Is there a new variant driving the catastrophe of the Indian coronavirus?

The astonishing rate at which the coronavirus has plagued the Indian health system has caused a global alarm in the face of the viral variant that has emerged in the subcontinent.

The B. 1,617 variants some have been blamed for the proliferation of infections in India more than 350,000 confirmed cases only on Monday, the world record for a region in a single day. Health experts believe the actual figure is likely to be much higher.

But scientists have been keen to jump in as a result of the dramatic rise in cases in recent weeks, which has confirmed 2,800 deaths in India on Monday alone. They said there was little hard evidence on the virulence and transmissibility of the Indian variant and pointed to other possible factors.

“Although there has been a tremendous rise in new cases with India’s second wave, there is not enough evidence to place the blame on the variants,” said Nancy Jaser, an infectious disease analyst at GlobalData, which tracks mutations.

When was the “Indian variant” developed and to what extent has it spread?

B. 1,617 variants were first recorded in a global viral genome database in early October, two weeks after the day B.1.1.7 variant was originally detected in the United Kingdom. B. 1,617 It has circulated in India and has spread internationally. About 20 countries have reported cases, mostly among Indian travelers.

The problem is that in terms of population size, India has done very little genome sequencing that is the only reliable way to track the evolution of variants. Thus, the involvement of the B. 1,617 variant in the Indian outbreak is unknown, although it accounts for about two-thirds of the genomes reported from the country to the global GISAID database.

Jeffrey Barrett, director of the Covid-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in Cambridge, noted that there are several variants in India, including one that originated in the UK.

B.1.1.7 concluded by scientists more pollutingThe Covid-19 wave was the main variant of the UK in late 2020 and later spread to the European peninsula.

“There is some evidence that there are overlapping epidemics in India, rather than a monolithic outbreak,” Barrett said. “It makes sense because it’s a huge, heterogeneous country.”

B. Is 1,617 particularly virulent or contagious?

B. 1,617 original variants contain 13 genetic mutations that cause changes in the virus. These include increased transmissibility and capacity in lump protein associated with other variants (such as those identified in South Africa and Brazil). escape immunity gives vaccines or previous infections. But there is not enough evidence from epidemiological studies or laboratory experiments to verify this evidence B. 1.617.

“You have to see these things without being scared,” Barrett said. “In fact [the variant that originated in India] it has not yet spread [widely] In the UK, though has been on the British shores from February onwards, it suggests that it is likely to be as contagious as B.1.1.7 “.

Adding to the uncertainty, B. 1,617 itself is “evolving and diverging over time,” according to Sharon Peacock, director of the Covid-19 Genomics Consortium in the United Kingdom. Scientists have already detected three subsequent lineages – called B. 1.617.1, B. 1.617.2 and B. 1.617.3 – with slightly different mutations. The practical consequences of these tensions are unknown.

In the media and online B. Variations referred to as “double mutations” in variant 1,617 are “inaccurate, have no specific meaning and should be avoided,” Peacock added.

Will vaccines be more effective against B. 1,617 than against other variants?

Again, it is not clear. It seems that the vaccines developed against the original coronavirus, which originated in Wuhan in 2019, also work against variant B.1.1.7, which originated in the United Kingdom, although it seems that not so effective Against variants produced in South Africa and Brazil.

“Whether it will remain effective against new variants emerging in India is not yet clear, but it is… Likely to be at least effective,” said Peter English, a retired consultant for the control of communicable diseases in the UK.

With about 10% of India’s population vaccinated, “the variants are not yet under high pressure from vaccine immunity, so there is not much pressure to cause mutant vaccine escapes,” he added.

If the new variant is not the main driver of India’s Covid-19 crisis, what else could be responsible?

The evolving coronavirus crisis in India has also been affected by other factors such as low vaccination rate and limited hospital capacity, as well as decisions made by leaders Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and tolerance of large political and religious meetings.

“A lot of attention has been paid to variant B. 1,617,” said Michael Head, chief global health researcher at Southampton University in the UK. “But it is the disturbance of sensitive populations that ultimately drives the transmission of infectious respiratory diseases.”

He noted the crowded rallies in India in March and April, including political campaigns related to international cricket matches between India and England “with few stadiums and few wearing masks” and several religious festivals, such as Kumbh Mela, the event was attended by millions of people.

The head noted that Saudi Arabia’s Hajj pilgrimages and China’s regular New Year celebrations were reduced to a lesser extent.

“India may be a little behind in celebrations but millions of sites have gathered for Kumbh Mela, and thousands of new cases of coronavirus have already been confirmed,” he said.