Cracks appear in Netanyahu’s armor as the deadline arrives

In the four elections that have been stalled for the past two years, Benjamin Netanyahu has managed to hold on to the key assets of a master politician, the air of vital victory.

But with two days to go before the clock runs out to try to lead a coalition together, after the March poll closes, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister suddenly appears cornered.

His right-wing alliance is missing two seats from the 61-seat majority in the Knesset and in three weeks public cajoling, back room negotiation and parliamentary machines have not achieved a single diversion to the prime minister’s camp five times.

If he fails, the president will appoint an opposition leader after May 4 – most likely Yair Lapid, a former TV presenter and centrist party leader Yesh Atid – to try to form a coalition. It seems that a divided opposition that unites only the desire to dismantle Netanyahu is coming together to form a minority government, temporarily backed by an Islamist party. Model of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Since the liberal Israeli media created President David Ben-Gurion, they are already talking about the political disappearance of the most influential leader of the Jewish state. “Have you ever seen vultures in Jerusalem?” A central committee in Likud joked in a message to the FT. They are surrounding the Prime Minister’s residence, “Balfour House right now.”

But while Netanyahu’s chances have dwindled, remains a master strategist, said veteran surveyor Dahlia Scheindlin. “Part of the reason to always come out victorious, [is] because he fights all battles, before and after the election, like a fight for life or death, “he said.” Like a chess player, he always thought a few steps ahead of everyone else, but now other players are catching up. “

As a sign that some see his despair, Netanyahu’s camp has leaked options, such as the Putin-style presidency, where he would turn off a temporary loyalist in a rotating prime minister while he remained at the official headquarters. (“Medvedev’s solution,” the Times of Israel newspaper reported, referring to the former Russian prime minister). One candidate is Benny Gantz, who last year convinced Netanyahu to join the coalition government but ran for office before Gantz’s turn to become prime minister. Fat has reportedly refused.

Although Netanyahu seems to be at a standstill, it is still unclear whether the opposition’s liking for the prime minister is enough to overcome the differences between them.

Marathon talks have so far disagreed on almost every issue: the size of the cabinet, which would have the rotating prime minister for the first time, how to attract Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies from the Likud camp, and which one would officially receive an order to form a coalition after May 4.

Perhaps the biggest problem they face is one that has defeated Netanyahu. Dissatisfied Ra’am is at the center of Israel’s electoral blockade, a breakaway government made up of five Arab parliamentarians in a parliament that has ended its decade-long tradition, will consider supporting the Zionist government.

In exchange, Mansour Abbas head of Ra’am He has established two simple basic rules – his party will be treated with respect and the government he supports will give more money to Arab-dominated schools, hospitals and police in northern Israel. “Anyone who gives me recognition and legitimacy, ties my hands and asks me what I want for Arab society – I will go with it,” he said last week.

Zionist religious Arabs appear in Netanyahu’s right-wing camp. They have responded to the possibility of cooperating with Ra’am to keep Netanyahu in power, with Abbas voters calling for supporters of terrorism.

Lapid and Naftali Bennett, once Netanyahu’s chief of staff, the current promising prime minister and Yamina’s leader, a strong right-wing and pro-settlement party, have not yet fallen out with Abbas. But while they have found themselves discussing options for a minority government, they are still not convinced by the right-wing members of their parties.

“Netanyahu is in the weakest position of his career, but that doesn’t mean he is incapable of reaching an acceptable agreement that serves him well,” said Abraham Diskin, a professor of political science at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. . “People are willing to try all sorts of alternatives because the hope for the fifth election is very bleak.”

Hanging on top of the drama is the trial for Netanyahu’s corruption, it will take months to get a verdict and a few years before the appeals are exhausted. Netanyahu calls the trial a witch hunt, but daily hearings add details to allegations of accepting expensive gifts from wealthy friends and wanting to reward a newspaper publisher with positive coverage with regulatory benefits. He has denied all allegations.

As a sign of the extent of the bet, Netanyahu last week briefly supervised the attorney general to appoint a loyalist in the interim government he currently heads. He turned it around after the high court upheld the attorney general’s opinion.

The incident underscored the ongoing stress of the election and the struggle to maintain power in Israeli institutions, President Reuven Rivlin said. “For a long time, we’ve been living with the illusion of constitutional functionality between one election campaign and the next, but it seems that… Another barrier has fallen,” Rivlin said.