Biden greeted North Korea’s interim steps with skepticism

Before winning the U.S. election, North Korea called Joe Biden a “fool of the low IQ,” while presidential candidate Kim Jong Un called him a “cap.”

But when the White House announced it was ending its policy on North Korea, there is growing skepticism as to whether the president will back down from that antagonistic stance and commit to an armed nuclear dictator.

Few details of the plan have been announced, but many foreign policy experts believe the US president has already reduced Washington’s attention to North Korea – a priority for Donald Trump’s administration – because Biden wants to tackle domestic problems. sharp attention in China.

Former CIA analyst Sue Mi Terry, who briefed North Korea on President George W Bush and Barack Obama, believed Biden’s policy was designed as an “action to sustain, not a breakthrough.”

“The administration is not spreading its proposal. He realizes that he is unlikely to “solve” the North Korean problem; it is likely to keep North Korea silent so that it can concentrate on deeper priorities in other places that can be resolved, ”he said.

Following a month-long policy review, administration officials said Biden will “explore diplomacy” within a “calibrated practical approach”. Moreover, expectations have been rapidly declining, as the last four presidents were not convinced to convince North Korea nuclear weapons.

“We have… A very clear policy that focuses on diplomacy… It is up to North Korea to decide whether or not it wants to participate on that basis,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday.

After the review confused period US-North Korea links. After escalating hostility and gun tests, Trump broke protocol and met with the North Korean leader three times. While easing tensions, Trump has failed long-term agreement.

But Biden has quickly distanced himself from Trump and Obama, who for eight years served him and many of his foreign policy groups.

“Our policy will not focus on getting a great bargain, nor will it be based on‘ strategic patience, ’” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, referring to Trump’s theatrical summit and Obama’s years of inactivity about North Korea.

Pyongyang on Sunday dismissed Biden’s “intention to continue enforcement.” . . enemy policy “and warned that” over time the US will find itself in a very serious situation “.

Soo Kim, a former CIA North Korean analyst, now in the Rand Corporation think-tank, expected the Kim regime resume military provocations. “There’s little Pyongyang holding on to,” he said.

Last month, an annual threat assessment by the U.S. intelligence community warned that North Korea would pose a “growing threat” to America. Kim believed that he would gain international recognition as an international activist over time, and “probably doesn’t see enough level of pressure on his regime to demand a fundamental change in his outlook.”

Terry, who is at the Center for Strategic and International Research, said it made “logical sense” to offer North Korea a “step-by-step agreement” that would essentially propose easing some sanctions in exchange for limited nuclear concessions.

“But in practice, it’s unlikely to work,” he said. “If Kim sticks to his decision, the talks won’t go anywhere and I’m sure Biden’s team would be very surprised.”

Complicating the situation, Washington is also trying to manage Seoul’s expectations favors relief from punishment and a greater economic engagement with Pyongyang and Tokyo, with a much tougher line.

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan Biden told the Financial Times that diplomacy with North Korea will be “partly bilateral and partly favorable.”

This formulation indicated another priority for the Biden administration: not to avoid differences between Japan and South Korea in response to China’s rise at a time when the U.S. is trying to work with allies.

Biden’s consideration of North Korea reflected significant divisions among Washington experts as to how far the engagement with North Korea might have been.

“If I believe that North Korea will not denuclearize, that is the goal [Biden administration’s] the policy should be to reduce the risk of these nuclear weapons, ”said former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry.

Despite the upheavals in Pyongyang, others believe that Kim has not completely ruled out diplomacy because he wants to alleviate the damage caused by economic sanctions.

Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a North Korean expert at King’s College London, said there were several “positive signs,” including a de facto moratorium on a test of nuclear and continental ballistic missile testing at Kim’s 2018 summit with Trump in Singapore.

Preparations were also underway for “two-way” talks: North Korean diplomats and foreign non-governmental experts took part in the back-to-back talks.

“They have certainly left the door open,” said Glyn Ford, a former member of the European Parliament, who has close ties to senior North Korean officials. “I don’t know how open the door is.”