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Ethiopia’s elections are barely two weeks away but insecurity and various logistical problems and questions about representation are threatening national surveys that have already been delayed twice.
In a televised statement in April, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed promised Ethiopians that with their vote they would be able to shape the country’s fate. However, as bloodshed instability in the northern Tigray region and elsewhere continues to hurt civilians, and candidates intend to give Abiyri the toughest electoral challenge. keep behind, Excitement among some Ethiopians continues to wane.
“I don’t have much hope in the process, I just want peace,” said Haimanot Tsegaye, a graduate student in the Addis Ababa capital.
“Anything today can lead to violence.”
Sixth election
The June 21 election for 547 seats in the Ethiopian House of Representatives will be the sixth since the communist government of Mengistu Haile Mariam was ousted in 1991. But they will also be the first to appear in four parties, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Front for Revolutionary Peoples (EPRDF). the alliance was declared the winner in the previous five competitions, including the last one in 2015, when it won all the seats in a process caused by allegations to intimidate voters.
Under a nearly 30-year tenure, the EPRDF-led government used massive arrests and state violence to quell criticism. In 2005, police crackdown on protesters who took to the streets to denounce election irregularities left nearly 200 protesters.
The growing complaints about growing authoritarianism prompted popular uprisings and eventually paved the way for Abiy to rise to power three years ago. At just 41 years old and the youngest African leader, Abiy promised to review the government and carry out democratic reforms, with the ultimate goal being free and fair elections (the first historic) by 2020.
When he took office in 2018, Abiy fired several EPRDF officials as he saw the end of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) coalition leadership. The following year, the EPRDF coalition was disbanded in its entirety, and invited party members to join what had become the United Party of Prosperity (PP). The Tigrayan elites, however, were shocked by the idea of joining the PP and returned to Tigray, where the TPLF ruled the government until the start of the war in November 2020.
PP party leaders have argued that the disbandment of the EPRDF will reduce social division and strengthen democracy in Africa’s second most populous country, a mosaic of more than 80 ethnic groups.
“Since 2018, the government has taken a number of measures to spread democratization by expanding the political space and creating the right environment for democratic practice,” said Samia Zekaria, the Ethiopian ambassador to Qatar. “He has repeatedly reiterated his firm commitment to ensuring free elections, firmly believing that it is the only legitimate path to a peaceful transition of power.”
Ethiopia is under the control of Abiyren
Within the massive changes, the political parties that were outlawed during the EPRDF were outlawed. Famous opposition figures were released from prison or returned from exile and invited to participate in the country’s new democratic process without fear of persecution.
At the same time, the appointment of Birtukan Mideksa as chairman of the National Electoral Board (NEB) increased optimism. The election of Birtuka – a former opposition political leader who spent nearly 40 months in two prisons after two controversial elections in 2005 – was seen by observers as a sign that the push for reform was a real push.
In March 2020, citing the risks posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the UN announced that it would postpone elections for that year by one year.
The decision angered many of the country’s political opposition, accusing the ruling party of using the pandemic power as an excuse to illegally extend power, a complaint denied by the government.
In June 2020, the Addis Ababa-based Balderas Genuine Democracy opposition party announced that it would call protests in the run-up to October 2020 if Abiy’s initial term had expired.
A few weeks after making the announcement, the party’s leader, Eskinder Nega, who was among the political prisoners ordered to be released in 2018, was arrested again and charged with inciting violence on June 29. murder Well-known musician and activist Hachalu Hundessa.
Other important election candidates and many Abiy critics, including Jawar Mohammed and Bekele Gerba, also left the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) party pair in the clearing when it was finally crowded with government critics.
Polling stations second delay training election staff last month and printing and distributing ballot papers for logistical problems they found behind bars such as Eskinder, Jawar and Bekele, all accused of terrorism-related crimes.
