The arrest of the dissident has deterred the Belarusian opposition

Two years ago, after the arrest of a friend for alleged drug allegations by the Belarusian authorities, Roman Protasevich first arrested the suspects in Minsk and fled to Minsk, where he sought political asylum.

Since then, dissident bloggers and other opposition figures have fought against powerful President Alexander Lukashenko from European capitals such as Vilnius and Warsaw. The residence of large expatriate communities in accordance with the regime was not in their hands and they believed that they were protected by EU law.

Last Sunday, however, that calculation changed dramatically. Lukashenko entered a fighter jet forcibly down a Ryanair plane and Protasevich was arrested on his way home from Vilnius with his girlfriend from a Greek vacation.

“He thought he was safe. He had no way of knowing what was going to happen: he was on EU territory on an EU flight, “Protasevich’s father told Dmitry to the Financial Times.” I think the fear sank when he realized they were turning the plane. “

Lukashenko’s movements were immediately reprehensible in the west and The promise of EU sanctions. While this encouraged Belarusian opposition leaders, it also introduced a new layer of horror into their lives. Most are already in prison or in exile, and there they fear to go home for the safety of their relatives.

“It simply came to our notice then. Not in Belarus, not even in the EU, “said aide to Viacorka Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, an opposition presidential candidate who fled to Vilnius last year after threats from the Belarusian security agency, is still known as the KGB during his Soviet era.

Last August was the mustache of Lukashenko, a former collective farm leader who has ruled with an iron fist for 27 years. he did it against dissent, after hundreds of thousands protested his highly questionable election.

Since then, police have arrested more than 34,000 people on charges related to the protests, allegedly torturing many of those arrested. However, by these standards, Protasevich’s arrest was a worrying sign of the escalation of repression and the impending coming.

“All fugitives and protesters would be held accountable for their crimes,” Lukashenko threatened this week, making it clear that Belarus will persecute exiled activists anywhere.

Protasevich’s arrest was a special dread for Tsikhanouskaya and Viacorka, who had taken the same flight from Athens a week earlier. “The whole KGB is working right now to destroy Tsikhanouskaya. We need to be aware and take care of ourselves, ”Viacorka said.

The Belarusian exile community began to grow in 2010 after Lukashenko last faced major protests when he won the election.

In this regard, Western countries increased their support for the opposition media, including the US-funded Radio Free Europe and the Polish-funded Belsat. However, for several years dissidents continued to visit Belarus.

But then Nexta, the opposition channel for the Polish-based Telegram messaging app, began publishing leaks from Belarusian authorities and films implicating Lukashenko in corruption.

Then, last summer, Nexta played a major role in publishing accounts of the protests, although it sometimes appeared to be directed. It was then edited by Protasevich, and at one point his audience was 2m – a staggering number in a country of just 9.5m.

Nexta’s success widened the depth of the Belarusians ’frustration with Lukashenko. It also seems to have convinced Lukashenko that exiled dissidents posed an existential threat to his authority.

“Journalists and their channels did not diminish their words. They were really insulted [Lukashenko and his regime]”, Said Igor Trushkevich, a Belarusian dissident living in Ukraine.” It is entirely possible that Lukashenko was personally hurt. . . he does not forgive pardons. “

To tighten the noose around Protasevich, his family said a KGB agent tried to convince his father, a retired lieutenant colonel, to persuade his son to go to Prague, where he would be kidnapped by security forces. When his parents moved to Poland, Lukashenko personally removed Protasevich’s father from the military.

Nexta sources also became targets. The Belarussian Supreme Court this month sentenced an army officer to 18 years in prison for sending a document showing the “mass riots” to the Interior Ministry next to Nextari.

Stsiapan Putsila, the founder of Nexta, has said that they will be killed since Protasevich was arrested or handed over to Belarusian authorities or that their Warsaw office has been under threat since Protasevich was arrested.

“Of course, we have to be careful. . . all the comments suggest to us that we are next, “he told the FT after Protasevich.” But we have to keep going, we have to keep fighting, we have to keep talking against the regime and we will do that. “

In any case, Trushkevich believes that the forced landing of the Ryanair flight was also designed to frighten Nexta readers.

“The first sign is just to scare people away, making them think this can happen,” he said. “Second, to show their supporters how strong they are and how stable the government is. Anyone who crosses the line they have drawn will have problems – forever.”

After a tumultuous week, opposition within Belarus has stirred emotions. There is panic when Protasevich and his girlfriend are arrested. But there is hope that the international community will push for tougher action against Lukashenko, including heavy penalties.

“We tried to guess what was going on that day, I couldn’t sleep, I couldn’t eat. It was horrible, “said Minsk businessman Aksana.” On the other hand, I hope the situation has helped remind the world to pay attention to us because we can’t do it on our own. We’re not going to fight with guns. ”