Will Libyan commander Haftar run in the December elections? | Election news

Analysts say Libya’s recognized military commander Khalifa Haftar is softening his political image ahead of the election after being disrupted on the battlefield and weakening his support.

Eastern Haftar forces have been fighting for more than a year to seize the capital Tripoli in the west, but the defeat last June sparked UN-sponsored peace talks, a unity government and national elections in December.

“He hopes the election will achieve political victory after the military defeat,” said international relations professor Miloud el-Hajj.

Haftar has emerged as a key player in dictator Muammar Gaddafi’s 2011 decade of post-government violence.

The commander has fought armed groups and built a strong support base among the influential tribes of eastern Libya, as well as neighboring Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia.

But two years after the Libyan National Army backed an attack to oust the Turkish-backed unity government from Tripoli, the picture is very different.

Last October, a formal truce launched a UN-led process that led to the country’s divided institutions launching reconstruction efforts and the creation of an interim government responsible for preparing for the December vote.

Haftar did not keep a low profile during the talks, but has returned in recent weeks with public rallies and commitments to build three new villages and thousands of homes for “martyr” families.

El-Hajje said that “his tone and language have changed … he has abandoned his military discourse” in favor of commitments to improve living conditions.

“Facing the Challenge”

Haftar built his power around Libya’s second largest city, Benghazi, overthrew Gaddafi and killed the eastern cradle of the 2011 NATO protection uprising.

He found allies among the powerful tribes in the region who supplied many troops for various military offensives of the Haftars.

But today, Haftar has “lost the support base,” according to Libyan analyst Mahmoud Khalfallah.

“He no longer has the undeniable support of the tribes, who accuse them of taking part in the war that many of their sons failed in,” Khalfallah said.

“He knows that they no longer trust him and that they would not leave their sons again for another war.”

Despite several meetings with tribal leaders in an attempt to regain his support, Haftar faces “serious challenge issues,” Libyan specialist Jalel Harchaoui said.

“Its finances have dried up and hopes for territorial expansion in the west have been blocked,” Harchaoui added.

Khalfallah said Haftar’s foreign allies have also been cautious and have thrown weight behind the new interim government.

“His foreign sponsors … understand that the political process is the only possible solution” to safeguard their interests in Libya, he said.

Haftar seeks a “political victory”

The Haftar have played a conflict but a key role in Libya since it fell into chaos after Gaddafi’s power.

Ahead of the Tripoli kidnapping campaign, a successful operation began in May 2018 to oust the insurgents from the eastern city of Derna, followed by another in 2019 in the oil-rich desert south.

El-Hajj said he served in Gaddafi’s armed forces before the fall of Libya in 1987 after the severe defeat of Libya in Chad.

A European diplomatic source has warned that if major actors like Haftar are left out of the political process, they could become “spoilers” and undermine efforts to stabilize the country.

Hamisk Kinnear Verisk Maplecroft analyst said Haftar could run in the presidential election or reject a candidate.

Kinnear said that if the presidential and legislative polls are postponed from December, Haftar will “probably use that to denounce the transitional government as illegal and return the conflict to arms.”

But, he added, Haftar “was no longer as strong as before.”