‘It will be very bad’: experts warn of increasing COVID in Indonesia Coronavirus pandemic News

Indonesian health officials blame the onset of the Delta variant first detected in India on the sharp rise in COVID-19, which has more than tripled the number of new daily cases in recent weeks, but some of the country’s leading infectious disease experts say the real reasons are closer to home.

“The spread of this variant of the virus is very rapid,” Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin admitted at a seminar held online on Sunday, adding that Indonesia had a base through its ports.

“Because many seaports in Indonesia carry goods and many also come from India, they come in from there,” he said.

But experts interviewed by Al Jazeera said so Delta variant it was not the first problem.

They say the rise is the result of trips made at the end of Ramadan. Many people ignored the ban on travel to visit their hometowns, the lack of cohesive health policy messages, the privatization of trial regimes, and the ineffective tracing. .

While travel from domestic airports and ferry terminals was restricted from 22 April to 24 May, the government estimated that between five and six million people were traveling to Indonesia’s two most populous island cities during the holidays.

“All COVID variants are worrisome, but the Delta variant has not been proven to be fatal,” said Gusti Ngurah Mahardika, a professor at Udayana University, Bali’s oldest virologist. “He only gets a silver medal; The Indonesian champion is still the Alpha variant. I think the Delta variant is being used as a cap because of the government’s ability to control the pandemic. “

Focus on the economy

Health authorities reported 12,624 cases on Thursday, the highest increase since February, bringing the number of cases in Indonesia to nearly two million.

Mahardika says it is almost impossible to determine the reason for the rise, as infection rates are “so low” that Indonesian health data “cannot be mentioned,” but noted several possible causes.

“People who traveled during Ramadan had a role to play, no doubt about it,” he said. “But we are a disorganized country, the most attention is on the economy and people are having COVID fatigue and exhaustion. In the capital city of Denpasar (Bali) where I live, cafes and restaurants are full every evening.”

Ahmad Utomo, a molecular biological consultant specializing in the diagnosis of lung infections in Jakarta, admitted that the Delta variant is used to obscure the mismanagement of the pandemic.

“I totally agree with that. Whatever the variant, it needs human activity to repeat itself, “he said.” Indonesia is doing a good job of monitoring the genome, so they know that the Delta variant is here.

“But the Delta variant,” Utomok explained, “is like a sports car. It can go very fast. But a sports car can also go as fast as the road you give and you have to direct human mobility to slow it down.”

Utomo said too many people are disobeying health protocols and travel bans and that the government is making it worse because it is not investing in testing and layout.

“When people want to travel by ferry or plane to Indonesia, they have to pay for a test, so a huge industry has been created to meet the demand,” he said. “But there’s no money in tracing, so it’s ignored.”

‘It will be very bad’

Dr. Dicky Budiman, an epidemiologist who has helped formulate the Indonesian Ministry of Health’s pandemic management strategy for 20 years, says that although the Delta variant is more contagious than the Alpha variant, the latter is what drives the current outbreak.

“Currently, the spread of the Delta variant is very small, and it is spread by members of the community who disobeyed the Alpha variant to travel,” he told Al Jazeera. “I agree that the Delta variant is being used as a cap. We have been in a pandemic for more than a year, but the government has proven that it is unable to control COVID-19.”

Although the alpha variant may still be predominant, Buduman cautioned that the Delta account is a matter of time before the interval is taken.

He feared that Indonesia might soon have an appearance comparable to that of India.

“The Delta variant will cause infections next month,” he said. “I anticipate that there will be a huge burden on the community in July and that mortality will increase in Java, as 40% of Indonesia’s population lives on the island and this density puts them in a very dangerous situation.

“If we ask how things will go wrong, it will be very bad with a much higher death rate because we can see that what happened in India is a very clear pattern: the Delta variant has a much greater impact on those countries not having enough social alienation, wearing masks, testing and tracings and vaccines “.

Only 1 percent of positive cases in Indonesia have been genome-monitored, with no conclusive data to show the number of infections attributed to certain variants.

Dr. Nadia Wiwe, spokeswoman for the COVID-19 Vaccine Ministry of Health, acknowledged that travel has been of paramount importance.

“There is a tendency to increase cases due to the mobility of the community from Ramadan,” Wiweko told Al Jazeera. “Before, we had 3,000 cases a day, but now we’re going through 9,000 cases.”

‘It’s not too late’

Developed countries have achieved pandemic eradication through mass vaccination programs, aided by effective testing and contact monitoring.

Indonesia launched the final phase of the Chinese Sinovac jab in January, but has yet to fully integrate 4.3% of the population.

Indonesia, the fourth most populous country in the world, began its vaccination campaign in January. Inan Rustandi, 72, and his wife Neneng, 62, underwent a medical examination before taking the first dose of the vaccine, a door-to-door vaccine in the West Javanese Cianjur region earlier this month. [Willy Kurniawan/Reuters]

The government has been concerned about the economy since the pandemic began late last year because it is concerned it cannot provide its social security, let alone food packages, to its 270 million population. About 10% of Indonesians live below the poverty line.

Wiweko said the government is considering a micro-blocking strategy to target areas of high infection.

“We have issued regulations to limit community activities to the microscale in force in all provinces and urban districts. It’s like this [large-scale social restrictions] but adapted to local conditions, ”he said.

According to Wiweek, the strategy included direct isolation and treatment, domestic work regulation and limited hours of shopping. He also added that the track is rising from five to five footprints in every five positive cases.

“We know people are concerned,” he said, “but it’s not too late to avoid high-profile cases.”

But Budiman has warned that micro-locks will not be effective.

“They are still focusing too much on the economic consequences, but sooner or later they will have to rethink their response, as the experience of many other countries only shows complete blockages, with increasing testing and tracing following isolation and quarantine with massive vaccines. , he said.

Utomo expressed similar sentiments, “The solution is simple: enforce, test, trace and vaccinate health protocols. They have to be consistent in their strategy. “

As cases escalate, Indonesia is still talking about returning foreign visitors to popular destinations like Bali from July, when 10 million foreigners were welcomed in 2019 – in the last year before the pandemic – to revive the island’s economy.

“The Lancet has published an article that the only way to deal with the outbreaks is to eliminate them, not alleviate them,” Utomo said.

“Our leaders need to step down, don’t worry about people voting in the election. Otherwise, we will never get out of this pandemic.”