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Since the EU decided to divert a commercial plane with a military plane and arrest the opposition activist it carried, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has attracted Western anger and threats of economic sanctions – further isolating the sticky country in Eastern Europe.
On Wednesday, the powerful Belarusian made it clear that he deserved it all.
Speaking for the first time forced landing The arrests of Vilnius-linked Ryanair 4978 on Minsk and blogger Roman Protasevich and Russian girlfriend Sofia Sapega warned the 66-year-old former collective farm leader that it was only a “matter of time” before other dissidents were abroad. also caught.
“We know you visually,” he said.
Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus for 27 years, was already an international pariah after claiming victory in last summer’s disputed elections and repressing peaceful protests against his regime.
On Tuesday, the EU banned Belarus it is exploring sanctions that could cut off blockchain airspace and key sectors of the export market. With most of the earth’s borders closed and the country’s skies empty, Belarusians have other ways than Russia near Lukashenko.
But the seizure of the plane underscores the fact that despite international pressure, months after the protests were suppressed, Lukashenko’s home feels stronger, said Oslo University researcher Maryia Rohava.
“Feeling that they can commit this cruel act without fear of consequences is a very safe sign of Russia’s protection, their domestic situation and the EU’s lack of credible commitment to impose this kind. Punishments that would harm the regime,” he said.
“In the environment in which they operate, costing was also not part of the puzzle.”
It seemed for a brief moment last August that Lukashenko’s regime was about to collapse. Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets every Sunday to protest the election results, shouting when workers at a factory came to give a speech while they thought they were employing Lukashenko’s political base.
Lukashenko specifically attached to power by tightening control of the media, sending riot police to violently disperse protests and arresting dissidents, many say they have been subjected to torture. For the winter, weekly protests erupted.
Viasna, the Belarusian human rights association, says there are 421 political prisoners in 9.5 million countries, so much so that guards at some detention centers have been forced to wear yellow labels.
“The main reasons for these protests have not disappeared. They are just as significant as the complaints, “said Nigel Gould-Davies, a former UK ambassador to Minsk and now a fellow at the Institute for International Strategic Research.
After Protasevich was arrested, Belarusian authorities released videos of the blogger acknowledging “organizing mass unrest”, a crime that carries a 15-year prison sentence. Protasevichen aita he told Reuters he believed that his son’s nose was broken and that he was forced to admit guilt.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leader of the exiled opposition in Belarus, tweeted that Protasevich’s video and Sapega’s similar confession were “frightening”[terrorise] the whole country ”.
In an attempt to intimidate political opponents on Wednesday, Belarusian authorities released footage Vitold Ashurak is believed to be the last hours of the dissident’s life. The film featured an activist who died on May 21 from unknown causes, alone in a prison cell and unable to stand up, falling face-to-face twice.
Dmitry Stakhovsky, an 18-year-old orphan, committed suicide on Tuesday on charges of similar crimes to Protasevich and accused him of “moral pressure” from investigators over his death, according to a statement on social media.
“It’s a logical follow-up to what we’ve seen in recent months. No one stops the repression, there is no reason, and they continue, ”said Artyom Shraibman, a non-resident of Minsk’s Carnegie Moscow Center.“ Society is not rising again and the new punishments have been completely severe so far. So why should he stop? “
Protasevich’s arrest has boosted Lukashenko’s willingness to pursue dissidents abroad, Shraibman said. The Russian FSB arrested two opposition people in Moscow and handed them over to the Minsk KGB in April. Shortly afterwards, a senior Belarusian security official promised to “find and clean up” those responsible for the August protests.
The EU has refused to recognize the election after saying it had defeated Lukashenko Tsikhanouskaya, Who fled to Lithuania under pressure from the KGB.
French President Emmanuel Macron has invited Tsikhanouskaya to attend a G7 summit in London next month as the bloc examines economic sanctions against Belarusian companies and oligarchs on its list of opposition figures.
Hopes for a solution, however, have vanished Russia’s ongoing support for LukashenkoHe says Western intelligence is destabilizing Belarus as an attempt to wage a “hybrid war” against Moscow.
President Vladimir Putin has set aside his personal relationship with Lukashenko to offer billions of dollars in loans to Russia and will meet with Sochi on Friday.
Even though Moscow believes it is making a big effort to step down Lukashenko after a long-delayed constitutional referendum, the Kremlin’s continued support is enough to push Lukashenko to relieve pressure from Western pressure, according to Shraibman.
Instead, EU sanctions “could upset Lukashenko and increase it further,” Shraibman said.
“There is no way to soften the stance without Russia taking part in the process, or by increasing Russia’s costs. Because for now Lukashenko feels that he is supporting Russia, and he is doing what he likes.”
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