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Earlier this month, Kazakhstan became the scene of bloody events that put the oil-rich Central Asian country in the spotlight. The violence killed more than 220 people, and the destruction of public property and disruption of economic life will cost about $ 3 billion.
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev described the unrest as an “unprecedented attack and an act of aggression against our state” and called for help from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance of six former Soviet countries.
These events, which took place when the Soviet Union was disbanded and began in the fourth decade, will have a profound effect not only on this resource-rich country, but also on the whole post-Soviet space, as well as Russia and Russia. Relations with the West.
A blow and a blow from the rise in the price of gas
Before discussing the impact of the protests in Kazakhstan, it is important to keep track of the chronology of events, which some have even called a “revolution.”
The spark of unrest came in early January, when the government launched another cut in fossil fuel subsidies, more than doubling the price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). This has sparked outrage, especially in the west of the country, where between 70 and 90 percent of vehicles use this type of fuel and where most of Kazakhstan’s oil production is located.
The fact that the Western region has long been neglected by the central government, despite making a significant contribution to the state budget (oil is the largest source of state funding in Kazakhstan) has only increased its resentment. Its residents suffer from high rates of poverty and unemployment and are often treated as second-class citizens. This is why social protests have often taken place there.
For example, on December 16, 2011, Kazakhstan’s Independence Day, protests erupted against socio-economic hardship and unpaid contributions to oil workers in the oil-rich town of Zhanaoz. More than a dozen people were killed when police launched a savage crackdown. In 2018, to celebrate the anniversary of the massacre, demonstrations were also held the following year against China’s economic expansion in Kazakhstan and the employment of Chinese workers.
Given the past unrest in the region, the government was relatively backward and ineffective in the face of protests in early January. Tokaiev waited a day to send two government officials to the west, who tried to reassure the people, promising to return the old prices. But by then the public’s anger was raging all over Kazakhstan.
On January 4, Tokayev released a statement saying the government was responsible for the situation, pledging to respond to protesters’ demands and warning young people in Kazakhstan to “destroy their future.”
But the threatening note in his speech was a mistake. He showed that Tokayev did not understand the reality of the country, where the average age is 31 and the standard of living is deteriorating rapidly. A significant portion of the population lives in poverty, even though the gross domestic product per capita is $ 9,000.
Not surprisingly, Tokayev’s statement further angered the public, and prompted him to move from socioeconomic complaints to political proclamations. Demonstrators began demanding the resignation of the government, direct elections for regional governors and freedom of political association.
In the south, Almaty, the former capital of the Soviet Republic of Kazakhstan and the most important economic and political center, was also taken by unrest and new first victims of violence began to emerge. Local authorities responded by shutting down the Internet, but this was also a strategic mistake, as it sent people to the streets to try to find out what was going on.
As the situation worsened, it became clear that the government was struggling to make quick and effective decisions for a solution. One of the reasons for this was Tokayev’s hands being “tied” by the presence of two centers of power in the country: Nursultan Nazarbayev, the seat of Kazakhstan’s first president, known as the “Library,” and Tokayev, the current president’s seat. , Known as the “chord”. This has been the case since Nazarbayev resigned in 2019 and Tokayev, who was considered his puppet, has been named his successor.
In the early days of the unrest, Nazarbayev, who holds the honorary title of “El Basy” (head of the nation), was nowhere to be seen. His press secretary, Aidos Ukibai, assured the public that he was in the capital, but did not present any evidence. According to this author, “El Basy” was in the Chinese resort of Hainan, his favorite place for relaxation and medical treatment.
Seeing this situation as impossible, on January 5, Tokayev finally took matters into his own hands to release the government and declare that it was taking over the powers of the Kazakhstan Security Council, the state body responsible for implementing national security policies. until then led by Nazarbayev. This meant that Tokayev was trying to remove the second center of power and take control of the country’s power.
