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Baghdad, Iraq – Almost three months after October electionsThe newly elected Iraqi parliament will meet for the first time after an election cycle that was also questionable and confusing by Iraqi standards.
Traditionally, the first parliamentary session was to elect the Speaker of Parliament and his two deputies. However, according to the agenda released by the Council of Representatives, only “appointments of the spokesperson and two deputies” would be included in Sunday’s session, suggesting that the speaker may not be confirmed.
The Electoral Commission has informed Mahmoud al-Mashhadani that he is the oldest member of parliament and will chair the first session, according to the constitution.
This process, according to analysts, will not be smooth: one political party has not received enough support to decide where Iraq’s policy will go in the next four years.
Early elections, which had the lowest turnout since the US-led invasion in 2003, had the lowest turnout of just 44 percent. Muqtada al-Sadr, A top Shiite leader built out of a complete rejection of any foreign presence in Iraq, won 73 of the 329 seats.
It also dealt a humiliating blow to the Fateh Alliance, a paramilitary group led by the Iranian People’s Mobilization Force (PMF). With only 17 seats, the organization will reduce its representation dramatically compared to the outgoing parliament.
In the months leading up to the first parliamentary session, the political landscape in Iraq was dominated by meetings and meetings between different parties in an attempt to form a government that would advance their interests, interspersed with ongoing precedents. claims fraud and threats to boycott the entire election results.
Overall, the dust settled after the Iraqi Supreme Court upheld the final election results in late December last year, with few changes to the preliminary results, with remaining tensions over election results still affecting the next government for months. training.
Al-Sadr, in part, has won most of the money because it carefully calibrated the campaign strategy to use the new election law to its advantage, hardening the majority government, which will essentially house the Fateh alliance and former prime minister. Nouri al-Maliki in favor of the opposition.
“I see that the first thing that needs to be done for the country in the future is the government of the national majority,” al-Sadr said in a statement shortly after the election results were confirmed.
After the release of the first results, the phrase “neither East nor West” was often thrown into his political narrative, rhetorically dismissing foreign influence and seeking to establish a majority government. But that has not yet been translated into concrete terms in the process of forming the government.
The Shiite Coordination Framework, a group made up of al-Maliki’s rule of law, the Fateh alliance and their allies, is not ready to send the next government to a majority government led by Sadr, and continues to push for a consensus government.
In this very complex negotiation process, almost every meeting imaginable was played out. Meetings were also held throughout the country, from Baghdad to Najaf to Erbil. However, despite the seemingly endless rounds of discussion between the political parties, no agreement was reached.
“Iraq’s political division makes it difficult to elect a majority government and since no party has ever won a full majority, it is necessary to build coalitions, create a majority government or a government of national consensus,” said Iraqi politician Hamzeh Hadad. and an economic analyst, he has just written.
The long process of forming a government that eventually alienates voters who ran in the election is not news in Iraq.
In the run-up to the 2003 invasion, the negotiations that led to the new government took months, often accompanied by violence. And almost without exception, the ruling elites were mixed, and Iraq continued to suffer from corruption, violence, and a general lack of effective government.
“The formation of the government is the Iraqi political system when it is tested for stress to reaffirm its resilience and the worse results of consensus, sectarianism and compromise come together to bring a weak, effective and inevitably corrupt and disconnected government to power,” said Sajad Jiyad. A fellow of the Century Foundation, he wrote on social media.
Uncertainty
This lack of consensus will soon be addressed at the first parliamentary session to elect a spokesperson. There is uncertainty among Sunni parties.
“So far, there is no consensus between the Sunni Taqadum and al-Azim,” said Kamaran Palani, a researcher at the Middle East Research Institute, referring to the two largest Sunni parties.
“[Mohammed] Halbousi has a majority within the Sunnis, but that is not enough because the Sunni parties also need the blessing of the major Shiite powers. Halbousi doesn’t support frames and Sadr is flexible. ‘
The uncertainty surrounding the appointment of a parliamentary speaker extends to two other presidencies: the president, reserved for Kurds, and the prime minister, a Shiite. Similarly, the respective political groups have not yet reached an agreement.
No one has come close to claiming the post of prime minister, and tensions are mounting as al-Sadr pushes for a Sadrist candidate and Marko Shiite is determined to nominate a candidate for his bloc.
“The country has, for the most part, had a weak prime minister to lead the state, coming from a weak political base, both as a candidate for internal commitment and as a candidate for internal commitment,” Hadad said. Iraq’s policy, especially on the confidence of ordinary Iraqis in the system.
“Unfortunately, this will further exacerbate the frustration of the Iraqi people, whose calls for direct voting for their commander-in-chief have grown.”
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