USA and Turkey: Not finished yet Military

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On October 31, US President Joe Biden and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met on the sidelines of a G20 rally in Rome to put an end to weeks of speculation about whether such a summit would take place. Earlier this month, a short-lived diplomatic crisis demonstrated how close relations between the two countries are.
David Satterfield, who was threatened with deportation by US Ambassador to Ankara and nine other Western envoys, was asked to release imprisoned Turkish philanthropist Osman Kavala after an action that saw the Turkish government embroiled in internal affairs.
Biden and Erdogan’s meeting, the second of its kind this year, said the lines of communication were open. But there is no denying that Turkish-American relations are at an all-time low.
On the Turkish side, the perception that the US is a reliable ally and trying to weaken Ankara is growing and has been fueling anti-Americanism for the past five to six years. Washington decided in Syria to arm the Kurdistan Workers ‘Party (PKK) affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in 2015, calling Ankara – and its Western allies – a “terrorist” organization, and accusing the US of participating in a 2016 coup attempt against Erdogan’s government. everyone has encouraged that feeling.
From the US perspective, Turkey’s decision to promote closer relations with Russia has raised concerns. The Turkish acquisition of Russia’s S-400 defense systems in 2017 caused shockwaves from Washington, which has been wary of Russia’s renaissance.
The handover of advanced weapons to Ankara in 2019 led to sanctions against Turkish officials a year later, under the American Penal Code (CAATSA). More importantly, it led to the expulsion of Turkey from the international consortium behind the development of a new generation of fighter jets, the F-35. Erdogan further angered Washington by saying that the Turkish government wants to buy another range of surface-to-air missile systems.
So with all the tension between them, are Turkey and the US on the brink of rupture? Probably not. Neither Biden nor Erdogan are pushing for a complete decoupling. In fact, the Turkish government hopes to reach an agreement with the Biden administration to buy 40 F-16 fighter jets and 80 modernization kits to upgrade older military aircraft. Turkey wants to upgrade its F-16 air force. He is also keen to reclaim the $ 1.4 billion advance on the F-35 project.
At a time when all its neighbors, from Greece to Russia to Iran, are improving their military capabilities, Turkey cannot be left behind. Despite all its desire to assert its strategic autonomy, Ankara is still dependent on Western military technology. It is also committed to NATO, which, in times of uncertainty and as Russia builds its military force on the shores of the Black Sea, remains a key part of national security. It is not surprising that most Turkish citizens continue to support membership in the Alliance.
Its weakened domestic economy and the lira, which has lost 80 percent of its value in the last decade, also highlight its dependence on Turkey’s international financial markets. The divorce scenario with the US will not be good for economic stability. If the ambassadors had been expelled and there had been a complete crisis with the West, foreign investors would have thrown away assets called the lira en masse, sending the currency into free fall.
The US also still needs, in the words of Secretary of State Anthony Blink, what it calls its “strategic ally”. The Turkish military remains key to NATO’s eastern wing, where Russia faces a daunting challenge. Turkey’s sale of Bayraktar TB2 drones to Ukraine, now deployed against Russian-leaning separatists on the battlefield of Donbas, shows its strategic value.
Ankara has also contributed to all NATO initiatives aimed at calming allies in the Black Sea, including the regular exercises and rotation of ships in the US and other treaty member states. Finally, the role of Turkey in the Middle East and North Africa, especially in Libya and Syria, which competes with Russia, is another reason for Washington not to brag about Ankara. The same is true in Afghanistan, with plans to secure an airport in Kabul that Ankara does not have.
The US and Turkey are working in a gray area. The alliance is hanging by a thread, but it is too early to signal its demise. Transactionalism is a daily order and it is likely that both sides will deal with the issue head on.
Biden and Erdogan will therefore be able to cooperate in a limited way in NATO. An agreement on the F-16 is also not difficult, despite opposition from Congress. The U.S. will also not be intimidated by a new Turkish operation in Syria if it maintains the rules of conflict established between the two military on the ground. However, he would continue to watch Turkey’s commitment to Russia and, increasingly, to China. Biden will also talk more about Turkish domestic politics, unlike Trump. There will be more friction in the future.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
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