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Phnom Penh, Cambodia – While Cambodia is preparing to take over the presidency of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) next year, Prime Minister Hun Sen is parting ways with a bloc majority to bring in a military leader from Myanmar.
Following the February 1 military coup in Myanmar, most ASEAN states have especially condemned the new government. blocking his participation in both the ASEAN summit in October and yes ASEAN-China Summit in November, the “sufficient progress” of the leadership peace plan they agreed with the regional bloc earlier this year.
But while other ASEAN states have expressed concern, Hun Sen is claiming a commitment to the military, also known as Tatmadaw in Myanmar, as the best way forward.
As a first step in his commitment efforts, Hun Sen to know Wunna Maung Lwin with the Foreign Minister appointed by the military in Phnom Penh on December 7th.
He also announced that he would visit Myanmar in 2022 to meet with the army’s top leaders, including Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing and the coup, during a first state visit by a foreign leader since the coup.
Charles Santiago, head of the ASEAN Human Rights Parliamentarians (APHR) network of human rights defenders in the region, said ASEAN’s approach to Myanmar this year may not have been “hugely successful” but “has not been”. small successes, and one was to limit Myanmar’s participation in ASEAN meetings ”.
And “now Hun Sen is trying to weaken it [that approach]”.
In addition to a greater commitment to Tatmadaw, it is unclear what the future ASEAN chair will look like for Myanmar. Few ASEAN observers believe that full disengagement from the military government is likely or practical, and has also made it clear that ASEAN as a bloc, despite its opposition to military involvement, is open to Myanmar in other ways, such as. “non-political representative”.
However, the recent adoption of “cowboy diplomacy” by Hun Sen, a term that refers to dangerous and harsh diplomatic tactics, has worried many ASEAN regional partners.
Cowboy diplomacy
Justifying his new approach to engagement, the Cambodian Prime Minister said that Myanmar is a “family member of ASEAN” and that “if we do not work with the Myanmar authorities, who should we work with?”
He too he threw Critics questioned his decision to meet with the military, saying, “Please don’t bother me. Give me a chance to fix it.”
Although Hun Sen’s recent announcements to Tatmadaw deviate from previous comments and go against the positions of other ASEAN states, they are not necessarily surprising given the Cambodian Prime Minister’s strong stance on peace-building capabilities.
“[Hun Sen] he thinks he is a peacemaker; he has repeatedly emphasized his experience in post-war Cambodia to shed light on this point, ”said Charles Dunst, a fellow in the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), referring to Hun Sen’s role in negotiating a final surrender. Khmer Rouge in the late 1990s.
Although the Khmer Rouge regime, responsible for the genocide of about 2 million people, was officially overthrown in 1978 by the invasion of Vietnamese forces, the regime maintained strongholds in some parts of the country. Hun Sen has it long claimed it was his “win-win” policy that he developed a tactic to encourage desertions from the Khmer Rouge, which eventually put an end to the struggle.
“It’s the only way to avoid it [a failed state in Myanmar] it’s about engaging the board, rather than isolating it. [But] There are opportunities to make unforeseen decisions that risk deteriorating inside Myanmar, to “shoot change”, Dunst said.
As a result of the coup, more than 1,340 people have been killed by the military, according to the Political Prisoner Support Association, as the regime continues to crack down on protesters and clashes with the growing armed resistance.
However, this “cowboy diplomacy” has worried many inside ASEAN, who say the Cambodian leader is acting on his own without listening to others in the bloc in the region.
Santiago is particularly concerned about the lack of transparency in Hun Sen’s motives and ability to act, especially as he prepares for an official state visit.
“[Hun Sen] this is being done very unilaterally. Who gave him the command? It’s the same [visiting Myanmar] As the Prime Minister of Cambodia, on a personal basis, is he representing ASEAN? His position needs to be clarified and he has to say publicly that he has the support of ASEAN for the meeting before he leaves, otherwise that would lead to problems, ”Santiago said.
“The person who should go is not the same. The person who should go is a special envoy.”
Cambodia announced on December 15 that it would appoint Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn as Myanmar’s new special envoy to ASEAN, in a seemingly unilateral decision. Sokhon has followed Hun Sen’s leadership in Myanmar from the beginning, the latter amazed A meeting with Wunna Maung Lwin about the success of the “honest and honest”.
External effects
Cambodia’s deviation from the rest of ASEAN has raised concerns that the Kingdom will maintain the five-point peace plan developed at the ASEAN Leaders’ Meeting in April.
The fifth point of the agreement stipulates that “a special envoy and a delegation of all interested parties shall meet.” So far, Cambodia has only begun relations with the military, leaving aside the National Unity Government, a civilian group working to recognize Myanmar as a legitimate government.
Meanwhile, Cambodian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief General Vong Pisen had talks with Min Aung Hlaing on December 8 via video call, and Pisen invited the coup to attend the 19th meeting of the ASEAN Defense Forces. March 2022.
“It simply came to our notice then [Hun Sen] Myanmar wants to be involved in all of them [ASEAN] meetings and Cambodia can be very well connected with the military (they have a lot in common), but it’s not really what ASEAN is looking for, “said Joanne Lin, a leading researcher on security issues at the ASEAN Center for Studies, ISEAS. Yusof Ishak Institute.
Cambodia’s decision on Myanmar has also raised doubts as to whether it is influenced by outside actors in the Kingdom.
When he announced his intention to visit Myanmar, Hun Sen mentioned Fumio Kishida discussed the decision with Japanese Prime Minister Retno Marsudi and Indonesian Foreign Minister, stating that the state visit could be part of a larger multilateral effort.
But experts question whether any country, especially Indonesia, has been particularly vocal in its anti-military stance in making decisions by Hun Sen or the influence of the Myanmar army in general.
“The reality is that no foreign power has the tools to bring in the Myanmar military and opposition [and armed organizations] to the table, ”Dunst told Al Jazeera.
“I don’t think there’s much or nothing going on, really Phnom Penh, [Tokyo] or Jakarta can change that right now. A multilateral effort by Myanmar will not succeed if China and Russia are not included, as these two powers are helping Tatmadaw the most. “
Both Russia and China have become prominent military allies, especially since the coup weakening any international effort, especially through the UN Security Council, to take action against the military.
But interestingly, Hun Sen’s face happened at the same time as China’s special envoy Sun Guoxiang. travel Singapore and Brunei are under pressure to join the Tatmadaw summit in China and ASEAN in November, suggesting that Cambodia and China may once again be close allies to Cambodia.
“There is no doubt that China is pushing Cambodia to change the course of China’s investment, which is backed by the junta, because it is in the best interests of China. But I have not seen any confirmation,” Dunst said.
Whether China is flexing its diplomatic muscle to pressure Cambodia, the only thing that is certain, according to Lin, is that the crisis in Myanmar will remain in everyone’s mind.
“There are a lot of things on the Cambodian plate, but what really everyone is looking at right now is what will determine the success of their presidency.
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