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Afghan leaders Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah will meet with U.S. President Joe Biden in the White House on Friday for a high-stakes debate as they shape the future of Afghanistan when the U.S. invades and nearly 20 years have passed.
Biden is expected to offer the presidency Guarantees of US protection analyzes said Ghani and Abdullah are likely to put pressure on Ghani and Abdullah to unite the political factions of their rivals in the face of Taliban attacks.
In the meantime, Ghana and Abdullah are expected to travel to Biden to make clear and concise commitments on economic and diplomatic support, as well as to continue technical assistance to Afghan military forces.
“The security situation is worrying and is getting worse,” said Scott Word, director of the U.S. Peace Institute’s Afghanistan program, who recently returned from a trip to the Asian country.
Fighting between Afghan government forces and the armed group has intensified as the Taliban intensified its military campaign, according to Reuters news services and other reports. Since May, fighters have taken over areas surrounding the provincial capitals, giving the Taliban control of vast territories, a senior UN official warned the Security Council on 22 June.
“It is undeniable that it is possible to slip into serious scenarios,” said Deborah Lions, head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan.
On Thursday, Biden said he planned to discuss with President Ghani and the head of the reconciliation council Abdullah plans to launch thousands of Afghans who helped Americans abroad.
“Those who are helped will not be left behind,” Biden said. “They will be as welcome here as anyone else who has put our lives at risk.”
Members of the U.S. Congress are pushing the Biden administration to expedite visa approvals They helped the Afghans U.S. forces have left the country and stayed speaks of evacuation A large number of Afghanistan to the US island of Guam.
The U.S. says equipment and troops are more than halfway through the withdrawal. The withdrawal of forces, carried out in conjunction with NATO troops, could be completed as soon as July, before Biden determined September 11, the 20th anniversary of the US invasion.
In fact, US withdrawal it has caught Afghan political and civil society leaders by surprise and has dealt a psychological blow to Afghan security forces and has dashed people’s hopes and expectations according to Word.
Earlier in the week The Taliban took the key border crossing In the northern border of Afghanistan with Tajikistan in the town of Shir Khan Bandar, government forces seized ammunition and armored vehicles and sent customs personnel fleeing for safety, according to Reuters.
“The Taliban’s ability to take over the districts has surprised many Afghans, and I think the region,” Worden told Al Jazeera.
The Taliban’s success on the battlefield has boosted the group’s military wing, reducing incentives to engage in peace talks. “It changes the strategic calculation in terms of dialogue and opportunities for peace,” Worden said.
White House and Pentagon officials have stated that President Biden has decided to withdraw US and NATO forces and that the deadline for the departure of all U.S. troops is September.
As the Taliban attack could lead to a review of U.S. plans, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told the media on June 21 that “the situation is dynamic” and “we remember that this schedule may change and conditions may change as conditions change,” Kirby said.
Asked about Afghanistan in a June 23 media appearance, White House press secretary Jen Psaki stressed that the Pentagon continues to withdraw U.S. troops in an orderly manner and stressed that the U.S. has not seen attacks by the Taliban on U.S. forces.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and General Mark Milley, the U.S. military chief, have assured Congress that the Afghan army will be able to face a challenge also the lack of U.S. forces from the Taliban. But they also said al-Qaeda could regain strength to attack the U.S. within two years – the reason it invaded in 2001.
But after the Taliban marched through northern Afghanistan last week, U.S. intelligence agencies concluded that the Afghan government could fall six months after the U.S. withdrawal ended, according to a report published in the Wall Street Journal, citing officials aware of the new assessment. .
U.S. military planners have been assessing the ability to carry out airstrikes in Afghanistan from bases far from elsewhere, when they should be needed to protect U.S. interests and its allies after troops flee, U.S. Navy Commander Frank McKenzie told U.S. Voice of America earlier . This month.
Biden’s withdrawal schedule has been “much faster than it should be” and Ghana is likely to be persuaded by the administration to adjust its approach, said Lisa Curtis, director of the Indo-Pacific program at the New American Security Center in Washington. .
The Biden administration should allow contractors to stay in Afghanistan to continue providing support to the Afghan Air Force, which is based on U.S. technical assistance, Curtis said.
Biden “shows that the U.S. is turning its tail and abandoning the country because it is a narrative that is being built right now,” Curtis told Al Jazeera.
But under a February 2020 agreement negotiated between the U.S. and the Taliban under a previous Donald Trump order, Biden promises to withdraw, with an estimated 16,000 U.S. contractors in Afghanistan leaving when they leave troops.
The Afghan government was not part of those negotiations, and peace talks between him and the Taliban, which should have been the next step, have been stalled.
In the longer term, the Biden administration relies on regional powers, including Pakistan, Russia, Turkey, China and Iran. the main civil war Analysts say they support Afghanistan and a peace process.
Biden discussed the US withdrawal and the security situation in Kabul when he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish Recep Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week in Geneva and Brussels.
In the White House, Biden will give “peace of mind” to Ghana and Abdullah, who will continue to support the Afghan government financially and diplomatically after the US leaves the U.S., said RAND Corporation policy researcher Jason Campbell.
Biden is likely to speak openly to Ghani and Abdullah “behind closed doors” to talk about the tough political commitments between Afghans that will be needed to present a united front against the Taliban, Campbell told Al Jazeera.
“We know from previous experience that Biden has had no problem delivering that language about his expectations.”
They represent the rival parties of Ghani and Abdullah. The two men clashed with the results of the 2019 presidential election. Eventually, Ghani reached an agreement to retain the presidency and Abdullah to assume the title of head of the reconciliation council. They both previously ruled in the national government union after fighting for months in 2016 over who won those presidential elections.
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