Food commodity prices will ease this decade and emissions will rise, Reuters reports

PARIS (Reuters) – Large food prices are expected to ease in the next decade, following growth over the past year, with higher farm productivity and slowing demand from China, the UN food agency and the OECD.

Agricultural emissions are expected to rise, mainly from livestock production, according to a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Agricultural commodity prices have risen since last year as a result of rising Chinese imports and sharpening crop inventories has led the FAO to forecast record costs for food importers in 2021.

Prices for most major agricultural products are expected to fall slightly in real terms over the next decade, reviving long-term production trends and increasing demand from a growing world population, the FAO and OECD said in a report on the Agriculture Outlook 2021-2030 on Monday.

Chinese demand would continue to be a driver of agricultural markets around the world, especially for meat and fish consumption, but the report says it is growing at a slower pace than in the last decade.

Emissions from agricultural greenhouse gases (GHG) are projected to increase by 4% over the next 10 years, with livestock raising more than 80% of the increase.

“This will require additional policy efforts to help the agricultural sector effectively reduce the global GHG emission reduction set out in the Paris Agreement,” the FAO and OECD said, adding that productivity gains would reduce emissions per unit of production.