Diplomatic expulsions reduce Russia’s reach in Eastern Europe

Built in the 1950s as a monument to the fraternal relations between Moscow and Prague, the spacious and imposing Czech embassy in the heart of the Russian capital was designed for many workers. Today, its five accredited diplomats can each have three floors of the complex on their own.

It has been the number of staff at the embassy the greatest victims diplomatic war tit-for-tat expulsions In the last fortnight between Russia and Western countries, 152 officials from foreign embassies or foreign embassies in Moscow have lost accreditation.

Most expulsions involve countries in Eastern Europe with historical ties to Russia, from the Baltic to Bulgaria, stressing the region’s dire state of ties with Moscow and the difficulty of rebuilding relations with remaining diplomats.

“This is not a storm in a cup of tea. What we are seeing here is the end of the era when Russia is on its former Soviet satellites, ”said Maxim Samorukov, a member of the Carnegie Moscow Center.

“For decades, and even after the Cold War, Moscow had a good presence and influence in those countries, thanks to the legacy of the Warsaw Pact,” he added. “This is seriously damaging Russian relations. The loss is significant. “

Since April 15, most of the expulsions have been affected Complaint of Prague two people were killed by Russian spies behind explosives in a Czech weapons depot in 2014.

This prompted Prague to expel 18 Russian diplomats, and when Moscow expelled 20 people from the Czech embassy in response, Prague He expelled 63 more Russians, demanding that the number of people working on missions in both countries be the same.

In solidarity with the Czech Republic, other countries such as Lithuania and Slovakia also expelled Russian diplomats. mirror answers While in Moscow, Bulgaria also expelled a Russian diplomat after examining Moscow’s links to explosions in its weapons depots. Meanwhile, the US and Russia expelled 10 diplomats from each other as part of new criminal packages against each other.

The impact will be felt in Central and Eastern Europe. Former members of the USSR, such as Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Ukraine, and former allies of the Warsaw Pact such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria, were considered important partners in Europe from 1991 onwards.

Since many of these states joined the EU and NATO, strong energy ties, such as gas pipelines and long-term oil and gas supply contracts, cross-border industrial investment and large foreign populations, have had an excessive presence in Russia.

But Moscow’s influence has steadily eroded since relations with Brussels and Washington began to deteriorate, following Russia’s 2008 war with Georgia and 2014’s annexation of Crimea. And this month’s tit-for-tat expulsion suggests the parties will have no hope of backing down.

Czech diplomacy and, in fact, all European and transatlantic environments were nervous about the amount of Russian diplomacy in Prague and this was an opportunity to get rid of.

Andrius Tursa, a risk advisory analyst at Central and Eastern Teneo Europe, said the mess would “tarnish Russia’s reputation” in the region. “It simply came to our notice then [central and eastern Europe] to further reduce cooperation with Russia in strategic sectors and security-sensitive areas. “

“We want to help the Czechs. We think if they take such a hard step, they know what they are doing. So he went to hell with the Russians, “said an official from a country that has expelled Russian diplomacy.” And now we have this big building in Moscow, and no workers! “

“Here in Central Europe, the issue of geopolitics and what we are like is a very big issue,” he added. “This is a call to the west, to America. Russia is a tool. The expulsion of Russian diplomats is a way to show: ‘Look, we are with you’. “

This week, Russian state television said it was a leaked list of nine countries that Moscow would call “enemies.” Apart from the US and the UK, all seven others were former members of the Warsaw Pact. Five were former members of the USSR.

“The actions of Prague and Sofia make us irritated, remorseful, incomprehensible and eager to see some changes in this schizophrenic position,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday.

“We will not accept what the Czechs have done, the way the Bulgarians have come together and how the Baltic republics and others are getting into this famous‘ solidarity ’,” he added.

The legacies of the Warsaw Pact, the Russian embassies in cities like Warsaw and Prague, are palaces that crush many local government buildings.

Until the final round, the Russian embassy in Prague was the largest foreign mission in the city in terms of staff, and the Czech intelligence agency has long complained that it has an extensive spy network.

“Czech diplomacy and, in fact, all European and transatlantic environments were nervous about the number of Russian diplomats in Prague and this was an opportunity to get rid of,” said Michal Koran, president of the Global Arena Research Institute in Prague.

“Russia has been unmasking in recent weeks,” he added. “The decisions taken will clear the table when it comes to diplomatic relations, and I don’t see a viable agenda moving forward.”