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The Delta variant has distorted our perception of risk

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Remarkably, for all the confusion we had last winter, it was easy to find how consistent that consistency was. Partly because the people of Ibasho believed in a common set of facts and numbers based on scientific consensus: the virus spread through the air, masks and ventilation worked, it was better than being outside. By sharing these assumptions, a number of surprising situations (a grocery store, an outdoor barbecue, an office day) could be encapsulated with relatively few parameters. By spring, roommates were collecting risk points (because the level of personal responsibility and the level of freedom varies with the local case rate). But Catherine Olsson, the de facto leader of the project, told me that the rubrics helped her internalize what was safe. He knew, for the most part, what the expectations and needs of each week were and what points it would cost them. The pandemic risk became passive.

That happened before the coup this summer, before vaccines It seems until the pandemic is over. Mathematics yes more confusing now, it’s a little harder to intuit. Delta and rising case rates make all activities “more expensive” because of higher transmission. But being around other people who are vaccinated also offers a discount, as these people are more likely to have an active infection (and may be able to transmit the virus, even if the latest data on this is more vague). And the Microcovid team explained in a July update that vaccination also entails a larger overall budget, as the risk of death and hospitalization is much lower. The question is how much should our budgets increase?

Establishing a basic budget has always been difficult. This is important because all activity calculations are around it, but it is also the least based on statistics. “It’s really about feelings,” Olsson told me then, as personal as it is scientific. For Ibasho, a weekly budget of 10,000 microcovides came out to discuss how they felt about the personal risks and risks they loved, as well as a sense of global responsibility — that they could not live a non-violent life because they helped transmit them. the virus beyond them. Variations and vaccines have not changed these factors, although the balance between them has changed.

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I wasn’t sure how I felt about my budget. I did not use Microcovid personally outside of my report. Since I was in a relatively cloistered relationship with a partner and a young child without children, there was no pressure to sort out my risk issues. But this week, feeling like I’m going back to the sudden restrictions, I decided to do some calculations on the Microcovid website. I got into the activities of the previous weeks: maskless work, home dinners, a dance floor. (Lastly, while I was dialing the number of participants without a distance, he finally threw a blood-red code: “DANGEROUS RISK.”) So would I do it again next weekend? At current case rates, certainly not. Then I started making adjustments: adding masks (now required inside San Francisco, though), reminding myself that an indoor party could still happen outside, cutting clubs and remembering that I could feel better about eliminating some big risks. smaller.

There is a sad unity in these calculations: life, in August 2021, is not about living the moment, but the sum of our experiences. The dangers of a global pandemic are relocating to some street crossings, clearing our minds like satellites like harmless rumors. It’s hard to pass that more than 500 days from the order of St. Francis ’initial shelter, typing the pleasures of life into a calculator and charting the damage, and acknowledging that one’s options are limited. But it seemed like a healthy practice, with everything fixed. And maybe he would get back to life faster. I had a restrictive budget because cases in California were rising so fast, but I knew, since I had the vaccine, that I would release it somewhat when that increase diminishes, as it will eventually do. We will live with viral risk in the long run and take measures against it. For me it will lead to a decrease in life in some cases as well.


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