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“It’s about mutual interest,” U.S. President Joe Biden said at a June 16 press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin. His observations say it all.
The long-awaited summit in Geneva did not lead to a change in maritime relations between the US and Russia. There was no hope, on either side, that much would be done to fix the worst ties in decades.
Moscow and Washington are looking at it as an enemy, and will continue to do so in the future. There is no way, for strategic or ideological reasons. “Reset” is a thing of the past. Donald Trump’s openness to the Russians, especially the infamous summit in Helsinki in July 2018, worsened.
In contrast, the three-hour meeting between Putin and Biden seems to have gone pretty well. With the bar so low, the two leaders agreed on a few small steps and if they continue, the temperature between Washington and Moscow will drop. The formula is simple: set aside topics that are debatable and give them certain topics that you can give and take, as well as desirable ones.
The summit made a brief joint statement highlighting the achievements of Russia-America cooperation in strategic arms control earlier this year. In a phone call on Jan. 26, Putin and Biden agreed to extend the New Start pact, which expired in February, for another five years. This gave both sides time to work out an alternative agreement.
In addition, the two presidents agreed to return their ambassadors to their respective capitals, restoring normal diplomatic relations. The two diplomats were recalled by their governments in March-April, apparently for “consultations.”
The case to prove how far the commitment can go is greater in the Middle East. There are several issues that were discussed during the meeting. In Syria, the U.S. government wants a coordinated strategy to provide humanitarian aid, possibly crossing the Syrian-Turkish border.
Another issue raised by the Iranian nuclear deal is that Washington and Moscow can work together. The Biden administration has resumed talks with Tehran on how to return to the US Comprehensive Plan of Action. Russia, one of the signatories to the agreement and a partner in Iran, has a clear stake.
Post-retirement Afghanistan may be another area of mutual interest. Neither the US nor Russia would want to see the Taliban return to power in Kabul. With the disappearance of Western troops and the fear of the growth of radicalism in the Moscow region more than American expansionism, cooperation is likely.
If Russians and Americans find common ground in these critical issues, history will look favorably on the Geneva summit.
However, there is no consensus on key issues. Pragmatically in mind, the Biden group has stated that they hate to cut off some sort of calm from the Kremlin, both against the Russian domestic opposition and the war in Ukraine. The US must strike a fine balance: on the one hand, by upholding democratic principles, and on the other, by contacting Russia and treating it as a member of a powerful power. What Biden refers to Putin as a “decent rival” is music to the Kremlin’s ears, which shows respect.
However, Washington will not change to realpolitik and will move away from paths and principles. Be that as it may, the summit did not touch on anything in Ukraine, as it dominated the headlines a few weeks ago. There is no way for the US and Russia to engage in the kind of geopolitical trade that Putin would like to see.
As a result, the Moscow establishment will continue to look to America with suspicion and promote “regime change” and “color revolutions,” as it has done since the mid-2000s. The US, meanwhile, will see Russia as a flag bearer of global authoritarianism along with China.
Biden said part of his mission in Geneva that the U.S. government would fight against any attempt by the Russians to spark problems in the American homeland, whether through cyberattacks or other political interference, as before. To the 2016 presidential election.
Can this minimalist formula of bilateral relations advocated by Biden work but is supported by the Kremlin? Only time will tell.
Enemies and mistrust on both sides leave plenty of ground for skepticism. It won’t take long to create new tensions between Moscow and Washington. Although the US would like to focus on China and the Kremlin would prefer to promote its energy in domestic political support, the rivalry has developed its own life and is highly institutionalized.
But one way out of Geneva is that conditional commitment is not the lost cause. It is not in vain that Biden and Putin came out of the summit remarkably happy. Russia achieved what it wanted: the US to be treated as a partner. The Biden administration also pulled the miles out of a meeting it proposed in early April. The US president appeared against Putin but also made commitments.
Looking at the overall picture, the era of failed restorations between Russia and the US, the Bush, Obama and Trump presidencies, is over. What we have now, as Russian foreign policy observer Vladimir Frolov has warned, is “respectful hostility”. There is a good chance that this situation will be permanent.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the attitude of Al Jazeera’s editorial.
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