Is Duterte squandering the victory in The Hague to appease Beijing? | South China Sea News

In the days leading up to the fifth anniversary of the 2016 Hague ruling, China rejected the historic South China Sea claim on Monday, Theodore Locsin Jr. of the Philippines Formerly abrasive Foreign Secretary the celebration seemed to him to be a “landmark in the corpus of international law”.

“The Philippines is proud to have contributed to the order based on international rules,” Manila said of his role in challenging the Beijing Permanent Court of Arbitration.

In an excavation in China, Locsin said the decision “included a nine-line line; and to hold any nine-tenths of the law expected. “

Locsin then cited a videotaped message from Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte to the UN General Assembly, in which the Philippine head said the case is now “beyond compromise and beyond the government’s power to dilute, shrink or suspend.”

But since taking office in 2016, Duterte has not usually been so assertive – China has not questioned whether it has achieved victory to increase its maritime dominance in the region, and foreign policy experts say its “defeatist rhetoric” has damaged the country’s integrity and legal status.

“Manila certainly missed the opportunity to achieve a coherent unified narrative about its claims … Beijing saw it as an opportunity to flex its muscles and build the largest coastguard and naval militia to achieve its strategic advantage,” said Chester Cabalza, Manila’s president and founder. International Development and Security Cooperation think-tank based on.

“Instead, the Filipinos heard defeatist rhetoric from the commander-in-chief that his mother was carrying out constant attacks by the Chinese in the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ),” he told Al Jazeera.

Collin Koh, a researcher at the Institute for Strategic Defense and Investigation in Singapore, said the Duterte administration had “wasted the opportunity” by stressing the importance of the decision “whether it should do it alone or in concert with similar external parties”. Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the United States.

‘Victory Day’

In July 2016, just two weeks before the Duterte presidency, the Hague tribunal concluded on the basis of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) China’s assertion of historical rights in its “nine-line line” and maritime rights in most of the South China Sea had no “legal basis.”.

The ruling also upheld Philippine jurisdiction over its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) that extends 200 nautical miles (370km) from its coast. Thus, the construction of Chinese fishing activities and artificial islands was believed to violate the sovereign rights of the Philippines in that area. The Philippines calls this specific area the West Sea of ​​the Philippines.

In addition, the court ruled that not all of the South China Sea features discussed, including those controlled by Beijing, were considered “viable” and capable of sustaining economic activity in the original manner, and therefore had no rights to the ECB.

To commemorate this year’s resolution, Philippine Senator Risa Hontiveros has proposed that the country designate July 12 as the National Day of Victory in the Western Philippines.

In a document sent to Al Jazeera, Duterte’s predecessor, Benigno Aquino III, said – who died last month – The decision taken by China to achieve a “legal victory” should also be commended.

“Even when the Philippines went against Goliath, who is China, he continued with the principle that the case was the right thing to do.”

Protests are also expected on Monday outside China’s diplomatic mission in Manila.

China has repeatedly said that it does not recognize the 2016 ruling, and it does The artificial island continued to expand on Mischief Reef, as well as on Scarborough Shoal, Which Manila lost to Beijing in 2012.

Duterte’s bet

In his 2016 presidential campaign, Duterte captivated voters with his tough stance on China. In a campaign, he promised to ride a jet ski in the South China Sea and challenge the incursion into the waters of the Chinese Philippines. He always said he wanted to kill a hero.

But as soon as he became president, Duterte began to back down on his promises that the Philippines could not take over China because a confrontation would only lead to bloodshed.

In an interview with Al Jazeera in October 2016, Dutert also said the scam on his bikes was “hyperbole” and he didn’t even know how to swim. He then said that it was all a “joke” to show his “courage” and that only “stupid” people would believe him.

In a surprise admission in June 2019, Duterte said he reached a verbal agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2016 when China allowed fishing within the Philippine EEZ, even though the state promised to protect its maritime wealth, including the EEZ. “Save use and enjoyment only to the people of the Philippines.”

In recent months, Chinese ships led by Chinese naval militia personnel have been spotted in the South China Sea within the Philippine EEZ [File: Philippine Coast Guard/Handout via Reuters]

“It was a mutual agreement,” Dutert explained. “Let’s give each other a way. You’re fishing there, I’m fishing here. “

In several public remarks, Dutert stressed that better relations with China have brought economic dividends to the Philippines through direct investment, financial assistance and loans.

Salvador Panelo, who was Duterte’s spokesman at the time, said he defended the deal even though it was “oral” and “still valid and binding.”

