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Preparing for aggressive diplomatic action and defense is urgent to deal with threats of secession from Bosnian Serb President Milorad Dodi, analysts say.
Dodi, a Bosnian Serb member of the three-party presidency, fueled the country’s biggest political and security crisis in 26 years by announcing in October that Republika Srpska would withdraw from major state institutions, including the armed forces, and create institutions exclusively for Serbia. his place, in violation of the Dayton Peace Agreement.
The Dayton Accords signed by the US in Paris in December 1995 officially ended the Bosnian war, but the country was divided into two administrative entities: the Serb-led Republika Srpska and the Bosnian-Croatian Federation.
Dodik has been threatening to secede from Republika Srpska for years and join Serbia, but his recent bids to form a separate Serbian army have been of particular concern to citizens.
It was the Republika Srpska army that committed war crimes against non-Serbs in the international armed conflict in the early 1990s.
Dodi, who openly denies the Srebrenica genocide, announced his move after former High Representative Valentin Inzko ruled in July after denying the genocide and banning war crimes, as well as praising war criminals.
Serbian representatives responded by boycotting central institutions.
Although Dodik says the move will not lead to another war, many are not convinced.
In a report sent to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) earlier this month, Bosnian Supreme Representative Christian Schmidt, who oversees the implementation of the Dayton agreements, said Dodik’s actions were “without claiming secession”.
He said “the chances of further division and conflict are very real” if the international community does not take steps and take action.
But the international community – such as the European Union, which took over NATO in 2004 to ensure peace and security in Bosnia – has hardly reacted, despite issuing bad press releases.
Ismail Cidic, head of the Bosnian Advocacy Center in Sarajevo, told Al Jazeera, “The mere words only encourage Dodi and his regime to continue with their secessionist movements.
“The red line is going down all the time. To say no, let alone do what was unimaginable in 2005, is perfectly normal today. That is, Dodi is doing all this because he understands that the international community will not react properly, ”Cidic said.
Penalties
On Tuesday, Bosnian media reported that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is considering extending sanctions; Dodi has been on the U.S. blacklist since 2017 for obstructing Dayton agreements.
“Movements to unilaterally withdraw from state institutions or destabilize the Dayton Peace Accords will be appropriate measures, including penalties,” Blinken wrote in a letter to the three presidents.
But Cidic said additional sanctions in the U.S. would not have a significant impact on most of Dodik’s businesses, which it has with a partner, because they are tied to European or Russian markets.
“If the US wants to be more influential with any kind of sanctions, they should join the EU,” Cidic said.
The EU was not in favor of sanctions at a meeting of the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels on Monday.
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas called for sanctions on Dodi, but the only countries in favor were the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Belgium and the Czech Republic.
Hungary strongly opposed it, and the rest of the EU representatives had no clear position.
Kurt Bassuener, a senior member of the Democratization Policy Council, a think tank in Berlin, told Al Jazeera that no one on either side of the Atlantic wants to deal with the Bosnian crisis properly, “because no one wants to accept how bad politics is. for 15 years “, referring to the idea that the enlargement of the EU will” encourage politicians to act as responsible and responsible democrats “.
“Now it’s about acknowledging that you’ve been changing your policy [messing] for a long time, that is true. ‘
Bosnia has been a “potential candidate” for EU membership since 2003 EU-Western Balkans Summit last month, members who feared migration made it clear that he would not join the bloc soon.
Analysts say the EU is embarrassed that Russia will continue to fill the geopolitical space, as it has done for a long time.
Russia
Dodi and his political supporters have long called on Russia and China to close the Office of the High Representative.
At the UNSC this month, for the first time, the Bosnian High Representative was unable to report to the council.
Christian Schmidt blocked Moscow and threatened to prevent the renewal of EUFOR, the EU’s 700th peacekeeping force. Schmidt’s office sent its report to the UNSC.
The UNSC voted to extend EUFOR in Bosnia for another year, but only – as requested by Moscow – after removing references to the OHR in order to gain the approval of Russia and China.
Majda Ruge, a member of the Berlin-based European Council on External Relations, said the event was a moment for post-Dayton Bosnia.
“The Supreme Delegation must present a plan to resolve the crisis, and the US, the EU member states must fully support the implementation of this plan,” Rug told Al Jazeera.
“The most important thing here is not to give in to Dodik’s salami cutting tactic, but to respond to any rise with a credible threat of sanctions – penalties, freezing of goods, travel bans.”
Cidic said Russia has established strong ties and influence within EU governments.
“Otherwise, how do you explain, for example, Merkel’s numerous concessions and appeasement with Russia?” asked Cidic.
Security
Visa Turkovic It is important for Bosnian Foreign Minister Bosnia to join NATO as soon as possible to ensure peace and security.
They also proved that it was Russia Weakening the stability of Bosnia trying to keep the country out of NATO after an attempt to sow discord in Northern Macedonia in recent years and an attempted coup in Montenegro.
In March, the Russian embassy in Sarajevo warned that if Bosnia takes steps to become a member of NATO, “our country will have to react to this hostile action.”
Bosnia, Serbia and Kosovo are the only states in the Western Balkans that have not joined NATO.
Serbia, Russia’s ally, and the Republika Srpska continue to oppose the move. Montenegro became a member in 2017 and joined Northern Macedonia last year.
Bosnia is part of NATO’s Partnership Action Plan, a program for countries seeking to join the Western military alliance.
“We are ready to send the final ANP (National Program of the Year) as soon as we see the end of this illegal blockade of the Council of Ministers,” Turkovic told Al Jazeera.
“So we are on the road to NATO, but we need new support and dynamics from both sides because of the greater impact of other geopolitical actors in the region. It would lead to greater security and stability. ”
Bassuener said Schmidt made it clear in his report to the UNSC that the ongoing crisis in Bosnia is a security issue, not just a political one. Therefore, EUFOR needs to be strengthened in Bosnia.
There are currently 660 soldiers, and 5,000 are needed to perform the deterrent role, according to a 2011 security study.
He added that troops should be deployed in Brcko, a strategic town in northern Bosnia bordering Croatia, and dividing the western part of the Republika Srpska from the east.
For Cidic, Bosnian politicians should prepare defensive scenarios that include police forces and encourage aggressive diplomatic action around the world.
Part of the reason the international community has reacted passively is that “there has been no significant response to Dodik’s actions in favor of Bosnia,” Cidic said.
“I guarantee that the OHR, the EU, the US and others will react within minutes if the pro-Bosnian party makes ground movements, especially if this includes the strategic location of the police and reserve forces. The experience of the 1990s tells us so, ”Cidic said.
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