Climate threat is growing after Myanmar’s military coups | Climate Crisis News

Yangon / Taipei – There is growing concern that Myanmar is in danger of a serious environmental crisis, as the generals who seized power in a coup on February 1 are focused on consolidating their control and strengthening their position by strengthening the country’s win-win but destructive policies. natural wealth.

The Global Climate Risk Index places Myanmar among the countries most at risk of the climate crisis, with severe floods and landslides as well as droughts, exacerbated by decades of uncontrolled deforestation and the extraction of minerals and gems.

Over the past 20 years, Southeast Asia has had the largest weather-related losses along with Puerto Rico and Haiti.

But temporary efforts to get more renewable energy projects and develop climate resilience under Aung San Suu Kyi’s government have been scrapped since the military ousted the National Democratic League’s administration on Feb. 1, canceling aid programs and causing private investors to leave.

Developers who were awarded a solar power tender last year – more than 1GW or a third of Myanmar’s current dry season’s 3.1GW capacity – were unable to deliver, partly as a result of the coup.

In May, the military launched its own tender for solar energy, but was forced to extend the bidding period three times due to a lack of bidders. The deadline was mid-October, but no official results have been announced yet.

The difficulties faced by solar energy companies reflect a higher risk of post-coup Myanmar losing its climate finance opportunities.

“There are good projects to invest in Myanmar that would build climate resilience, such as natural reforestation and renewable energy projects,” said Vicky Bowman, director of the Yangon-based Myanmar Center for Responsible Business and former British ambassador to Myanmar. “But development partners seem frozen by the coup, and private sector investors now instinctively see Myanmar as high risk and looking for alternatives in Southeast Asia, even if climate investment there could be as problematic as Myanmar in practice.”

Investors should see that there are still opportunities to work with local communities and businesses to invest in natural capital and climate resilience, Bowman told Al Jazeera. “Otherwise, the people of Myanmar will be hit with a double blow of military government and international neglect.”

Myanmar is not in the world’s major climate negotiations COP26 Glasgown this month reflected the international isolation caused by the country’s coup d’état, and reflected the ongoing struggle for recognition between coup leaders and the National Union Government (NUG), including elected government officials who removed the parallel administration.

Insulation

Hosts of the COP26, the United Kingdom, excluded the head of the Armed Forces Min Aung Hlaing from the list of guests at the summit, and the organizers of the event, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), dismissed representatives of Myanmar’s military government.

Chit Win was the chief diplomat appointed by the military in London he expelled the ambassador of the ousted government After the February 1 coup from the embassy, ​​he managed to register with three members on the temporary event page. But they were denied entry and then removed from the system due to the reaction of the people of Myanmar.

Al Jazeera has seen copies of two contributions submitted by the NUG and the State Board of Directors (NDC) —climate action plans and policy commitments— as the coup leaders have appointed their governing body.

The two NDCs estimate that the conventional state of coal (BAU) scenario is about 30 percent of the country’s total energy generation, which was confirmed by NLD Deputy Minister of Energy Tun Naing in 2019.

The NUG said they plan to reduce the coal share from 33 per cent (about 7940MW) to 20 per cent (3620MW) and 11 per cent (2120MW) by 2030. The SAC gave the same figures.

But the share of coal in electricity generation is currently less than 1 percent, 30 times lower than the highest estimates provided by the NUG and SAC. Sources blamed the disagreement on some producers ’efforts to encourage Myanmar to use more coal.

«NLD Deputy Minister of Government [Tun Naing] at that time the interests of Japanese, Chinese and Indian coal were being promoted because they were no longer interested either for political reasons or because of the aftermath of the Myanmar coup, ”an Yangon industrial source told Al Jazeera.

The NUG said it had stayed with the NDC of the NLD administration that demolished the NLD for COP26 because they believed it was legitimate for the people to make the government elected, according to two senior officials from the NUG’s Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation. for security reasons.

“Given the legitimacy given to the removed administration by the people of Myanmar, we [NUG] The NLD submitted the government’s NDC to COP26, ”said a senior official from the NUG’s Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation.

A senior NUG official said they did not have enough time to rebuild the NDC.

“We have received some comments from indigenous groups and will consider their contributions when we review the NDC,” the official said when asked about the role of ethnic communities in protecting forests.

