“It’s not an easy walk”: Memories of Crimea call for the reconstruction of the Ukrainian military

When Yuliy Mamchur, a colonel in the Ukrainian air force, tried to defend a Russian attack on his base on the Crimean peninsula in 2014, his troops were barely equipped for their mission.

“We were surrounded for a month by well-armed elite troops. We only had a gun and three machine guns to defend the air base, ”Mamchur recalled.

The plight of the Ukrainian military was revealed seven years ago after Russia took over the peninsula and then sparked a separatist war in Donbas, eastern Ukraine.

The troops lacked flak jackets and wore old Soviet helmets that were unable to stop bullets. Many tanks and armored vehicles were unable to operate due to missing parts and a shortage of fuel.

Russia has recently deployed about 110,000 workers on the eastern border of Ukraine and the occupied Crimean peninsula, Kyiv now has a larger and more professional military, with experience in battle, to fight Russian forces, if not defeat them.

“We have been preparing for the enemy’s attack since 2014,” Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said as he inspected the well-funded National Guard this week.

“And the attacker wants to understand that the attack on Ukraine will not be an easy walk. It will be a great loss for anyone who decides to enter our territory without our permission.”

Russia’s military intentions – which commanded soldiers near on Wednesday to return the boundary to their bases – they are hardly understood. Analysts say Ukrainian and Western officials say Kyiv’s stronger armed forces would increase Russia’s military cost for an investment or invasion when weighing in on any escalation that President Vladimir Putin should consider.

Support for the Russian offensive would be a concern for the Kremlin, a European diplomat said, adding that while the Russians are in favor of annexing Crimea, they feel more attached to the Donbas.

In the years leading up to the 2014 Moscow attack, the Ukrainian armed forces starved pro-Kremlin President Viktor Yanukovych into resources. But defense spending doubled to 3.4% of gross domestic product in 2019, up 1.6 percent from 2013, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The number of troops has increased.

Oleksandr Danylyuk, a former adviser to the Ukrainian Defense Minister in 2014 and now at the Center for Defense Reform in Kyiv, estimates that Ukraine has about 250,000 active troops (estimated at 209,000 by the International Institute for Strategic Research) and 1 million reservists, 250,000 of whom have combat experience. , Compared to 60,000 soldiers ready for war in 2014.

The Ukrainian army has gone from being a core of trained soldiers made up of volunteer battalions to a more professional corps, hardened by years of fighting.

NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said Ukraine’s security and defense sector has “come a long way” in the past seven years, and highlighted progress in areas such as defense planning and military education.

Allies such as the US, Canada, the UK and Lithuania have provided training to Ukrainian forces, while NATO has strengthened its command and control capabilities and improved communications.

“In 2014 they captured Ukraine, the army was ill-prepared, poorly equipped and there was a high level of corruption,” said Yohann Michel IISS defense analyst. “One of the most important effects [of training] is in the moral. Everything you can do to make your troops more professional will make them more professional. ”

These efforts are in line with Kyiv’s intention to meet NATO standards, with the goal of eventually joining the alliance.

“The improvements are about the modernization and professionalization of the armed forces, but it is also their goal to get closer to NATO,” said Ukrainian researcher Sarah Lain at the Royal United Services Institute.

Kyiv has also made hardware. Soviet-era tanks and artillery have been refurbished. New precision weapons have been developed or obtained from the West, including more than 300 U.S. Javelin-like missiles. Rocket systems have been upgraded.

Two years ago, Ukraine acquired six Bayraktar TB2 drones from Turkey, just as Azerbaijan used last year to gain victory over Armenia in the Karabakh conflict in Armenia. Ukraine is in talks with Turkey to buy 48 more.

Using Dionysus ’ability for reconnaissance and limited strike is a way to overcome the shortcomings of Kyiv’s aging aircraft fleet, but Michel of the IISS warned that the Russians will be ready with blockchain technology and drone defenses.

“Like the javelin, these drones will not change the overall balance of the conflict and will probably not overtake Russia,” he said.

Kyiv also lacks full capabilities against drones and aircraft, and has so far failed to convince the U.S. to help fill that gap by offering Patriot missile systems.

Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister, said he had conveyed “some specific needs” to the Washington military, but the US response will depend on Russia’s actions.

However, the western allies including the US and the UK are fulfilling surveillance functions and, since the creation of Moscow troops in the last month, there has been an increase in the deployment of spy planes in areas occupied by Russian forces.

“It gives the Ukrainians peace of mind and intelligence, and sends a signal to Moscow that we know where you are and what you are doing,” a Western defense official said.

James Sherr, a senior official at the International Center for Defense and Security at the Estonian Institute for Foreign Policy, warned that achieving state-of-the-art equipment would not address the main weaknesses of Ukraine’s defense “because it confronts one of the masters of the modern world.” , combining weapons and maneuver warfare is very mobile “.

“Ukrainian forces are not trained for this and have not been given the resources to do so,” he said.

Danylyuk said Russia has the military power to “release a massive attack” and can take over the territory so that the water supply to the Crimean peninsula can be re-established – one of Moscow’s possible targets is believed. “But are they willing to pay the price for that?”

“This time will not be an easy walk for Russia. . . There will be ten thousand dead, ”said Mamchur, who is in the reserve force in Ukraine and is ready to serve again.