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While Benjamin Netanyahu has managed to stay in power until then, allegations of corruption and the failure to form a stable and reliable coalition government have repeatedly appeared to indicate the end of his reign.
However, the recent conflict with the Palestinians may have opened a new path for Netanyahu and Israel with the intention of remaining the prime minister of the longest-running service, analysts say.
The Israeli leader and his Likud party did not form a governing coalition and President Reuven Rivlin fulfilled that task Opposition leader Yair Lapid to form its own government.
Even before the election, Netanyahu lost the support of the people of Israel for a variety of reasons, according to Micheline Ishay, director of the human rights program at the University of Denver.
“Netanyahu’s popularity has waned and people are tired of the final election. Likud dropped from 36 seats in March 2020 to March 30, 2021, “Ishay told Al Jazeera.” Netanyahu’s continued efforts to prevent prosecution, the division of right-wing parties and a lasting pandemic have helped create great freedom. “
He added, however, that the conflict with the Palestinians has diminished Netanyahu’s reluctance.
“Certainly, its popularity will rise among some citizens as a result of this escalation with Gaza. Under fire and in war situations, people often gather behind the existing government, fearing rockets and internal threats. In this sense, the current crisis strengthens Netanyahu’s political designs. “said Ishay.
“Planned Confiscation”
In any case, Ishay has said he does not believe Netanyahu has supported the conflict on political grounds, despite a clear link to violence against Palestinians.
“Netanyahu supported domestic provocations, as well as growing up kahanistak In Jerusalem, the confiscation of property in Alava Sheikh Jarrah, Damascus Gate fences during Ramadan, and police action in Al-Aqsa.
“However, it is not clear that he would have foreseen Hamas’s response and wanted even less. Whatever the intention, the war will benefit Hamas and Likud, at least in the short term,” Ishay added.
However, it is not only the people’s perception that the conflict could have changed in Netanyahu’s favor in recent days.
On the one hand, a broad coalition against Netanyahu, as Yesh Atid had hoped, became more secure than ever Naftali Bennett he stated that the Yamina party would abandon talks with Lapid and seek a broader unity government with Netanyahu and Likud. Bennett felt that in times of crisis it was in the interest of the country.
The sudden reconciliation between Netanyahu and Bennett may be a surprise but it may make political sense.
After all, Netanyahu and Bennett have an ideology, and both advocated the unilateral annexation of parts of the West Bank, Ishay said, and the consequences are beneficial for the prime minister.
“By prioritizing perceptions of national threats over his political differences with Netanyahu, Bennett could revive the Likud coalition and weaken many blocs against Netanyahu,” Ishay said.
However, Bennett also knew how the current crisis affected the negotiations as they progressed, to the point where ministerial posts were already assigned. “change blocks“.
To get the required majority, the coalition had to include the votes of Israeli Palestinian citizens in the Knesset. Given the unrest between Israeli Jews and Israeli Palestinian citizens, this scenario has become unthinkable, as both Arab parties have been put in a position that they cannot essentially join the right-wing Israeli government.
This is the main example Mansour Abbas, The head of the United Arab Emirates (UAL), agreed to support the Lapid and Bennett government. In view of the armed conflict in Gaza, however, it emerged from talks with the UAL coalition.
Bennett called for the deployment of the Israeli army in places where Israeli Palestinians live, making it impossible for him to support the Arab List policy, also known as Raam, Ishay said.
“Bennett apparently suggested that the Israeli Defense Forces’ actions against Gaza and the implementation of the police against Palestinian unrest could not be directed by a government that included the United Arab List. This suggests that Israeli Arabs can never be part of a government except in peace,” he said.
‘Strategic importance’
Bennett’s behavior could become a key issue for Netanyahu to move forward, Ian Lustick, president of the Department of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, told Al Jazeera.
“Although the Raud-backed Likud-Bennett government could be formed, I find it very difficult to see. However, the strategic importance of Arab political parties in coalition negotiations remains here,” he said.
“Even if Netanyahu wants direct elections for the prime minister, given how those elections are organized, that could also give Raam a unified list and the power to negotiate on the question of whether he would run for prime minister or join a change.
Benett, meanwhile, said his decision to enter into talks with Netanyahu could help Likud move forward, and it will undoubtedly be Bennett’s price, Lustick said.
“Likud opens up opportunities for him to expand, if he sticks with Lapid, absorbing elements of Bennett’s Yamina who were willing to give up. Even if Bennett gets a prominent position in a future Netanyahu government, the political reputation for independence and integrity will be a severe blow.”
Meanwhile, Lapid isn’t there enough to dominate in hopeless situations.
“Bennett is wrong,” said Lapid, who has promised to turn all the stones to form a government without Netanyahu, adding that it is not worth working with someone responsible for the current situation. But his decision is unlikely to change.
‘Fragile Union Destroyed’
For Netanyahu, the Gaza conflict has given him another chance, Lustick said
“Netanyahu was unlikely to lose Prime Minister in the face of a coalition. However, the crisis, partly caused by the calculated and provocative Israeli calculations in Jerusalem, destroyed the fragile unity of that coalition. “
Even though Netanyahu does not yet have a majority of his own with Bennett – and at least without an Arab party – Bennett’s defections are a de facto situation in which a government can no longer be formed against the prime minister. Lustick argued that he is doing even more in the fifth election this fall.
“Even if Bennett’s return to Netanyahu cannot create a new government led by Likud, it could lead to new elections and is likely.”
Smoke and flames rise over a building in Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City [Mohammed Salem/Reuters]
In fact, Ishay and Lustick agree on the stage of the fifth election in two and a half years.
“At the moment, the fifth election is inevitable. Likud may form a short-lived coalition, but their political power will eventually diminish after the violence, ”Ishay said.
“On the other hand, a bloc against Netanyahu does not remove the current leadership but shares enough common issues to sustain a new coalition. Pandemics, repeated elections and now war can drive peace negotiations can lead to fatigue. A government willing to take the Palestinian issue seriously will have more power “.
‘Dynamic state’
Lustick shared this assessment.
“If Lapid fails, then the Knesset itself will be given the opportunity to form a government. That will almost certainly fail. “
However, he also admitted that the situation has become even more unpredictable.
“The question is what kind of elections will be held then: the Knesset elections, the election of the prime minister or both? Lustik.
However, the effects of the conflict go even further, Lustick said. With or without a vote, Palestinians from the river to the sea are part of Israel’s political system.
“Whether their impact on that system is given through voting, coalition negotiation, political mobilization, protests or violence will have an increasing impact,” he said.
It’s a dynamic, with Netanyahu having to consider whether or not he wants to achieve his goals.
Meanwhile, whether a new coalition can be facilitated or during the fifth election, Netanyahu’s chances of becoming prime minister have increased over the past week, analysts said.
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