But Panelo’s successor, Harry Roque, said in April that the agreement was not “true” and “pure simplicity.”

“There is no such treaty or agreement between the Philippines and China,” Roque said, adding that the fisheries agreement can also be done “only by treaty” and “in writing.”

‘Swarming’

Amid the diplomatic rumor of the Duterte administration, the state of the South China Sea reached the beginning of the year, when several reports revealed hundreds of Chinese ships gathered inside the Philippine EEZ.

Since then, the “swarming incident” has been repeated several times, with Manila provoking several diplomatic protests, accusing Beijing of “significantly rejecting” its commitment to “promote peace and stability in the region.”

In May, the presence of hundreds of Chinese ships so overwhelmed Locsin, the top diplomat in the Philippines, that he threw an explosive statement on social media.

“China, friend, how can I kindly put it? Let me see … Oh … ATERA F ***“, Locsin wrote on Twitter.

According to reports, Manila has filed more than 120 diplomatic protests with China over the 2016 conflict-ridden waters.

In the last two and a half months, the Philippines has increased its patrols across the South China Sea beyond anything seen in recent years. AMTI continues its activities and meetings with Chinese ships in a new feature: https://t.co/MsEEx0IpLs pic.twitter.com/tN91IqP2C7

– AMTI (@AsiaMTI) July 4, 2021

Still, Duterte has continued to be eager to confront China.

In recent months, he has said he wants to maintain friendly ties with China, citing Manila’s “debt of gratitude” for Beijing’s help in delivering coronavirus vaccines. He has also banned his cabinet from talking about the upcoming China Sea after being criticized by key security and diplomatic officials for swarming China.

Although Duterte has made an effort to go to Beijing, observers say China has only been “insufferable,” and growing tensions have left Manila with no other option but to claim its rightful place in the South China Sea.

Cabalza, a security analyst based in Manila, said now is not the time for the Duterte administration to “turn foreign policy around” and called for a “more strategic” approach that will balance the country’s economic and security interests.

“The art of Chinese war and fraud should not be taken for granted.”

He called on the Philippines to “accelerate” its military modernization program to “increase the presence of air and sea domains” and stop Chinese incursions.

“If Manila is to consider a balanced and intimidating commitment to Beijing, it must strengthen its strong national security infrastructure to deal with China’s gray zone strategy and massive disinformation,” he said, adding that Manila should continue to hold diplomatic protests. incursion occurs.

South China Sea ‘deal’

A foreign affairs analyst at the S Rajaratnam International School of Studies in Koh Singapore also noted how the Philippines has been lagging behind for years in “building a stick” in terms of its military capability to make naval patrols “more intense”.

Manila could have ruled in part if Duterte had not weakened his decades-long alliance with the U.S., Koh said. Since taking office, Dutert has shown his contempt for the US, without even confirming that he could be a target for the CIA.

“Open expressions of a desire to prioritize ties with Beijing – even to the detriment of the 2016 award, would have a combined effect of daring Beijing to maintain a sustainable maritime presence and alliance relations with the US,” he told Al Jazeera.

With the progress made in strengthening China’s artificial islands in the South China Sea, it is “impossible to predict” that within the Philippine EEZ it will be “a voluntary waiver of these properties,” Koh said.

“There is no way to use the power to turn things around to expel the Chinese from these artificial outposts, which would mean war.”

Without resorting to armed conflict, it is still possible for the Philippines to assert its maritime sovereignty and rights by putting a “principle and coherent stance” on the issue, Koh added.

He said the Philippines will have to carry out maritime law enforcement actions and local EEZ patrols.

“Because of the Philippine Coast Guard and the Philippine EEZ, around Sabina Shoal and Marie Louise Bank, the dispersal of Chinese and foreign fishing vessels is a good example,” Koh said.

“These actions may not force China to reverse its actions in the South China Sea, but at least Beijing can avoid thinking of more drastic actions to further weaken the status quo.”

In May, Chinese ships also left Sabina Shoal after the Philippines challenged the radio.

Hontiveros, an opposition senator and critic of Duterte’s South China Sea policy, said the radio’s challenges show that “the Philippines can reclaim ownership of the West Sea in the Philippines without resorting to war.”

As China and the U.S. compete in an increasingly foreign policy, Manila’s lesson is to pursue an independent foreign policy, according to Cabalza, an expert on foreign affairs who also studied at Beijing National Defense University.

“Manila should choose its national interest. It takes courage to depend on its capacity and build with a vision of protecting the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. ”