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Seoul, South Korea – South Korea can freely develop missiles from all charges and ranges following an agreement between US President Joe Biden and South Korean President Moon Jae-in last month.
But the move, announced after a summit of two White House leaders on May 21, introduced new security risks to South Korea’s missile development and some analysts were concerned about the impact it could have on the wider region.
The South Korean military already has state-of-the-art missile technology, although it is previously limited to 800 kilometers, Ions researcher Daniel Bong of the Yonsei Institute for Korean Research told Al Jazeera. The question is whether the South Korean government wants to join the exclusive club of states with long-range missiles.
“It’s one thing to have no connection to missile development, but it’s another to go with the risk of going in the wrong direction with China,” Bong said.
South Korea has gone from bad to worse with China before the missiles, then He approved the expansion of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), The U.S. missile defense system in 2017.
In response, Beijing imposed sanctions.
Government-linked South Korean analysts and Moon administration officials have suggested that China understands South Korea’s vision for releasing the missile guide, saying Seoul is “regaining missile sovereignty.”
But the U.S. missile plan could cause problems for South Korea.
In August 2019, the USA he retired From the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Pact with Russia. Later, former U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper suggested that the U.S. would consider deploying ballistic missiles, IRBM, to the Asia Pacific region.
“South Korea could be the place, this would be a disaster in managing our relationship with the surrounding countries and, of course, China,” Sung Ki-young, General Research Partner of the National Security Strategy Institute, told Al Jazeera.
The key will be how far South Korea chooses to go with the missiles.
“By developing longer-range missiles that can reach China’s major cities, South Korea will have less resistance to the deployment of U.S. missiles that could target China,” Yonsei Bung said, “I’m talking about nuclear missiles.” ”
Double standard
Some are concerned that the free pathways to missile development will bring China and North Korea closer together.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met the North Korean ambassador in Beijing after the Biden-Moon summit.
“They showed family ties … As the US-South Korea alliance strengthens, so will North-China relations,” Cheong Wook-s, director of the Seoul Peace Network, told Al Jazeera.
The missile policy agreement led to allegations of hypocrisy by the U.S., with continued support from the United Nations Security Council for sanctions on North Korea.
“The U.S. has significantly reduced, condemned, and imposed sanctions on North Korean missile development, so South Korea’s missile development shows some kind of double standard,” Cheong said.
Cheong believed it was an alleged double standard, along with large-scale U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises that could see the security environment deteriorate.
“If a joint South Korean-US exercise is conducted this summer, North Korea may be able to respond by re-testing medium- and long-range missiles,” Cheong said.
‘Stop playing with fire’
Relaxing missile instructions was one of the agreements reached by the Biden and Moon administrations in May.
South Korean army soldiers at a 2020 demonstration demonstration. Even though the missile border was in force, South Korea developed sophisticated weapons [File: Ahn Young-joon/AP Photo]
The U.S. also vaccinates 550,000 South Korean troops, apparently to protect 28,500 members of the U.S. forces who work with them, while President Biden supported the initiative to build peace with North Korea, even though the Moon was only nine months in office.
In return, Moon also approached the United States regarding China: the joint statement “stressed (d) the importance of safeguarding peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”
But some have suggested that what seemed like trade equality actually offered the U.S. one more geopolitical advantage.
“The Moon Jae-in government was sold by the Biden administration because it was skilled in negotiation, because the Moon Jae-in government was very disappointed,” Yonsei’s Bong said.
President Moon is the third progressive leader in South Korea to seek peace and reconciliation on the Korean peninsula, after Nobel Peace Prize winner Kim Dae-jung and President Roh Moo-hyun led by President Moon.
Lately, South Korea has tried to strike a balance between Beijing and Washington.
Economically, Beijing promises. In 2003, it surpassed the U.S. as South Korea’s largest trading partner and now accounts for more than a quarter of exports, more than $ 125 billion annually.
Meanwhile, it is the U.S., with its military bases and so-called “nuclear umbrella,” that ensures South Korea’s security, with China increasingly demanding, often attacking, the exclusive economic environments of South Korea, Taiwan, and the South. China Sea.
In a joint statement from Biden-Moon on the reference to the Taiwan Strait, Beijing responded quickly, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian later saying in a speech that “major countries … should stop playing with fire.”
‘One less excuse’
According to the missile’s guidelines, Beijing has so far been somewhat silent, and North Korea has offered only a fairly moderate response: a state media article called the movement “a tremendous reminder of the US policy of the DPRK and its host countries.” embarrassing double treatment“.
Analysts noted the implications of other elements of the Biden-Moon summit agreement and the potential revival of joint military exercises that North Korea sees as an attempt to invade.
South Korean peace activists have blamed the war games for sparking tensions, and the Moon administration has tried to suspend joint exercises – or at least tone them down – to create goodwill with Pyongyang.
General Paul LeCamera’s assertion as commander of the Korean Forces in the United States said that joint U.S. and South Korean military exercises are “very important to be prepared” and that vaccinations are given to South Korean and U.S. forces. with forces to continuously suspend joint annual military exercises, ”Yonsei’s Bonge said.
Despite the challenges, some of the Moon’s administration are optimistic that the Biden summit will lead to progress in peacebuilding in North Korea, despite the relative lameness of the South Korean president.
At the G7 summit in Cornwall, President Moon gave a warm welcome to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, but at the meeting a constant rumor with Japan was revealed [File: Stefan Rousseau/Pool via Reuters]
In the news at the end of his visit to the White House of the Moon, Biden referred to North Korea by its official name, RPDK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea), and more significantly, Biden introduced a special North Korean envoy, a veteran U.S. diplomat. and negotiator, Sung by Kim.
Moon himself suggested the appointment was a willingness to engage with North Korea in the U.S., and later told lawmakers that “appointing a special envoy to the U.S. RPRK is like making a public request for North Korea to resume talks.”
Sung Kim plans to make his first trip to Seoul.
During the five-day visit, which begins on Saturday, Kim will meet with members of South Korea and also hold bilateral talks with representatives of Japan. That may be uncomfortable when Tokyo canceled a meeting with South Korean officials at a recent Group of Seven (G7) summit in Cornwall and the three countries have relatively different views on how to deal with North Korea.
South Korean president has long advocated unconditional commitment, while US and Japan defend more wonderful strategies based on constant punishment.
As competition between the US and China intensifies, South Korea’s attempt to move its project forward towards North Korea will become increasingly dangerous.
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