Zelensky has had to face “reality” because of the peace process with Russia
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is fighting to restore the blockade of the peace process that allegedly ended a slow conflict with the Russian-backed forces in the country’s far east.
The Moscow Massif military construction On the eastern border of Ukraine and occupied Crimea last month, followed by partial troops withdrawal“It was a clear success from the Kremlin’s point of view,” said Kurt Volker, a former US special envoy to Ukraine. he wrote in the first week. Russia’s saber “saw Ukraine as weak as the West moved away from a military display of strength [Vladimir] Putin has strengthened his position in the region.
Zelensky, elected in 2019 with the promise of ending the war in the Donbas region, has little chance of breaking the blockade because he has not defeated Western allies in Kyiv behind more economic sanctions against Russia and Washington is willing to enter a new diplomacy. the effort is not clear.
The former comedian is also struggling to bring Putin to the table for peace talks with leaders of Western countries that support Kyiv.
Zelensky has had to admit that the Russian president, for now, cannot want peace in Donbas, where 14,000 fighters and civilians have been killed – unless Kyiv agrees to conditions that are not politically acceptable to any Ukrainian leader.
A senior Ukrainian official admitted that it took Zelensky two years to “face reality”.
“Ukraine is committed to peace and is ready to do everything in its power to achieve that peace,” said a presidential adviser. “However, both sides want peace and Moscow’s recent belligerent behavior has cast great doubt on its intention,” the adviser added.
Zelensky tell last week the Financial Times reported that the US and the UK wanted to join a group called Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia in Normandy to help break the impasse.
He also called for changes to the Minsk peace agreement negotiated by the four Normandies, which has not yet been implemented, to focus on the conditions and sequencing of Kyiv and Moscow. But the Kremlin refuses to renegotiate the deal. “There is no way to change that, in fact, without ending it,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last week in response to Zelensky’s appeal on FT.
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Paris and Berlin, meanwhile, fearing a move away from the Minsk agreement could frighten Moscow. It would also be more difficult to dismantle EU sanctions on Russia.
Andriy Yerma, Zelensky’s chief employee, admitted in a televised interview last week that Kyiv had no chosen diplomatic strategy.
“It is necessary to continue working in all directions and in all formats,” he said. “Because in the end we don’t know what format peace will bring to our territory, all our territories, all our people back and the end of the war,” Yermak added.
In his first year as president, Zelensky won a quick victory after negotiations in Paris with Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Russia and its separatist representatives in Donbas, which controls the escape of two regions of Ukraine’s industrial heart, convinced hundreds to exchange war prisoners. However, the process has stalled and the new ceasefire agreed in July 2020 has been broken this year.
Kyiv stresses that it is not necessary to give the breakaway areas lasting autonomy, as this status would frustrate their desire to join the EU and NATO. Moscow and its representative in Donbas have “refused” to give Kyiv control of the region and the border before holding elections with Ukraine as a step towards reintegration.
Zelensky last month sparked one-on-one talks with Putin, something he has avoided so far during the conflict. Putin refused Zelensky’s request to join the front line and made a proposal to discuss bilateral relations — not the Donbas war — if Zelensky were to come to Moscow. Putin added that on the Donbas issue, Zelensky should hold talks with the leaders of the fugitive republics under Russian protection, and refuses to run for president of Ukraine.
“Putin has shown that he does not want to give Zelensky anything interesting, let alone reach a peace agreement,” said Danylo Lubkivsky, director of the Kyiv Security Forum. “Only international collective pressure can lead Putin to liberate these captive Ukrainian territories.”
Zelensky hopes the greater role of U.S. President Joe Biden, along with France and Germany, or in bilateral talks with Putin, could help push Moscow toward engagement.
“It is strategically important to bring Biden. . . America should be back at the table on two tracks to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity, in Crimea and Donbas – because that is the issue of global security, ”Lubkivsky added.
But Kyiv is unclear how strong Washington will take on a new peace initiative. While Biden is a friend of Ukraine, his administration has Obama-era officials who were skeptical of deeper involvement in the U.S. six years ago. Secretary of State Antony Blink will visit Kyiv on May 5.
What the U.S. and other Western powers could do to help Ukraine regain its territorial integrity was a “serious problem,” senior State Department official George Kent told the Kyiv Security Forum last week. The challenge, he said, was to “try to change Russia’s cost calculations and behavior.”
One way for the U.S. to increase pressure on Moscow would be to withhold U.S. debt for issuing Russian-denominated Russian debt, Kent said.
But changing Russian behavior “is not easy. And no one has found a winning solution. “
Sarah Lain, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute based in Kyiv, said expressions of solidarity with Western Kyiv are also important. Many capitals now see the Ukraine-Russia conflict as “part of Russian politics” rather than some bilateral conflict.
“That’s important for Zelensky to stand up,” he added.
Maria Zolkina, an analyst at the Kyiv-based Foundation for Democratic Initiatives, said that “Putin-dependent Russia will be able to return control of these territories under conditions acceptable to Ukraine if Russia finds itself in deep financial and technological constraints.”
“But the problem in the West is that no one will impose such sanctions, worried that it will increase Russia’s enemies,” he added.
Some Ukrainian analysts and officials have rejected a long-frozen conflict and say Kyiv’s best strategy is to rebuild the economy and modernize its state. A Ukrainian official described it as a “West German strategy”: to maintain Putin’s attention and create peace after Russia’s new leadership came to power, but from a position of relative strength.
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