime Minister, few expect him to redefine Cambodian politics. Asked what he expected of Manet as leader, Lao Mong Hay commented on the political system his father had built.

“The party-state system is so ingrained in the protection of the interests of the current government elite and its friends that it is very difficult to introduce new ideas because these new ideas would almost inevitably affect those interests and destroy the whole system.” he said.

In a recent essay, academic Kevin J Doyle examined the behavior of Hun Sen and Manet’s social media, arguing that Manet is trying to “mirror” his father by building a nice, non-political character on the network.

Doyle, a former editor-in-chief of the now-closed Cambodia Daily, looked at nearly 2,400 photos posted on Manet’s Facebook page, and found that nearly 20% of the photos were seen in close or close contact with members of the general public. . Approximately 12 percent showed posing for selfies. By comparison, only 5 percent were related to the election or campaign.

Doyle said he also copied his father’s practice to advertise “gift-giving activities” online. “By closely repeating his father’s gift-giving practices closely, Hun Manet also expresses adherence to the political-economic order in which the CPP’s patron-client power base is built,” he wrote.

Chinese influence

Astrid Noren-Nilsson, author of the book The Second Kingdom of Cambodia, said she did not expect anything “very different” from Manet in terms of “leadership style” or “political liberalization.”

According to him, like Hun Sen, Manet is “adaptive and sensitive” and can “launch his post as prime minister” with a few small reforms to satisfy political opponents. But with so much time left for the transition, it is “almost impossible to know” who these concessions will be aimed at.

Noren-Nilsson predicted that Manet would also be unlikely to oversee major changes to the West, as relations between Cambodia and the United States have tightened in recent years, including between the military.

Referring to the “growing influence of China”, the US announced an arms embargo and sanctions were imposed on senior Cambodian defense officials in early December. In 2016, Cambodia launched annual joint military exercises with China, and a year later canceled similar exercises with the United States. Meanwhile, Manet, who is also the commander of the Cambodian army, met with a Russian security delegation in December and pledged to step up military cooperation.

Although Cambodia continues to delve deeper into China’s orbit, Noren-Nilsson said he hoped to be flexible internationally, and said his origins could facilitate negotiations that were fought under his father’s leadership.

While Manet spent much of his youth in New York, Hun Sen struggled with basic English and arrived in a rural town in Cambodia during the communist uprising and the American bombing campaign.

“His international position will depend entirely on the real-time politics and the geopolitical context at any given time. In such a case, if this could lead to a rapprochement with the Western powers, then their educational training could help with exchanges that may be more comfortable than in the past, “said Noren-Nilsson.