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Demography is fate. For decades America has had the economic and geopolitical fruits of a high birth rate. Between 1990 and 2010, fertility levels in the U.S. were higher than the average in developed countries except for Israel, Iceland, and New Zealand.
So what does it mean that the U.S. birth rate is on the verge of plunging below the latest European trend rate? In 2007, before the Great Recession, the U.S. fertility rate, which is the number of births a woman will have in her lifetime, was 2.12. By 2019, before hitting Covid-19, it had dropped to 1.71.
Data from the provisional CDC for 2020 show that the total fertility rate has fallen to a record 1.64, a rate roughly the same as in Europe over the last five years. If the current trend continues, it is likely to give way to last year’s closure (it is more severe to get pregnant in a pandemic if you are no longer with your partner), then the New World may have less fertility than the Old World as soon as this year.
So much for what Economist Nicholas Eberstadt He called America’s “demographic exception”. Over the decades, the U.S. birth rate has contributed to the growth of the buoy, which is a function of people and productivity and the global situation. But according to a report by the Global Aging Institute and the Terry Group, titled “The End of U.S. Demographic Exceptionalism,” all the factors that have driven America’s tremendous fertility — immigration and religious beliefs and long-term economic optimism — are now in decline.
The author of the report, GAI chief Richard Jackson, noted that a level of humility is needed among demographers (“no one saw Baby Boom coming”). However, there is little reason to think that the U.S. birth rate will rise any time soon.
Yes, the massive post-Covida stimulus has driven animal spirits. But Millennials are “scarred generations,” says Jackson, who in 2008 was overwhelmed by a major financial crisis and a pandemic. “People have children when they feel financially secure,” he noted. For loaded youngsters debt, because they can’t buy houses and families can’t at the same time as their parents, that feeling is elusive.
There has been a sharp drop in birth rates, especially among Hispanics, who are blamed by Jackson and other experts for a sense of economic and cultural weakness that has certainly intensified in the xenophobic years of Donald Trump’s presidency. Net immigration, which boosts the overall fertility rate, has been halved about five years ago, although the cost of having and caring for a baby has increased.
President Biden, of course, has made health, education and kindergarten a huge priority for his administration. That’s good for job creation and productivity, and it can also help the birth rate on the margins if women think it’s easier to balance work and family.
There is very little record of “birth” policies to increase fertility. Many European countries, for example, have much better social security systems and state-funded childcare systems than the US, and yet smaller families have become normal.
It is possible to strengthen growth in general, and therefore to have a better sense of economic optimism, which is a better way to start the birth rate. Republicans who are concerned about Biden’s stimulus plan have been doing so.
That is why the US will need creative and bipartisan thinking to address the magnitude of its demographic slowdown and the potential economic and geopolitical consequences. Decreased demographics and related costs (such as caring for the elderly and Medicare and Social Security indebtedness) are a major reason It is anticipated by the Congressional Budget Office lower productivity and slower growth in the US in the future.
Returning to work for women who have received a disproportionate blow to the unemployment associated with Covid-19 is an important way to change the tide. But it is also reducing immigration less and finding ways to re-enter the labor market with seniors with a high level of education and experience. “Older people are not only the ones who use America’s least resources, they are also the fastest growing population,” Jackson says.
We need them, and they need work. The boom following the asset pandemic has led to the early withdrawal of many booms along with labor force disruptions. But given that median retirement savings In 2019, Americans between the ages of 55 and 65 had only $ 144,000 per household, so it’s hard to imagine that working longer hours isn’t normal.
The public sector would help encourage the employment of older people by reducing payroll for the elderly, or by making Medicare, rather than private insurance, a priority health care for older Americans.
Today, private insurance is the first port for those still working. This creates costs for companies, who would be willing to hire more older people if they didn’t even bear the direct burden of health care costs.
For most of its history, the U.S. has been obsessed with youth. Its future can be determined by how old it is.
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