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Yes, the weather is in space. The surface of the sun explodes with gas and plasma, expelling charged particles (protons, electrons, and heavy ions) into the rest of the solar system for millions of miles per hour. These particles can hit Earth and the moon in minutes. The Earth’s magnetic field protects us from them, but the particles still do fry electronics and electrical grids on the surface and damage critical satellites that manage GPS and telecommunications services.
Space weather can be very dangerous for astronauts who fly to the moon or try to live and work in the lunar position on the surface. Life-sustaining systems and power could be extinguished, and solar activity can cause life-threatening radiation levels. “Between Apollo 16 and 17,” Owens says, “there was a lot of space weather it was likely to be fatal then if the astronauts had been on the moon. ”
Every 11 years, the sun’s magnetic field is overturned — the north and south poles are trading places — and solar activity goes up and down. You may think it is wiser to shoot at least the sun, but this is not necessarily the case, as low points of solar activity tend to have a higher exposure to galactic cosmic rays (space radiation outside the solar system).
Moreover, the space weather pattern that we have been able to predict over time is related to light and moderate events that do not pose a significant risk to crew missions. But extreme solar storms — the kind that can destroy a mission to the moon — occur at random. Many, Like the famous Carrington event of 1859, apparently occurred in small solar activity. And these extreme events are very rare because they are difficult to investigate.
To strengthen the analysis of the little data available, Owens and his team developed extreme space weather probability models based on 150-year records of solar activity. These models simulated different frequencies of extreme storms; one occurred randomly, another increased the probability of maximum sunshine, and so on.
After thousands of simulations, the researchers had enough data to determine the types of scenarios that match what we know today about how the sun works. They observed that extreme space weather follows the same general pattern as moderate weather: maximum activity in the solar system is greater than the minimum activity, and serious events are more likely than weaker in the strongest solar cycles.
And there was also a very interesting nugget for extreme events: in odd-numbered solar cycles they tend to be slightly later than even-numbered ones.
We have just started the 25th solar cycle December 2019. The maximum sun is expected to occur between 2023-2029, so the worst time for space weather should be marked. “But because it’s a weird cycle, the probability of extreme space weather is the highest until the end of that window, say 2026-2029,” Owens says.
The authors say that the greater risk does not make it safe to carry out missions to the moon during this period. “We don’t anticipate the individual timing of events,” Owens says. “So the best advice we can give is the probability of encountering an extreme event.” If the launch is to be delayed until 2026, it would be more advisable to delay it even further until 2030. Otherwise, mission organizers should make sure that a spacecraft has the proper hardware to protect the astronauts from extreme events.
After all, it’s not like we’re just bringing astronauts out of the moon in time, knowing that a bad solar storm is on the way. Today, the best space weather warning systems give us the face of a from a few hours to a few days“And those predictions are even worse for predicting catastrophic storms.”
Dan Baker, a space physics researcher at the University of Colorado Boulder, said the study was a good one, stressing that such research “should be taken seriously and folded [mission] planning. ”But he is not entirely sure that the statistical work of this study should be taken as a recommendation to clear the moon’s mission between 2026 and 2029.“ Solar storm events and solar energy particles are a very real risk for astronauts outside the Earth’s magnetosphere shield. “However, I believe that prudent measures can be taken to protect us from the effects of such harsh space weather. With an active and effective operational space with a weather alert and warning system, I believe threats can be managed.” Risks can be incurred if there is an early warning weather system that monitors the weather 24/7, and if there is a spacecraft or lunar advance module that can protect astronauts from such events in particular.
While this may be a rare extreme event, the difference between life and death in a mission to the moon could be said. It remains to be seen whether NASA and others are willing to take that risk.
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