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What is the best way to achieve a net zero emission by 2050? The International Energy Agency, the oil watchdog based in Paris, has charted a path that is “narrow but still achievable” if the world is to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions to almost zero and limit global warming to 1.5 C.
Fulfilling this goal taken by major economies such as the EU, the US and the UK would require a complete transformation of the global economy over the next three decades.
Under the IEA scenario, completing the sale of conventional gasoline cars by 2035, achieving 100 percent clean energy by 2040, and using heat pumps by 2045 would meet at least half of all heating needs.
While some industry leaders and major energy-consuming countries believe the path is unrelated to the reality of current consumption patterns, it shows a complete overhaul of the energy system that would be needed.
Energy consumption by 2050 would be lower than it is today due to efficiency improvements, even though the global economy will be 40 percent higher than it is now.
Most of the energy would come from renewable sources, and the IEA predicted that solar energy would increase 20 times and wind energy by 11 times by 2050. The use of electricity would also grow. Today, 20% of total energy consumption is electricity. By 2050, it would rise to 50 percent in that scenario.
Appropriate expenditure on electrical infrastructure should be encouraged. Capital investment in the energy sector is expected to increase by $ 5 trillion a year, of which investment in transmission and distribution networks is expected to increase annually to $ 830 billion from 2060 billion in 2030 today.
Fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas would play a very limited role in this scenario by 2050. Coal would fall to 4% of the world’s energy supply, mostly from plants supplied before the release of carbon dioxide.
According to the IEA, oil and gas would be slightly higher by 2050, but not by much. Demand for oil would fall by 75% to 24 million barrels a day and demand for gas would fall by 55 percent on the agency’s stage.
The IEA report says it would not be necessary to conduct a new exploration for the supply of oil, gas or coal, as producers would only focus on existing assets. In particular, this means that the Middle East will grow a larger share of the world’s oil supply over time. As a result, Opec’s control of the oil market would grow to 52 percent, the highest level ever.
The IEA was set up in 1974 by oil-consuming OECD countries, which led to rising prices following access to supply after the Arab oil embargo. Then his mandate was developed to take into account all types of energy security.
The IEA report makes it clear that this will not happen without major policy changes and increased energy investment. People will have to change their lifestyles, he says, about 4 percent of projected emissions reductions will come from behavioral changes, such as making fewer long-haul flights.
Politicians will also need to use all the tools at their disposal, including setting the price of carbon dioxide emissions. As the price of oil falls to a zero scenario, the price of carbon dioxide will rise, according to IEA forecasts, especially in developed countries.
Governments will also need to speed up plans to reduce emissions. The government’s climate plans, which the AIE also examined in this report, will only reduce emissions by 35% by 2050.
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