“No, these elections will not be free and fair if the parties keep themselves in jail,” said OFC President Merera Gudina. “These elections have no legitimacy. Party members are now being asked to show voter registration documents to get oil, sugar and other equipment. They are forcing people to register because of a lack of interest and to encourage a small number of voters. “
Merera’s party has said it will boycott the election, citing the inability to compete while the main leader and party members are under arrest. The OFC has a strong reputation among the country’s ethnic Oromo population, which makes up a third of the country’s 110 million people and eventually led the protests that Abiy was appointed prime minister.
The only other party that can compete with the OFC among the Oromo is the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), a former fighting group that was given an armed struggle to enter party politics at the invitation of Abiy in 2018. OLF members have also been arrested.
“Most young Oromo have lost hope in the process. Many would not be able to say when the election date is, “said Yeroon Tolasaak, a professor at the University of Addis Ababa.” The Oromo are not represented in the election. “
Meanwhile, the vote will not take place in Tigray, where a seven-month conflict between federal forces and former regional authorities has led to a downsizing of its institutions and infrastructure, as well as a partial takeover by troops in the Eritrean neighborhood. The conflict over Addis Ababa.
Tigray conducted his rude interrogations last year, with the federal government disobeying orders to delay them. The TPLF group, which was named the winner of these polls, has since been declared a “terrorist” group by the federal government.
Who is running?
The lack of strong opposition from the two regions, which are home to the country’s strongholds of major political opposition, has left a marked lack of diversity between the rest of the election hopes and the rivals of the Prosperity Party.
One of the political forces competing in future elections is the Ethiopian People’s Party for Social Justice (Ezema, better known by the acronym Amharic), led by Berhanu Nega, who ran for mayor of Addis Ababa in the controversial 2005 election. The Enat party, formed about a year ago, will present more than 500 candidates.
According to the number of candidates among the top 10 opposition parties, eight have their support bases in Addis Ababa. Most have little reach outside the Ethiopian capital.
“These elections will not be competitive,” said Goitom Gebreleul, a political analyst and Horn researcher on African affairs. “But perhaps the most damaging thing is to be represented by only one important social electorate. This serves to value ideals like democracy and human rights and will have a detrimental impact on society.”
Over the past month, several televised election debates have been held touching on a wide range of issues. Almost all the opposition parties that took part in the talks, with the exception of the Amhara National Movement (NAMA) party, are from Addis Ababa.
The lack of diversity was demonstrated in April by two discussion sessions in the Oromo language of the Ethiopian Afaan. Organized for the Oromia audience, no political party established in the Oromia region appeared in the discussions.
Meanwhile, the war in Tigray has been left out of the debate in the election debates, despite being among the country’s most serious problems, with reports of growing cruelty and growing hunger, as well as allegations of armed rape and ethnic cleansing. humanitarian disaster. 90 percent of Tigray’s population, or 5.2 million people, need emergency food aid.
Last month, the U.S. imposed thousands, if not more, on Ethiopian officials and displaced nearly two million for failing to take serious steps to end the war. Also in May, the European Union canceled plans to send election observers to Ethiopia due to apparent communication problems. In response to a call by five U.S. senators, they said they were “not on track to comply with international standards on freedom, fairness and transparency.”
‘Important political and legal reforms’
The Ethiopian government, however, stressed that it has ensured inclusiveness and that this year’s elections will be a significant departure from past practices.
“Unlike the history where the authorities came to power and mixed gun barrels with an undemocratic political culture, the upcoming June elections are administered after major political and legal reforms,” Ambassador Samia said.
Meanwhile, an Ethiopian court recently ordered the UN to allow imprisoned candidates from the Balderas party of the True Democracy Democracy Party, including the right-wing leader, to take part in the elections.
The body, citing logistics and time constraints, initially stated that it would not be able to comply with the court order, but has since stated that an exception would be made for the Balderas party, which would be allowed to run in the elections. his leaders in prison.
With many of Ethiopia’s political opposition out of the race, some observers fear that the polls could increase resentment against the government.
“Defective elections preserve popular resentment. We know in Ethiopia that this is one of the complaints now being used to denounce the TPLF as a manipulation of the last regime elections, ”said Nic Cheeseman, author and professor of democracy at the University of Birmingham.
“If Abiy moves forward with flawed elections, it will create similar anger and frustration by repeating the cycle.”
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