As costs rise, how long can China last with “zero COVID”? | Coronavirus pandemic News

Hong Kong, China – On January 23, 2020, China gave birth to “zero COVID”.

Facing the threat of a mysterious virus, the authorities Wuhan imposed the world’s first blockade on its 11 million people, Marking the beginning of a zero-tolerance policy that would define China’s pandemic response.

Two years later, the spread of lightning of the Omicron coronavirus variant and rising costs of keeping it under control are raising questions about the sustainability of China’s vision. But while the variants are pushing other parts of the world to live with the virus, it is likely to stick to China’s eradication strategy, despite the tight economic and social impact of tougher and more frequent blockades along closed borders, according to analysts.

“Omicron poses a greater threat to zero-Covid policy than its predecessors,” said Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong, Al Jazeera, citing the transmissibility of coronavirus strain. Three times easier than the Delta variant.

“Considering the tools on the mainland, I think they will also be able to monitor Omicron’s appearances. But it will take a lot of resources and a lot of interruptions in the process. ”

Chinese authorities are racing to eliminate emissions in the run-up to the Winter Olympics in Beijing on February 4. On Monday, authorities reported 223 infections nationwide, the largest increase in nearly two years, though the number of cases has dropped to double figures in recent days.

a after A Beijing office worker was the first person in the capital to test positive for Omicron on Sunday, local authorities immediately shut down his residential compound and office building, shutting white-collar workers inside.

Accused of a virus-infected letter from Canada, Chinese authorities also urged residents to minimize purchases of foreign goods and handle international mail carefully, although foreign experts questioned the likelihood of such transmission.

Prior to the creation of Omicron, authorities have in recent weeks controlled the outbreak of the Delta variant in Xi’an, Shanxi province, with a severe blockade blamed for causing food shortages and abortion of at least two pregnant women.

But since an appearance is controlled, new ones have sprung up across the country.

In recent times, 69 families have been found in Tianjin, which shares a border with Beijing. The city tested its entire population of 14 million in two days, and the Global Times state board denounced it as evidence of China’s “miracle of speed” in having the virus.

In addition to the border, Hong Kong has stepped up social exclusion measures to accommodate the growing Omicron cluster, suspended pre-schooling in schools, closed bars and nightclubs, and set a restaurant dinner limit at 6 p.m.

This week, the authorities He ordered the killing of 2,000 hamsters and small animals, citing the risk of human transmission from animal to animal — there is no direct evidence for this — after the first case of the Delta variant was detected within three months in a pet store vendor.

Jin Dong-Yan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, told Al Jazeera that it was “prudent” to use stricter controls “to gain more time so that Omicron can be better understood.”

Jin, however, said there was no reason to panic, noting that the variant’s shorter discharge window and milder symptoms and lower mortality rates in the United States and Europe.

Although China’s draconian measures have been acknowledged to keep deaths low, Jin has questioned their need as the virus evolves from a public health perspective.

“It’s a national honor for them and they think they have the best strategy in the world,” he said. “If we control the Wuhan pandemic, we can do the same elsewhere.”

Public support

Beijing is likely to be concerned about the effectiveness of its vaccine against the new variant, as lab results show that Sinovac does not produce enough antibodies to protect against Omicron. This allows the rise in cases to overtake the public health system, despite high vaccination coverage.

But as the rest of the world progresses, China is still stuck in the last days, Jin said.

“My advice would be to gradually adjust and take into account the reality around the world about COVID-19,” he said. “Politics should be taken step by step.”

Unlike in Western countries, where opposition to blockade and vaccination orders is growing, China has not had much of a public reaction to severe pandemic measures.

Despite the costs, the zero-COVID strategy seems to have broad public support from the population, according to Christian Göbel, a professor of Chinese Studies at the University of Vienna.

“I don’t think people are against blockades in themselves because they take COVID very seriously,” Göbel told Al Jazeera.

“There is a culture in which individual freedoms can be largely sacrificed for the collective good,” Lynette Ong, a political scientist at the University of Toronto, told Al Jazeera. “And a health crisis is seen as a justifiable reason for the sacrifice of individual freedoms.”

Xi Jinping’s government has claimed responsibility for managing the pandemic in China [File: Andy Wong/AP]

China – with only 4,636 dead on COVID-19 on Friday – has also claimed control of the pandemic as evidence of the dominance of its governing model, giving it less flexibility to change marches, Ong said.

He said the significant changes in policy will be driven by the material economic costs of being cut off from the rest of the world.

In fact, economists warn that economic costs are rising, especially as China’s real estate market and domestic consumption shrink.

“It is necessary to take a forward-looking view,” Chen Xingdong, China’s chief economist at BNP Paribas, said in a webinar earlier this month, the South China Morning Post reported. “China cannot simply continue with any policy it is implementing.”

“The central government seems to have realized the cost of the zero-Covid policy; it is certainly very dear and difficult to follow,” Chen said, pointing to the blockade imposed on Xian.

“It’s impossible to change course”

Earlier this month, the US Eurasia Group’s adviser cited China’s zero-tolerance policy as the most significant political risk for next year, citing the tension it will place in global supply chains and emerging markets.

Serious blockades to control future appearances “will lead to more economic disruption at the same time, more state intervention and a more dissatisfied population with the triumphalist mantra of the state media ‘Defeat China Covid’,” the consultancy wrote in a report. published on January 3rd.

“Zero Covid’s initial success and Xi’s personal adherence make it impossible to change course,” the report added.

In December, the World Bank lowered its forecast for growth in China’s gross domestic product (GDP) to 5.1 percent in 2022, down from 5.4 percent. That would be the slowest growth since the 1990s and a significant drop from last year’s 8.1 percent expansion.

Many analysts believe that the policy will remain almost certain until at least the end of the Party Congress, set for the latter half of 2022, where President Xi Jinping is expected to secure an unprecedented third term.

After that, the path is not so clear.

“The ideal scenario for mainland China is that the virus continues to evolve and in a year, or a short time, the variants that are circulating are even milder and pose no threat to public health, especially with greater vaccine coverage,” Cowling said.

“And China can relax its covid policies without a big exit wave or a big impact on public health.”

For Beijing, which has taken measures to control the virus, such a scenario is completely out of control when and where it can happen.