Chinese policies “could cut millions of births in Uyghur in Xinjiang” | New Civil Rights

Chinese birth control policies could reduce births by 2.6 to 4.5 million mostly by Uyghur Muslims and other ethnic minorities in southern Xinjiang within 20 years, up to a third of the region’s projected minimum population, according to a new study by a German researcher.

The report, which was shared only with Reuters before publication, covers a cache of research behind Chinese birth control policies by Chinese academics and officials on Xinjiang’s birth control, with births falling 48.7% in 2017 and 2019, according to official data.

Adrian Zenz’s research examines growing calls among some western countries to find out whether China’s actions in Xinjiang are genocide, a charge that Beijing passionately denies.

The research conducted by Zenz is aimed at examining the long-term population impact of Peer repression in the western region of multi-year repression. Rights groups, researchers and some residents say policies have set limits on the birth of Uyghurs and especially Muslim ethnic minorities, transfers of workers to other regions and the inclusion of approximately one million Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities in a camp network.

“This (research and analysis) really shows the Chinese government’s intention for a long-term plan for the Uyghur population,” Zenz told Reuters.

The Chinese government has not made public any official goal to reduce the proportion of Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities in Xinjiang. But based on official birth data, demographic projections and an analysis of ethnic proportions proposed by Chinese academics and officials, Zenz believes that Beijing’s policies could increase the Chinese population in southern Xin Chinese to about 25 percent from about 8.4% today.

“This goal can only be achieved if they do what they are doing, which completely eliminates Uighur birth rates,” Zenz said.

‘Pure nonsense’

China has previously said that the current decline in the birth rates of ethnic minorities is due to the full implementation of birth rates and development factors in the region, increasing per capita income and wider access to family planning services.

“The so-called” genocide “in Xinjiang is pure nonsense,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry told Reuters. “It is a manifestation of the latest causes of forces against the United States and Western China and the manifestations of those who suffer from Synophobia.”

Official data showing the decline in Xinjiang’s birth rates between 2017 and 2019 “do not reflect the real situation” and the Uighurian birth rates remain higher in the Xin ethnic group than the Han ethnic group, the ministry added.

The new study compares population projections made by the government-led Chinese Academy of Sciences to the Chinese-led Academy of Sciences with official data on birth rates and official birth rate data and described by Beijing as a measure to “optimize the population” for ethnic minorities in Xinjiang. 2017.

He found that the population of ethnic minorities in southern Xinjiang-dominated Xinjiang would be between 8.6 and 10.5 million by 2040, according to new birth prevention policies. It compares with previous data on birth policies implemented by Chinese researchers and 13.14 million projected using data currently with a population of about 9.47 million.

Zenz, an independent researcher at the Foundation for the Memory of Victims of Communism, a two-party nonprofit organization in Washington, DC, has previously condemned Beijing’s arrest of Uyghurs for massive labor transfers and births that have been critical of China’s policies. reduction in Xinjiang.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has complained that it has “deceived” people with the data and in response to questions from Reuters, “its lies are not worth denying.”

Zenz’s research was approved by the Central Asian Survey on a quarterly basis for publication in academic journals on June 3 after peer review.

Reuters shared the research and methodology with more than one expert on population analysis, birth prevention policies and international human rights law, saying the analysis and conclusions were appropriate.

Some experts have warned that demographic projections over several decades may be caused by unforeseen factors. The Xinjiang government has not publicly set an official ethnic quota or population-size targets for the ethnic populations in southern Xinjiang, and the quotas used in the analysis are based on data proposed by Chinese officials and academics.

‘End the dominance of the Uighurs’

Behavior to prevent births among Uyghurs and other minorities contrasts sharply with China’s broad birth policies.

Last week, Beijing announced that the couple could have three children, more than two, since the 2016 policy to respond to China’s fast-growing old population was canceled in 2016 with a one-child policy. There was no reference to specific ethnicities in the ad.

Previously, the measures officially restricted the Uighur ethnic and minority groups in the country to two children, three in rural areas. However, historically Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities were partially excluded from these birthmarks as part of priority policies designed to benefit minority communities.

Some residents, researchers and rights groups say the new rules now in place are disproportionately affecting Islamic minorities, who are detained for exceeding birth quotas in China as well as in other places.

In a Communist Party record leaked in 2020, Zenz reported that an education camp in southern Karakax County in Xinjiang listed 149 of the 489 cases listed as birth violations as reasons for internment. China has called the list “manufacturing”.

Birth rates for ethnic minorities are tightly enforced in 2017 in Xinjiang, including the separation and sterilization of married couples, the use of intrauterine devices (IUDs) and abortions, three Uyghurs inside Xinjiang and a health official told Reuters.

Two people from Uyghur said they had direct family members who were arrested for having too many children. Reuters was unable to independently verify the arrests.

“He is not elected,” an official based in southern Xinjiang said, and asked not to be named because they fear retaliation from the local government. “Every Uighur has to fulfill … it’s an urgent job.”

The Xinjiang government did not respond to the question of whether birth limits are more strictly met against Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities. Xinjiang officials have previously said that all procedures are voluntary.

Still, in the Xinjiang counties with the most ethnic Uighurs, birth rates fell by 50.1% in 2019, for example, compared to a 19.7 percent drop in the majority of Han ethnic counties, according to official data collected by Zenz.

Zenz’s report says analyzes published by state-funded academics and officials from 2014 to 2020 show that tight policy implementation raises national security concerns and dilutes the Uyghur population, boosting Han migration and fostering loyalty to the judiciary. Communist Party.

For example, 15 documents created by state-funded academics and officials listed in the Zenz report contain comments from Xinjiang officials and state-affiliated academics that mention the need to increase the proportion of residents and reduce the proportion of Uyghurs or describe high concentration. Uyghurs as a threat to social stability.

“The problem in southern Xinjiang is mainly the unbalanced structure of the population … The proportion of the population there is too small,” said Liu Yilei, academic and deputy secretary general of the Xinjiang Communist Party’s Committee on Production and Construction. the organization, which has administrative authority in the region, told the Xinjiang University website on its July 2020 symposium.

Xinjiang said it must “end the dominance of the Uighur group,” Liao Zhaoyu, dean of Xinjiang’s Tarim University’s frontier history and geography institute, said in the 2015 academic year before fully complying with birth policies and a broader internship program. .

Liao did not respond to a request for comment. Liu could not comment. The Foreign Ministry did not state their remarks or intentions behind the policies.

Intend to destroy?

Zenz and other experts noted the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, which lists prevention born of an ethnic group as an act that can be classified as genocide.

The U.S. government and parliaments in countries like the United Kingdom and Canada have described policies to prevent China’s births and mass arrests as genocide.

However, some academics and politicians have said that Beijing does not have enough evidence to meet the threshold for deciding the genocide to partially or completely destroy the ethnic population.

No formal criminal charges have been filed against Chinese or Xinjiang officials because there is no evidence and knowledge of regional policies. Prosecuting officials would also be complex and would require a large bar of evidence.

Moreover, China is not the party of the International Criminal Court (ICC) party that can only prosecute genocide and other serious crimes and can only act against states under its jurisdiction.