On the same day, Tokaiev released the head of the secret service (National Security Commission, KNB), Karim Massimov, a loyalist Nazarbayev and former prime minister and head of his administration, and his deputy, Samat Abish, Nazarbayev’s nephew. he was once considered his heir.
This was a turning point. On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov made clear the Kremlin’s stance on the events in Kazakhstan. He said the Russian neighbor had not asked for help and expressed the hope that “our Kazakh friends will be able to handle their own internal affairs on their own,” which may indicate that Moscow wants to play a role.
Within hours of this statement, a request for assistance arrived from the Kazakh capital. Tokayev said the country had been attacked by “terrorist groups trained abroad” and called on the CSTO for help.
At night, the first military aircraft flew to Kazakhstan, sending troops from Russia. Later, small contingents from Armenia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus also arrived.
So what happened on January 5 that triggered this sudden decision by Tokayev?
On that day, the first signs of a “counter-coup” emerged, as the Nazarbayev clan was quickly mobilized to block Tokayev’s power. The fighters, who had almost no resistance, were well organized and trained to control the KNB building, the Presidential Palace and Almaty Airport. It was clear to many Kazakhs who was behind these actions. Tokayev himself suggested this when he accused the KNB of ignoring a “critical threat” and allowing their offices to be attacked without a fight.
The onslaught of state institutions and infrastructure allowed Tokayev to present what was happening in the country as a source of foreign interference and aggression and to use it as a reason to demand CSTO intervention.
The deployment of CSTO troops effectively ended the counterattack. They were able to control Almaty airport and restore order in the city quite easily. Nazarbayev’s family and his clan suffered a major blow, and Tokayev was freed from political restrictions that prevented him from tying his hands and preventing economic and political reform. But that did not lead to the complete death of Nazarbayev.
Kazakh commitment and Russian victory
On January 14, the KNB issued an official statement saying that Nazarbayev’s nephew, Abish, had retained his position. Meanwhile, Massimov, his former boss, remains in custody on charges of treason. Blaming Massimov for a loyal Nazarbayev, but not for his family member, indicates that some sort of commitment has been made.
This means that Nazarbayev has also decided not to discredit Kazakhstan as a symbol of independent Kazakhstan and as a key figure in its post-Soviet state. El Basy is said to remain a mythical personality, as removing him would create more tension in Kazakh society and perhaps create more unrest. After the death of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, some lessons were learned from the decision to suddenly dismantle Stalin’s cult of identity in Kazakhstan, which caused unrest in some parts of the USSR and caused severe psychological trauma to large parts of the Soviet population.
After reaching some sort of agreement with Nazarbayev and strengthening his power, Tokayev quickly declared that the mission of the CSTO was over. On Jan. 11, he said troops would begin withdrawing. This announcement reflects the president’s understanding that a large presence of foreign troops could disrupt the population and see them as occupiers. And that’s something Tokayev wouldn’t risk, considering that now more than ever he needs to win the support of the people and strengthen his legitimacy.
Although the CSTO’s mission is quickly over, its leader, Putin’s Russia, is the biggest beneficiary of these events. The Kremlin claimed victory, strengthening its influence in the post-Soviet space and ensuring the loyalty of the Kazakh leader and respect for the geopolitical interests of Russia and the interests of the country’s large Russian community.
He was also able to demonstrate that CSTO is not just a paper project and can play an important role in the geopolitics of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. This is precisely what helps Moscow show its capabilities and determination in its negotiations with the US and NATO to defend its red lines in the post-Soviet space.
But the events in Kazakhstan also complicate the political situation in Russia, where 69-year-old Putin faces the dilemma of handing over power. The unrest of the eastern neighbor effectively proved that any scenario of a power transition could put the regime and its beneficiaries at great risk. Probably because Putin is still in power for a lifetime, or at least physically and mentally capable, there would be one more reason.
In other words, Kazakhstan has inadvertently predicted Russia’s 2024 outcome in 2022.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial attitude of Al Jazeera.
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