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Two decades ago, Violeta Chamorro won over Daniel Ortega in the Nicaraguan elections. This month, Ortega arrested Chamorro’s daughter as part of an unprecedented crackdown on opposition figures, aimed at paving the way for his fourth term as president.
The veteran force has taken targets individually before the November vote. Since June 2, Ortega has arrested four presidential candidates, a CEO and two opposition leaders. An arrest warrant has also been issued for the president of the American Chamber of Commerce.
“It is clear that the pitch is being cleared to run without any significant opposition,” said José Miguel Vivanco, executive director of the American Division of the human rights group Human Rights Watch.
The first from Ortega’s point of view was Cristiana Chamorro, whose mother defeated the Sandinista uprising in the 1990 elections. Accused of money laundering, he has been arrested at home.
Former US Ambassador Arturo Cruz was next. Arrested on arrival at Managua airport in accordance with the law of treason approved at the end of last year – a a battery of repressive measures It is designed to tighten opposition after protests in 2018, which left about 450 people dead.
Then came Félix Madariaga and Juan Sebastián Chamorro, Cristina’s cousin, both accused of influencing foreign intervention in internal affairs.
There were four candidates in the Nov. 7 election. Ortega, 75, first took power after the Sandinista Revolution overthrew dictator Anastasio Somoza, who was backed by the United States in 1979, is demanding another five-year term. He ruled from 1989-1990 and has been in power without interruption since 2007.
Violeta Granera, an opposition activist, José Pallais, a former foreign minister, José Adán Aguerri, a former head of Cosep’s largest business lobby, have also been arrested. Mario Arana, the head of Amcham, the former governor of the central bank, is in hiding.
“Daniel Ortega he is someone who would do anything to stay in power – he would not use any restrictions on repression, ”said Nicaraguan human rights defender Bianca Jagger.
A consultant who asked not to be nominated to protect people working in Nicaragua said Ortega’s tactic was to “partially cancel the election.” Or as Jagger said, “What you’re seeing is Daniel Ortega, who’s not going to go to the polls that he’s never going to lose.”
In particular, Ortega doubled his control of the electoral apparatus in May, and his FSLN party was tasked with voting. He rejected the observer and allowed a ban on opposition parties.
Ortega’s increasingly rude tactics are unlikely to spill over into protests because fear is widespread. The masked paramilitaries fired on protesters in 2018 and Ortega has tightened the country more and more. As one local put it, “He controls everything.”
Activists and regional political leaders expected the US to move forward. Nicaragua’s former US national security adviser John Bolton called the “troika of tyranny” he joined in along with Cuba and Venezuela, however, “Ortega has been neglected in the years left by the U.S. and international community… So he has dared… “said María Bozmoskik in the Atlantic Council, in a think tank.
Despite US sanctions on allies and top officials – including his wife Rosario Murillo, vice president and spokesman for the regime, and some of his children – Ortega has caught his nose in Washington.
Cristiana Chamorro was arrested while U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blink was present at a regional meeting in neighboring Costa Rica. Others were arrested while Vice President Kamala Harris was in Mexico.
Still, “the only card left is the U.S.,” said former Costa Rican President Laura Chinchilla. “The credibility of the roads is in line.”
Julie Chung, Assistant Acting Secretary of the Western Hemisphere, he tweeted “Nicaragua is becoming an international pariah and moving further away from democracy.”
The U.S. says it will reconsider access to U.S. trade in Nicaragua if it does not conduct free and fair elections. But cancel Cafta-DR free trade agreement can throw back.
“Keeping Nicaragua Caftan is like injecting blood and oxygen with a dying patient,” Bozmoski said. If Nicaragua were to be shut down, “the number of people who would suffer is dependent on the job [export-oriented] free zone. These works would try to exist ”.
Chinchilla urged lenders to “turn off the taps” while Vivanco called for a “snowfall of specific sanctions against key officials” to turn the heat on the Ortega regime.
But a veteran U.S. diplomat said that even if that works, it “risks further impoverishing a region we are trying to do something about” and could lead to more migration from Central America.
More than 100,000 Nicaraguans fled Costa Rica in the 2018 protests, but the numbers reaching the U.S. border, while still low, rose slightly recently, the diplomat added.
Ortega is backed by controls over the country, including the army and police, but the situation does not remain the same.
“I’m not really sure what’s going to happen,” the consultant said. “But I’m sure it’s not over.”
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