America is back, and everyone wants to focus on China

From a European perspective, Joe Bidenena a week’s visit could hardly have been better. Four years have passed Donald Trump – NATO’s low defense spending, trade surpluses, the release of US generosity and acting as a “geopolitical enemy” – Europe longed for Biden’s diplomatic balm.

The 46th President of the United States did not disappoint. America’s friendship was “ordinary,” Biden said; Europe’s security was America’s “sacred duty”. In addition to strategic calm, Biden also removed US penalty tariffs in Europe and suspended them the long-running Boeing-Airbus subsidy dispute.

The relief among European officials was visible. He mentioned Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission President of America Like “dear Joe” – it would be hard to imagine that love wasn’t used for many of Biden’s predecessors, not just Trump. “The language and tone of Biden was all that Europeans wanted,” says Jeremy Shapiro, director of research at the European Council on External Relations.

They remain long-term differences, above low European defense spending. But Biden’s larger travel goals, which occasionally coincided with the G7 summit in Cornwall and Geneva, began with the Indo-Pacific, which had more to do with the Atlantic than with the summit.

Prior to Biden’s first attempt at the presidency abroad, it was speculated where his strategic priority lay. Was it a competition between democracy and autocracy, managing a new era of great power competition, reaffirming US-led multilateralism, or creating coalitions to deal with the pandemic and global warming? The answer is this “All of the above”.

But Biden’s trip said the most important thing. His dominance the concern is China. Biden’s very famous Summit of Democracy, which received G7 citations, has been postponed until next year. No place was specified. In contrast, China’s challenge appeared three times in the G7 communiqué and was first mentioned by NATO – an alliance supposedly about defending the North Atlantic.

“Biden’s basic message to his European friends was, ‘Don’t worry guys, I have my back. Now let me do my real business in the Indo-Pacific,'” said Robin Niblett, director of Chatham House, a London-based think tank. He was careful about the Chinese language. But he coiled everything. “

China was also unspoken on top of the US-Russia summit. The contrast between Biden’s meeting with Putin in Geneva and Trump’s famous 2018 solo parade in Helsinki was perhaps the most striking feature of Biden’s trip. Unlike Biden’s home reviewsHe accused Putin of giving him a gift he did not deserve to appear on the same stage, as most Europeans were happy to see him speak.

“Negotiating with your opponents is what diplomacy is all about, as long as you take assistants and notes,” says Fiona Hill, as Trump’s adviser to Russia, who did not attend a private meeting with Putin. “It doesn’t make sense to not talk. Should Biden refuse to meet Xi Jinping because China has concentration camps?

Pragmatic about Russia

An amazing aspect of Biden’s vision was his own Putin’s business treatment. He refused to give sermons on democracy, even threatening Putin with “destructive” consequences if Alexei Navalny, the head of Russia’s banned opposition, was killed in prison. He also vowed to oppose it future Russian cyberattacks last year after SolarWind went deep into U.S. government systems. They both agreed to create a nuclear task force and another on cybersecurity, which some see as the current equivalent of Cold War gun talks. The final process is likely to be fraught with mistrust – groups that believe Russia or the US are linked to Russia have visited major disruptions in the US at very low cost. But the fact that the team is now Putin may think twice.

In contrast, Biden made only fleeting references to “values” and “freedom”. The only one of the two who referred to public ideals – albeit trollingly – was Putin, who praised Biden’s “moral values” and willingness to talk about his family. Again, the contrast with Trump was striking.

“Trump was always seen as transactional and Biden as sentimental,” says Stephen Wertheim, founder of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. “In practice, Biden was pragmatic with Putin, while Trump was obsessed with status and prestige.”

The explicit goal was to make US-Russia relations so dangerous and unstable. Whether or not Biden has been successful will be a test of dogs that don’t bark, foreign intoxications of Russian dissidents, and non-occurring Western cyberattacks. It will take time to evaluate this. It is difficult to prove negative. Biden’s implicit goal was to calm Putin’s paranoia.

Biden was surprised to describe Russia at home as a “great power” and Putin as a “decent enemy.” He was also criticized last month for imposing sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Germany. Biden also gave Geneva a brief summary of rumors that Ukraine would join NATO. The word “calm” has begun to translate into the Washington dictionary.

However, there was a goal to achieve Biden’s flattery. Some call him the “Henry Kissinger Reverse,” after renowned national security adviser Richard Nixon, who made secret trips to Beijing in the early 1970s to capitalize on the Sino-Soviet division. China eventually moved away from the Soviet bloc. Beijing is now the main partner. The longer-term hope is to boost the rift between Russia and China.

“The more the Biden treats Russia with respect than the big power, that’s what Putin wants, the easier it will be to free Russia from China’s embrace,” Hill says.

This approach means reducing Biden’s “democracy versus autocracy” framing. America would play autocratic Russia for treating China like a little brother. Some American partners, including France, Japan and India, are trying to forge closer ties with Russia in a bid to weaken China’s ties.

“It would be a bad geopolitical practice for America at the moment not to do the‘ reverse Kissinger ’,” says Shapiro. “At the very least, America should stop pushing Russia into the arms of China. But it will take more than one presidential term to complete. “

European relief

Biden’s geopolitical chess game is full of obstacles. The main one is Europe’s desire to see China in the same way existential concerns as America does. The continent trades more with China than the US. Biden received mentions of the Chinese threat in various summit communiqués. But joint statements are not the same thing as concrete actions.

For example, there is a long way to go before Europe can implement a ban across the continent on sensitive Chinese technology, such as the Huawei 5G network.

Biden’s skepticism about Europe is also limited to whether he will be re-elected in 2024 – once Trump’s legacy is bitten and he is twice ashamed. Europeans kindly listened to Biden’s view of democracy and autocracy. But their biggest concern is about the future of U.S. democracy. Will Biden’s “America is back” mantra last in his tenure?

“Europeans are as obsessed with America’s internal divisions as they are with the future of global democracy,” says Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the American Progress Center, a liberal think tank. “A European official told me that he thinks about America the way an amputee feels that a missing body is still there. Will it grow again?”

The lightness greeted by Biden in Europe suggests that he has convinced allies that America is at least temporarily back on track. The way Biden conveyed that message was also appreciated. Instead of talking about the U.S. returning to the head of the table, Biden said America was “back at the table”. Rather than being an American leader, he was a “leader with American allies.” These modulations are insignificant. But they recently showed a lack of sensitivity. Europeans also noted that Biden spent hours preparing for each of his summits.

“It was almost awesome to see professional diplomas working again,” says Niblett. “Biden’s team has experience and understands the game.”

Another lens in China

However, there was nothing to disguise that the Atlantic is no longer the most important geopolitical theater in the American world. This distinction applies to the Indo-Pacific. Although it was Biden’s first trip to the presidency, it was his first virtual summit in March with the heads of the leadership Quad – USA, Japan, India and Australia. Quad is not a formal alliance. But it has a bigger role in Biden’s plans than NATO’s future.

“If you mentioned the Quad in the Obama years, people thought of it in America, Britain, France, and Germany,” Hill says. “Now he can only say the Indo-Pacific.”

For now, transatlantic relations are moving to a phase where they are better resolved. It will be revealed in the coming months whether Biden’s stony vision of Russia will bear fruit. At a press conference given by Putin on Wednesday, he was asked if there is any trust now between him and the US president. “There is no happiness in life,” Putin replied. “There’s just a mirror on the horizon.”

With the removal of Russian gloom, Putin could give a speech on the limits of thought at the end of history. Biden’s goal is clear – the stable global order is the first of its kind in America. It is likely that this horizon is always out of reach.