S Korean Presidential Survey: Choosing the Lesser of Two Diseases | Elections

The South Korean presidential election, scheduled for March 9, 2022, seems to have turned into a duel between the death of Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party (DP) and Yoon Seok-youl of the main opposition Conservative People’s Power Party. . Third-party candidates for the presidency, such as Sim Sang-jeung of the left-wing Justice Party and Ahn Cheol-sook of the Centrist People’s Party, have barely had enough support to run for office.

However, neither Lee nor Yoon provide South Koreans with a clear view of the country’s future; most importantly, there does not appear to be a specific policy proposal to protect South Korean livelihoods amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead, they are using most of their energy to attack each other: the two candidates have repeatedly accused each other of corruption, and have also suggested that the opponent will “go to jail” after the election.

So it is not surprising that the majority of South Koreans appear to be enthusiastic about the election, as many have stated that they have no choice but to vote for a candidate who they perceive to be “the lesser of the two evils”. Recent polls are also showing the image of an undecided nation frustrated with the opportunities it offers.

A national poll conducted by the Korea Society Opinion Institute from December 10 to 11, for example, found that Yoon had a 42 percent approval rating against Lee’s 40.6 percent (the difference between the candidates was 1.4% of the survey +/). margin of error 3.1 percent). Meanwhile, in a Channel A poll conducted on December 1, more than 50 percent of respondents said they did not like Lee and Yoon.

Therefore, the election result is still very clear. There are, however, a number of factors that can help voters decide which candidate is actually “the lesser of the two evils.”

One factor that will play a key role in determining the outcome of the election is the allegations of corruption suffered by Lee and Yoon (as well as evils of their relatives). Lee, a former governor of Gyeonggi province, has been linked to a major land development scandal. Yoon, meanwhile, has been involved in political turmoil while serving as chief prosecutor.

Yoon proposed and Lee agreed to a special lawyer to investigate the two charges. But neither the government DP nor the opposition PPP have yet to take the necessary steps to start the process: it seems that the parties are calling for independent investigations into the behavior of their candidates. While there is no certainty that these investigations will advance before the election, if they do, Lee or Yoon, or both, may be forced out of the race depending on the findings.

The alliance that Lee and Yoon can form with third-party candidates is another factor that may help determine the outcome of the election. In fact, if the race continues to be as tight as it is now in the new year, third-party candidates can become kings by putting their support behind Yoon or Lee. Lee would seek the support of the Justice Party Sim, and Yoon would seek the support of the People’s Party Ahn. But as two third-party candidates began campaigning to shake the dominance of the two main parties in the election, it is not certain that such an alliance will be formed.

In this context, another crucial factor in deciding who will win the March election will be the ability of Yoon and Lee to ensure unity within their parties.

Following Lee’s appointment in October, the government’s DP approval rating fell 13.9 percentage points (from 63.3 percent to 49.4 percent) in the southwestern region of Honam, the DP’s historic stronghold. That decline was largely due to anger among supporters of former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon, who ranks second in Lee’s primary candidacy, whose DP rejected an appeal against the primary result. Although Lee Nak-yon eventually accepted defeat, Lee has yet to ensure the unity of the party. To achieve this, Lee Nak-yon will have to embed his campaign in some way, as he still has strong DP support in the Honam region, and has a wide range of personal attractions for middle-class centrist voters, especially in Seoul.

As a newcomer to politics, Yoon initially struggled uphill to gain the support of all factions in his party, largely as a result of months of public strife over election preparations between party leader Lee Jun-seo. Leek expresses that he feels as if he is sidelined in the process. However, this dispute was resolved earlier this month, with Lee and Yoon jointly addressing the issue. Yoon later brought in Kim Chong-in, a well-known political strategist, to chair his election committee, with the apparent approval of the party leader. However, many analysts have warned that the power struggle between the party leader and the presidential candidate could be revived in a different form in the coming days.

In general, neither Yoon nor Lee have appeared in this race as a skilled politician who can solve many of South Korea’s problems as president. The biggest obstacle to their success seems to be the disillusionment of voters, especially young voters, with them and their parties. In fact, despite many scandals and failures, the two major political parties in the country have hardly changed their policy approach or developed inspiring new policies that could lead the nation to many internal and external difficulties.

This disillusionment has already led young voters to revolt in the April mayoral election and suffer a disastrous defeat of the government DP. And at the same time, the annual Korean Society Satisfaction Survey conducted by Seoul National University showed that six out of 10 Koreans – more than 58 percent of the population – are in a state of “chronic anger”, mostly “due to immorality and corruption.” political parties ”.

With most Koreans still drowning in domestic debt and important politicians including presidential candidates not showing a clear plan to revive them, public anger at the political class is as strong as ever.

South Koreans, especially young voters, want a leader who will increase social mobility and end their financial struggles. They also want a leader who will end corruption and make South Korean society fairer and fairer. Although many voters may be neither Yoon nor Lee as leaders, they will watch their moves closely in the coming months, and will eventually vote for the candidate who is “the lesser of the two evils”.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial attitude of Al Jazeera.