Low expectations about the talks because Iran creates events for Reuters

By John Irish, Francois Murphy and Parisa Hafezi

PARIS (Reuters) – World powers and Iran will return to Vienna on Monday to make a final effort to save the 2015 nuclear deal, but few expect a breakthrough as Tehran’s atomic activities are booming, apparently to gain strength against the West.

Diplomats say there is little time to revive the pact that US President Donald Trump suspended in 2018, angering Iran and upsetting the other world powers involved – Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia.

Between April and June there were six rounds of indirect lectures. The new round begins after a hiatus caused by the election of a new Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi, a tough clergyman.

The new Tehran negotiating team has set unrealistic demands on US and European diplomats. They have been calling for the suspension of all sanctions imposed by the US and the EU since 2017, including those unrelated to its nuclear program,

At the same time, conflicts with Tehran’s atomic guard, which controls the nuclear program, have escalated. Iran has made progress with its enrichment program and the IAEA says its inspectors have been abused and denied access to the re-installation of monitoring cameras at a site it deems essential to revive the agreement with world powers.

“They are doing enough technically to be able to change their basic relationship with the West so that they can have a more equal dialogue in the future,” said one Western diplomat who took part in the talks.

Two European diplomats said Iran seemed to be playing with time to accumulate more material and knowledge.

Western diplomats have said they will resume talks on Monday as they resume work from where they left off in June. They have warned that if Iran continues with its maximalist positions and does not re-establish its cooperation with the IAEA, then they will need to quickly review the options.

Iran’s top negotiator and foreign minister reiterated on Friday that the complete removal of sanctions would be the only thing on the table in Vienna.

“If this is the position that Iran continues on Monday, then I do not see a negotiated solution,” a European diplomat said.

Several diplomats say Iran is four to six weeks away from missing the “break-in time” it needs to accumulate enough fissile material for a single nuclear weapon, although they warned it was still about two years before it could be armed.

If talks fall through, it is likely that the United States and its allies will initially confront Iran in the IAEA next month, calling for an emergency meeting.

However, they also want to try to keep Russia, which has a political influence in Iran, and China, which offers economic breath to Tehran through the purchase of oil, because they are initially looking for alternative diplomatic options.

One scenario diplomats say is that Washington has suggested that it is negotiating an interim open deal with Tehran as long as no lasting agreement is reached. However, they say it would take time and there is no guarantee that Iran will.

“Iran can estimate that its unrestricted nuclear progress and the production of uncontrolled centrifuges will put more pressure on the West to allow it to quickly engage in talks,” Eurasian analyst Henry Rome said in a statement.

“But it will probably have the opposite effect, as the new Iranian group has no interest in resolving the nuclear issue and accelerating change for a more restrictive policy next year.”