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The writer, Morgan Stanley’s leading global investment management strategist, is the author of ‘The Ten Rules of Successful Nations’.
The question that is often asked – which nation is winning the fight against the pandemic – now has only one coherent answer. It depends on the month. The virus has repeatedly won the winner, and vice versa.
Not long ago, the US and the UK were punished for their unresponsive responses “Iliberal Populists” and inspired by their clueless faith in the greatness of their nation. Now they praise him a lot rapid spread of vaccines, and dress up as the safest place to vacation this summer.
Meanwhile, many nations that were initially praised for having the virus, from Asia to Europe, have since experienced weak growth, slow spread of vaccines or both. What is striking about all these cases is the widespread use of national and cultural stereotypes to explain how quickly success and failure were used – forgotten as quickly as then. Nobody calls the US “third world ”country now.
The search for winning strategies began in South Korea and Taiwan, where the few cases requested were attributed to well-trained bureaucracies, and orderly societies were prepared to some extent to comply with the rules. ”it’s hard to imagine that in the west“That was especially the case when Korea saw an increase in cases.
After a 102-day race without a local case, it was Thailand referred to as a model last September the World Health Organization made a major investment in public health. Many analysts went further, citing neighbors in Thailand and its Mekong region because of the cultures that provide cleanliness and a social touch.
Explanations of life were also provided due to the low number of early deaths in India. Living in densely populated homes, consuming unhealthy food, and drinking dirty water allowed millions of Indians to build “inherent immunity” to pathogens, as well as coronaviruses. Or so the story was told. Last month, it was Thailand and India is loaded with horrible cases.
Stereotyped success stories have been short-lived in the West. Swedish a narrow view of inappropriate touch to the blockades he has had his admirers, who have speculated that country “Culture of compliance” would enforce safe behavior. Moreover, many Swedes were said to be individual types, a natural way of social alienation. Last autumn the cases escalated and the King of Sweden declare the strategy has failed.
Germany was slipping at the same time. After having a first wave, I was among many analysts think which highlighted existing German strengths, from effective government to cooperative federalism. Others praised Angela Merkel as a rational population willing to follow “the chief scientist”. Then the second wave of winter hit, much harder.
Perhaps no country has had a harder fall than Canada, which had fewer helmet cases last summer than the US. Canadians proudly acknowledged the level of health and community spirit, and the “healthy” political culture led by a prime minister, who did not resort to bizarre medical theories.
Now, it’s the distribution of vaccines spreads faster In the US than in Canada. The number of daily cases in Canada has shot up in the US. Canadians profess a “modest” admiration for the American knowledge of the physician. Some Europeans do the same. But history will judge how nations acted in the entire pandemic, not in May 2021.
The truth is, the virus hasn’t broken. “the idea of the exceptional American has already been knocked out”, As many expected a year ago. But yet one major country has not achieved immunity from herds. Reopening and locking have been trial and error experiments, advancing at different speeds around the world. No one can be sure how the end game will play out.
Vaccines can ultimately be the miraculous weapon that wins this fight. U.S. Centers for Disease Control tends to be cautious to send a message although vaccines are very effective, it is not yet fully understood whether they will work against all variants. He has not claimed victory. Others would be wise as well.
Lesson for Armchair Epidemiologists: Choosing winners in the middle of a fight is a mistake. Remember that last month’s claims of victory went wrong before rushing to declare new winners this month. Recognize that the virus has a long-term survival plan.
More importantly, look at how bad cultural stereotypes explained success and failure. Quick-sketch caricatures have never been a useful tool for predicting the rise and fall of nations. Coronavirus has resurfaced as a deep thought.
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