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On Sunday, Bulgarians will go to the polls in three months for the second parliamentary elections.
Following the April 4 vote, an early vote was held as the GERB party in the Conservative prime minister’s government, Boyko Borisov, did not get enough support to form a new cabinet.
In May, Borisov resigned as prime minister for three terms since 2009 and handed over power to a caretaker government.
Since then, several political scandals have plagued the country for seven million, as the interim cabinet seeks to find the corrupt practices of government officials linked to the GERB.
In pre-election polls GERB is almost tied to the group There is Such a People, the party that came in second in the April vote and led the popular Slavi Trifonov interview session.
Far-right parties that were members of the GERB coalition in the previous government will not be able to exceed the 4 per cent limit on entering parliament.
Al Jazeera analysts said in the July 11 election that Borisov’s party would again not be able to win enough votes to form a coalition, which would end the former prime minister’s ten-year tenure.
Some say this could also mark the end of his political career.
‘Election campaign trumpeting’
Since taking office on May 12, the caretaker government has regularly publicly disclosed information about corruption practices, embezzlement and legal violations it finds in government ministries and state institutions.
The administration has launched investigations into state funding agreements, examined infrastructure projects, launched investigations into malpractice in government hospitals, replaced police and customs chiefs across the country, and properly documented citizen reports of alleged corrupt practices.
Allegations made by the business sector against the previous government have also been made public, and one businessman claimed before a parliamentary committee that Borisov had personally threatened him.
In a separate complaint, Interior Minister Boyko Rashkov said another businessman had given him confidence that Borisov had suggested he could kill him and give his body to his family.
The former prime minister has dismissed these accusations as a political campaign against him, and has announced that he may be arrested soon.
“Don’t be afraid, I’m the one who’s crossed,” Borisov said in a May speech by young members of the GERB. “What is happening now as a coup is not at all legal.”
He also questioned the compulsory use of voting machines in Sunday’s election, accusing the opposition party of “manipulating” them.
According to Anna Krasteva, a professor of political science at the New Bulgarian University, the rhetoric of Borisov’s campaign shows that she has been left without a strategic move.
“All they have left are tactical moves and they’re ridiculous. He will support the Trumpization of the election campaign, “he told Al Jazeera.” This is a categorical start to the end of Borisov. In front of the Bulgarian people, he is in favor of corruption. “
Penalties of the Magnitsky Act
However, Petar Cholakov, an associate professor of sociology at the Institute for the Study of Society and Knowledge in the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, is too early to call for an end to Borisov and his party.
“The situation is quite dynamic … If the so-called protest parties are unable to form a government after the election, that could work in favor of the GERB,” he said, referring to the three parties that supported the anti-GERB protests over the summer. 2020 – There is this Country, Democratic Bulgaria and Stand Up! Thugs out !.
And despite alleged corruption scandals, some of Borisov’s allies abroad maintain his support.
“I follow what is happening in Bulgaria and, Boyko, you have a lot of work to do. PPE supports you, we are firmly behind you. Trust us, ”Manfred Weber, head of the European Parliament’s People’s Party, said in June.
О On July 3, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met Borisov in Istanbul and praised the migration policies of his “true friend and brother”.
It seems that the administration of American President Joe Biden is sending another signal.
Shortly after the interim government took office in May, U.S. Ambassador Hero Mustafa met with Prime Minister Stefan Yanev and several of his ministers and paid an extraordinary visit to the National Revenue Agency.
Then, on June 2, the Biden administration announced sanctions under the Magnitsky Act against several Bulgarian politicians and businessmen, including former MP Delyan Peevski of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRL).
According to some, Borisov has a close relationship with the media of the convicted tycoons.
Cholakov said Washington could see Peevsky’s alleged dealings with Bulgarian passports and links to Russian energy projects as a threat to U.S. interests.
But penalties are also a sign of condemnation.
“The United States is expressing its dissatisfaction with this model of governance [of GERB-MLR], ”he said.
Third election
GERB and There is Such a People are both voting about 20 percent.
The other two parties that could join a possible coalition against the GERB – Democratic Bulgaria and Stand up! Thugs out! – They are between 12% and 5%, respectively.
The Bulgarian Socialist Party is at 15% and the MRL at 11%.
But according to political adviser Vesislava Tancheva, a surprise could arise because of the voting of a machine, which would limit vote buying and avoid some minority communities that do not read Bulgarian.
This can affect the results of the MRL, mainly because the party is traditionally sponsored by minorities.
Some supporters of GERB’s big business can also withdraw their support by reducing the so-called “controlled vote” by ordering large employers to vote for a specific party that defends their interests.
These tendencies may not give enough votes to a coalition against GERB.
“It is very possible to go to the third election this year. And that is an opportunity that all parties, except GERB, are discussing internally,” Tancheva said.
He believes the third election could put pressure on the GERB and that another interim government would investigate its business and pursue judicial reform, which could speed up prosecution in corruption cases.
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