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Like the rest of the world, 2021 is not the best year for democracy in Africa. Military coups have returned to West and Central Africa, Sudan, Guinea, Chad and Mali. In Sudan, the coup overturned a democratic revolution and paved the way for an end to decades of military rule.
And as democratic progress in the Horn of Africa seemed to be gaining ground, civil strife and political violence returned, as seen in Ethiopia and Somalia. In Uganda and Tanzania, free and fair elections have proven to be elusive targets.
In this feverish environment, Kenyans are preparing to face their election demons in eight months. The country has had a complicated relationship with the vote, especially with the presidency. They have sometimes been tools for expressing the will of the people, such as the loss of Uhuru Kenyatta, who was elected in 2002 by Daniel Arap Moi, the successor to former dictator President Moi.
However, five years later, the country would almost collapse after the debate over the election results. Since then, the election has become a time of great hope for change and a great deal of fear.
This dynamic has been seen in the last two presidential election cycles. In 2013, panic won over memories of the 2007-2008 violence that led to the removal of doubts about electoral behavior, the first under a new constitution passed in 2010 that ended the 25-year struggle and accelerated a two-year coup d’état.
Despite numerous pieces of evidence that the election did not comply with the law, the newly formed Supreme Court, Willy Mutunga, a well-known High Justice activist and pro-democracy activist, went out of his way to declare the result valid. Thus, Uhuru Kenyatta eventually became president.
In 2017, Kenya’s bid for re-election was initially rejected by the Supreme Court, this time by an ultra-conservative judge led by David Maraga, whom many civil society activists called Kenyatta’s factory for failing to comply with the election. law. It was the first time a mainland court had suspended the re-election of an incumbent president, which meant another victory of hope.
However, in a repeat election in October of that year, fear prevailed again. On the eve of the election, the Supreme Court was due to hear a petition calling into question the constitutionality of the poll, following the removal of Kenyatta’s main opponent, Raila Odinga, two weeks earlier. However, many court judges chose to stay away, fearing the threats of annulment and an attack that killed the deputy chief’s bodyguard. This was nothing more than a coronation and paved the way for an “election” that left the country highly polarized, and killed dozens in favor of Odinga.
Today, when the country is facing another election, there are again reasons for optimism and pessimism. The courts have shown courage in defending the constitution over the past year, curbing attempts by Kenyatta (and her new friend Odinga) to change it.
Moreover, elections, where candidates are presented, tend to be the most prone to violence. Since 1992, there have been fierce presidential elections in 2002 and 2013, when deadlines prevented Moi and his successor Mwai Kibaki, respectively, from running for another term. Kenyatta will face the same hurdle next year and as before, politicians, bureaucrats and security forces will likely take it in stride, eventually wanting to jeopardize the winner’s reward, be it Odinga or Kenyatta’s distant deputy William Ruto, if they find themselves. on the part of the losers.
On the other hand, Kenyatta has a horse in the race because he has thrown his weight behind Odinga, and his willingness to threaten and co-opt independent organizations has not diminished. Maraga has since retired, and her successor, Martha Koom, a prominent human rights defender in the form of Mutunga and the country’s first female chief justice, has shown little reluctance to fight the executive.
Moreover, the electoral system has not been renewed since the catastrophe of 2017 and continues to be prone to abuse. In fact, many of the people who oversaw these elections remain in power. There is little reason to believe that people who try to steal elections will not be useful again.
Despite the challenges posed by 2021, polls show continued support for democracy across the continent. Kenyans certainly want hope in 2022 for hope to triumph over fear again.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial attitude of Al Jazeera.
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