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The American West is preparing for a hot, dry, and dangerous summer

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In New Mexico, where half of the state is in “extraordinary drought” conditions, there are water districts delaying allocations farmers and asking them if possible do not plant crops.

However, nearly 85% of the West is suffering from drought conditions right now, according to U.S. Drought Monitors. Nearly half of the region is in extreme or extreme drought, following dry and hot conditions that have been exacerbated by climate change.

The reason for this year’s drought is a weak summer monsoon, with storms heading north along with conditions in La Niña. But the problem goes beyond less rain and snow in recent months. The Southwest has suffered the driest period since the 1500s two decades ago, according to a study in Science in the first year.

Climate change is taking 46% of its severity, prompting scientists to believe that what was a moderate drought is “megadrought” territory. Numerous other studies have found that higher temperatures will lead to “more frequent and severe droughts in the Southwest”. indicate 2018 National Climate Assessment.

“The snow melts faster. There is more evaporation. The game just changes in so many different ways, ”says Newsha Ajami, director of urban water policy at Stanford’s Water in the West initiative.

Alarm clocks

Regions are competing to address the growing risks.

In California, Governor Gavin Newsom proposed Spending more than $ 5 billion to meet emergency water needs and care for regional water infrastructure, among other efforts. He too declare drought emergencies Across 41 counties, it covers northern California and Central Valley, a nearly rich agricultural region in the state.

Marin, in the northern region of San Francisco, which is isolated from regional water systems. The reservoirs are incredibly low this year after almost low rainfall. The range of water is being discussed as an option building at least temporary piping Crossing the Richmond – San Rafael Bridge to ensure water supply, for the first time since the state suffered a disastrous drought 1976–1977.

Investigators, officials and emergency officials are preparing for another horrific fire season, which is just beginning. The Palisades fire around Los Angeles has burned down More than 1,000 acres a dry brush in recent days, forcing more than 1,000 people to flee their homes.

“Some elements of fire season risk can be predicted; some are not, “says Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, based on atmospheric conditions that cause droughts, floods and fires.” All that can be predicted are alarm clocks. “

New normal

Some climate models find this heating increases variability models of precipitation, researchers studying California conditions “kolpeka”Between drought and extreme flooding.

But the extreme periods of the long years do not balance each other naturally, even if the average precipitation level remains the same. If the regions don’t basically rethink how they manage water, it too often means just moving from one type of disaster to another (see the 2012-2016 California drought, which immediately after years of flooding, caused mud, cleared roads and pushed a dam near the breaking point).

Drying “our mindset” is a normal thing “we need to change,” Ajami says. “And then when we have wet years, we should do it with excitement and billions of things to catch as much water as possible to save enough when it’s dry again.”

This will make better use of groundwater by cleaning contaminated aquifers and filling them with heavy rainfall. Regions will need to use water much more efficiently once it enters the system, reducing, reusing and recycling it whenever they can.

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