[ad_1]
By Carlos González
Investing.com – The last few years have certainly been a turning point in the markets. In a short time, we have experienced a global pandemic, a rise in inflation and a sharp rise, and now the central banks are removing stimulus policies.
All of this is exacerbated by rising commodities, rising currencies, rising interest rates and rising world indices and setting records.
After all these unpredictable years, what can we expect in 2022? Forecasts suggest that 2022 will not be a quiet year, but how will that be different from the recent past? More importantly, what are the factors that need to be seen in order for investors to be successful in 2022?
1. Inflation, Very Real Presence
The last months of 2021 have seen a warning of rising inflation. It has certainly become an increasingly real, present and prominent threat. And that’s how most analysts see inflation as one of the key factors for 2022.
Andrew McCaffery, Fidelity International’s Director of Asset Management, said: for a longer period of time, due to the cost of efforts to achieve carbon neutrality. “
In other words, no transient inflation. It looks like we will have some inflation in 2022.
Ingrid Kukuljan, Head of Sustainable Investment and Impact at the Federated Hermes (NYSE), said: “Inflation has been a major concern for investors by 2022. in 2022. This, together with the reopening and demand for the consequences of statistical bases, will further exacerbate the current inflation hysteria. “
Given this scenario, Pedro del Pozo, director of financial investments at Mutualidad de la Abogacía, says that inflation will remain “the main economic unknown for the coming months”. “The rate curves are flattening out, which makes it very clear that the market is assuming that these potential rate hikes will not only kill inflation, but also some extent future growth,” the expert explained, noting that this will be the case. in fact, “a very important point to consider in 2022, its impact on both bond and capital markets.”
2. Goods: How far can they go?
Commodities have been a big part of the history of inflation over the last year.
Explaining the good behavior of commodities in recent years, experts point out that commodity baskets, although cyclical, complement other asset classes very well. As a result, the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) has risen by almost 60% since the start of the pandemic and 24% since January 2021.
Pierre Debru, head of Multi-Asset Solutions and Quantitative Analytics at WisdomTree, provides two basic insights to understand this trend: in parts when the shares generally don’t get a second wind, ”which is where we are now and will likely be in large part by 2022.
3. Tapering And Interest Rates
For many months, the messages of the main central banks have played a role in the ambiguity, although in recent meetings they have clarified the picture considerably. In this sense, the conclusion is that the important meetings in December did not surprise the market, even if they made important decisions.
Thus, A&G noted, “the focus of the meetings has been clearly more restrictive or blackened, which seems to mark the future of the upcoming meetings.” On the other hand, A&G professionals point out that “not all central banks are at the same point in the cycle, leading Anglo-Saxons to lead the way to the ECB from next year, especially if price expectations continue to rise.”
Víctor Alvargonzález, Nextep Finance’s founding partner and chief strategy officer, said: with an estimated 4% growth in the economy, there are no interest rates that will hurt growth. ”
For James McCann, chief economist at Aberdeen Asset Management, “The Fed’s recent announcement was a lesson for investors in how quickly central bank policy signals can change. Investors should not underestimate what the Fed has said Inflation continues to rise, even as it upsets the markets. “
4. Geopolitics: A Silent War
Another important factor that could mark 2022 is not a strictly economic issue. There are currently open conflicts between several countries and, if nothing is done, they could have a butterfly effect and, with the current situation, could lead to unpredictable results.
Chris Iggo, CIO Core Investments at AXA Investment Managers, says: “I think the first few months of 2022 are going to be difficult. “In Europe, things may be very ugly in the United Kingdom, where the government is attacking on many fronts, and in the spring of the French presidential election.”
“Growing geopolitical tensions (especially between the US and China) are likely to help some countries (such as Vietnam and India) that benefit from the reorganization of supply chains. Private credit strategies targeting the Asia-Pacific region may be well-placed. , says Emmanuel Deblanc, Head of Private Markets at Allianz (DE 🙂 Global Investors.
5. And, of course, COVID-19
It goes without saying that Covid and its new variants should be considered in 2022. Two years ago, a pandemic broke out, acting as the cause of many of the factors described above. Nearly 24 months later, new mutations in the virus continue to plague markets. Even with vaccines, it will be an unresolved problem in the short / medium term.
Experts at Allianz Global Investors say “economic growth looks set to slow after the ‘bottom-up’ rebound we saw in 2021. It is likely that COVID-19 uncertainties and supply chain h the main one. ‘
This surprise, both in terms of Covid’s direct impact and secondary factors, as the economy “re-normalizes”, could create volatile opportunities and periods in the market in 2022.
Also read:
See ours.
[ad_2]
Source link
