Energy groups need to halt new oil and gas projects to achieve zero net by 2050, IEA says

Energy groups will have to halt all new oil and gas exploration projects this year if global warming is to be kept under control, the International Energy Agency said.

The proposal is a radical scenario outlined here a report As for ways to achieve a net carbon dioxide emission by 2050, the goal of the Paris agreement is to raise temperatures by more than 1.5 C to pre-industrial levels.

In addition to drastically reducing fossil fuel consumption, it would also require an unprecedented leap in low-carbon technologies – energy investments of about $ 5 billion by 2030 a year, now more than about $ 2 billion, the report said.

“We need a historic increase in investment,” Fatih Birol, head of the IEA in Paris, said on Tuesday, adding that this would add 0.4 percent to GDP growth each year. “Most of it needs to be clean energy.”

IEA Net Zero Report Founded in 1974 as an oil watchdog in Western countries, it was under pressure from entrepreneurial climates to pave the way for this goal.

A review of energy supply and demand is determined, demand for coal would fall by 90%, demand for gas would be halved and demand for oil would be reduced by almost 75% by 2050.

Dave Jones, an analyst at the Ember Climate Thinking Workshop, said the report called for a halt to new oil and gas exploration due to the agency’s history.

“I don’t think anyone expected it from the IEA. It’s a tremendous turnaround on their part,” he said. “It’s been very fossil-friendly, so it’s amazing to come up with something like that…. This is really a knife in the fossil fuel industry.”

The majority of the global economy aims to achieve zero zero emissions, which means eliminating almost all carbon dioxide emissions and offsetting the rest through carbon sequestration programs.

While the report is not a prediction or recommendation, many IEA scenarios are considered definitive by many governments and often form the basis for energy policy.

As more governments, including the United Kingdom, the EU and China, commit to reducing emissions to zero, the IEA report sets out what the challenge will be to achieve this. “It’s a narrow road,” Birol said. “But it can still be achieved.”

Many large oil companies and producing countries, such as Opec, have long argued that investment in new fossil fuel projects should continue to meet the needs of emerging economies in Asia and Africa.

However, the model reduction in fossil fuel consumption by the IEA is much more severe than that prepared by most producers. The global energy supply of fossil fuels should now be reduced from about four to five by 2050. It would become the largest source of solar energy, which is 20% of energy demand.

“Countries whose economies are based on oil and gas revenues will face major challenges,” Birol said. “We pulled out more than 400 milestones, and one of them is that there is no need for new developments in oil, gas and coal, and that there is no need for oil and gas exploration investments.”

The IEA acknowledged, however, that “continued investment is needed in existing oil production sources.”

As oil demand declines, the share of oil production controlled by Opec will increase by about 37 percent and about 52 percent by 2050, according to the report.

It predicts carbon-free electricity by 2040, with research grants rising over the next decade for new technologies such as batteries and hydrogen electrolyzers.

Joeri Rogelj, a professor of climate change at Imperial College, said the IEA’s clean zero scenario is incredibly significant.

Improving energy efficiency means that global energy demand by 2050 will be about 8 percent lower than it is today, even though the world economy will be twice as large. The use of electricity will grow, as by 2050 it will be about half of total energy consumption.

“The IEA is used as a de facto reference for many planners, both by governments and industry,” said Rogelje, who called on the IEA to develop a clean zero scenario.

Previous IEA scenarios were heavily criticized for not incorporating enough renewable energy and underestimating the rate at which the solar and wind world is growing.

“If you look back over the last decade, the IEA scenarios have always been a bit behind,” Rogelj said. “The IEA machine is slow, gray, rusty and dusty, and it takes some time. . . but I’m glad to see that the IEA has reached zero ground. “

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