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Latin America’s political left is reviving, analysts say, as hunger and poverty in a region are on the rise. hit particularly hard as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
Honduras It is the last country to vote for a long-running right-wing government. Xiomara Castro, the country’s first female president, won the November election with a pledge to “get out of the abyss” of a “narcotics and corruption” in Honduras.
Castro’s husband, former Honduran President Manuel Zelaya, has been fired US-backed coup in 2009 A decade ago at the end of the last wave of socialist governments in Latin America – a “doubling period”pink tide”Analysts.
Known for his cowboy hats and thick mustaches, Zelaya was part of a trend that included Venezuelan macho leaders Hugo Chavez, Bolivian Evo Morales and Ecuadorian Rafael Correa. harnessing natural resources wealth in the name of reducing inequality and promoting social programs.
Castro’s victoryit somehow heralds a broader change across the region as a new generation of the left gains ground, said John Cavanagh, a senior analyst at the Washington-based Institute for Policy Studies.
“What we’ve seen over the last five years is the progressive tide, but I wouldn’t call it‘ pink ’. “Pink” refers to a traditional type of socialism; What’s happening here is different, ”he told Al Jazeera. “There are more nuances, less machismo and more tendency for young voters who care about the environment … There are more green and feminist currents in these movements.”
There are many exceptions, of course, to the left of the region.
Ecuador, for example, was elected Conservative banker Guillermo Lasso as president in April. But analysts across the political spectrum acknowledged that change was happening.
‘Millennial Left’
According to a November research note Published by the Dutch multinational bank ING, “Latin American policy has already undergone a decisive change in the left in 2021 and is not yet over.”
The analysis indicated that 2022 is a “big political year” for the region, and highlighted the upcoming elections in Colombia and Brazil. “Right-wing holders seem vulnerable,” the bank said.
Along with Honduras, he saw 2021 Pedro Castillo He won the Peruvian presidency by a narrow margin. Unfamiliar to many early voters, the former rural teacher pledged to better share the country’s vast mineral wealth and take more rights to mining companies, which he accused of “looting” the Andean nation. His reputation, however, has taken a hit among the latest corruption allegations.
In Chile, traditionally one of the most stable and affluent countries in the region, 35-year-old Gabriel Boric, a former student protest leader, was leading the polls. far-right rival Ahead of a presidential vote scheduled for Dec. 19.
Boric Valeria Vasquez, an analyst living in Mexico City for the control firm Control Risks, a leading campaigner for reducing inequality and tackling climate change, is a prime example of what he calls the “millennial left.”
“This new millennial left is based on old forces,” he told Al Jazeera, referring to left-wing movements such as unions and socialist political parties. “They have begun to build on that historic foundation, using other mechanisms, such as Twitter governance, to help them gain power.”
Building on social media on this older foundation will be key to getting the biggest reward: Brazilian elections next year.
He is likely to stand up to the former far-right army general Jair Bolsonaro, against the former president of the left Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the competition will offer voters the most popular nation in Latin America.
“A common dynamic between Chile and Brazil: we see a massive movement of people to restore their democracies and constitutions,” said David Adler, coordinator of Mexico City’s Progressive International promotion network Al Jazeera. “In both cases, we see the reactionary threatens to repress these movements.”
Parts of the old guard remain on stage
However, despite a new group of left-wing politicians gaining ground, some remnants of the old Cold War-style authoritarian guard have not left the stage altogether.
In Nicaragua, 76-year-old Daniel Ortega won his fourth consecutive term in a November election that was criticized by many observers. neither free nor fair.
Ortega fought against the Somoza dictatorship with the Sandinista rebels in the 1970s, but has now joined and supported the conservative elements of the powerful Catholic Church. a complete ban on abortion and imprisoned political opponents, including some of his former Sandinista members. Ortega paints his opponent as a gringo who would sell the country to the US.
In Venezuela, President Nicolas Maduro has led to the worst refugee crisis in the western hemisphere, forcing 5.9 million people to flee an oil-rich country in search of food and security. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
Cavanagh said no one on the left in the region is campaigning to govern in the model of Maduro or Ortega.
Part of what ended the last pink tide was a sharp drop in commodity prices beginning in mid-2014, analysts said. Left-wing governments in places like Brazil and Ecuador linked their policies and economic models to the extraction of natural resources. When prices fell, the economy shrank, and angry voters blamed the incumbents.
“In the pink tide of the past, natural resources were more important,” Vasquez said, and while they still attach importance to the new harvest of the left, they pay less attention.
Standard voter cycles, where voters are tired of a party or ideology and vote for their opponents, were probably also involved in the region’s right-wing drift a few years ago, analysts said. But as the political pendulum swings to the left, observers farther away from the region are seeing new dynamics unfold.
“Latin America has a huge impact on the imagination of progressives around the world, turning to Fidel Castro and Che Gueva,” Cavanagh said. “There is a rising tide in Latin America that has filled the pink tide. It’s going to be a little different in each country, but it’s going to be interesting to see what comes up. “
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