Maw Htun Aung, NUG’s deputy minister of electricity and energy, accepted the criticism and said the coal policy would be “re-examined” and the main energy plan would be reviewed, even though the SAC is now in the capital Naypyidaw.

“It doesn’t make sense to focus on coal energy. China is also gradually removing coal funding. We have no plans to expand coal projects, and we will work with ethnic communities to write an energy policy at the federal level, ”Maw Htun Aung told Al Jazeera.

Last year’s government estimates that Myanmar’s electricity comes from 20 gas-fired power plants, 62 hydroelectric facilities and a single coal-fired power plant.

Resource exploitation

In addition to slowing down climate-related actions and investments, environmental activists and analysts fear that the military will increase exploitation, teak trade, palm oil plantations and exploitation of natural resources, such as jade. supported the long-term survival of previous military regimes also in international sanctions.

The generals have also long since made a profit from the sale of gems, and local media have reported that a gem fair will be held in Naypyidaw this month.

In November, the agriculture minister appointed by the military Tin Htut Oo spoke about the deployment of palm oil plantations, according to Myanmar’s Global New Light state. The official paper said “implementations are underway” to turn the Tanintharyi region, an important region in southern Myanmar bordering the Andaman Sea and Thailand, into a “large oil tank based on palm oil”.

Mary Callahan, an expert from Myanmar at the University of Washington in the United States, says the proposal is “a disaster for fragile ecosystems and endangered species.” Promoting palm oil plantations could lead to a new wave of land confiscation and further deforestation, he told Al Jazeera.

A few weeks after taking power and arresting Aung San Suu Kyi and her allies, Min Aung Hlaing also spoke about the development of hydroelectric dams.

As foreign investors withdraw, analysts are concerned that the military will increase the exploitation of natural resources such as timber, which helped support the previous military regime in the face of international sanctions. [File: Soe Zeya Tun/Reuters]

Myanmar has the richest jade deposits in the world and is dominated by the military industry [File: Soe Zeya Tun/Reuters]

This has sparked fears that the military may decide to restart the controversial China-backed Myitsone Dam in northern Myanmar, a project mascot for former powerful man Than Shwe, who was ousted in 2011 by then-President Thein Sein. significant public protests. The generals did not mention Myitsone directly.

“We are deeply concerned that the military will backtrack on old policies like large-scale hydropower, which could wreak havoc on the country’s two main rivers – Ayeyarwady and Thanlwin – the last two remaining free rivers in tropical Asia.” said a senior employee of an environmental NGO working in Myanmar who refused to be named for security reasons.

Ethnic communities on the borders, coasts and mountain regions are also concerned about climate risks.

“Of course we are concerned about climate change. We are working on forest management and climate issues, ”said a senior official from an ethnic armed group in northern Myanmar, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue. Although most of the territory controlled by his group is mountainous and protected from floods, other climatic disasters such as cyclones, droughts and landslides continue to threaten the local population. Since the coup, his group, which had long sought autonomy, has renewed its fight against the armed forces.

“As a result of the coup and the political crisis, it has become more difficult to meet environmental challenges. On the one hand, more and more international investors and partners have come out of Burma, “he said. One key reason, he added, is that the Burmese military leader will rely on natural resources to solve his financial problem. Not only this board, but also the subsequent regimes in the previous State Peace and Development Council [SPDC] Age”.

The SPDC was the official name of the military government that took power in 1988.

“Forests in border areas controlled by ethnic groups are safer than those in regions under government control,” said staff at the environmental NGO. “To help protect these forests, countries and economic blocs in the area like ASEAN and the EU must be on high alert for illegal trade timber. Meeting demand is key.”

However, in a letter to COP26, Khin Maung Yi pledged to reduce the net emissions designated by military minister of natural resources and environmental conservation by 50 percent by 2030 “if appropriate international assistance is received”.

“Also, by 2030, the share of new renewable energy targets (solar, wind) will increase from 2000 MW to 3070 MW,” wrote Khin Maung Yik.

Demonstrators said goodbye with three fingers and burned a flag in a protest against the November 24 coup in Yangon. [Stringer/EPA]

But as long as the political crisis continues with a downward spiral, foreign aid and energy investments funded by the military — with the exception of China — are unlikely to arrive, according to Yangon diplomats and investors.

Experts say environmental exploitation risks further poverty and increased food insecurity, but as generals focus on suppressing any resistance against their rule, few are confident they will have the will to tackle Myanmar’s impending climate nightmare.