[ad_1]
The Argentine government says it could double exports in the next five years, despite a severe economy and one of the most important exports in the last month – okela.
Argentina is one of the countries most affected by coronavirus, which has deepened the economic crisis three years ago. Inflation is 49 percent and with negotiations IMF As a result of the repayment of the $ 44 billion loan, it worries investors.
However, Matias Kulfas, the production minister, stressed that the economy is turning the corner.
“This is a crucial moment when a lot of investment is coming in, which will make a significant leap in exports,” Kulfas told the Financial Times.
Kulfas believes new projects in sectors such as mining, energy, manufacturing and the automotive industry could double exports by about $ 65 billion over the next five years.
Economists and private analysts say the forecast is too rosy. Although the NDF forecasts 5.8% growth this year, while agricultural power is benefiting from rising commodity prices, the economy hired 10 percent last year – there is no going back to what was once a pandemic.
Kulfas has cited $ 20 billion in investment announcements since President Alberto Fernández took office in December 2019. He said new mining projects alone could add $ 12 billion to exports, while Argentina’s economic knowledge is expected to bring in $ 4 billion more in the coming years. .
“The fact is that there is potential and there is also international demand. That is the reality. Then we’ll see how successful we are [ensuring that all these projects] it’s actually moving forward, ”Kulfas said, noting that it also depends on how the project progresses.
Although many agree that export growth is the clearest way to ensure sustainable economic growth in a country with an endemic shortage of foreign currency, Argentina has constantly strived to do so. Since the 1950s, the economy has experienced repeated crises, with the country experiencing a longer recession except the Democratic Republic of Congo.
“At the pace they’ve gone, I don’t see Argentina anywhere near me [to doubling exports in the next five years]”Said local economist Martin Rapetti.
One agrees, however, that the government is based on the right sectors. “What I’m not seeing are signs that they will implement policies to make that happen,” he added, fearing that other more radical leaders of the multi-coalition government could undermine Kulfas ’effort.
Last month, meat exports were suspended for 30 days after doubling local prices in the last year, affecting domestic consumption of one of the country’s most significant products. Many officials were concerned that this could damage the government’s reputation ahead of the midterm elections in November.
A local producer mocked Kulfas’s hopes of doubling beef exports in the current situation: “This will not happen. [export taxes] and controlled exchange rate. . . We’re losing customers every day, and it’s going to be hard to get some of them back. ”
The government’s reluctance to intervene in all sectors of the economy (from price and currency controls and to tariff freezes to threats of nationalization) will be feared as not the private investment needed to boost exports. Added to these fears is the growing influence of the vice president, the former leader Cristina Fernandez, was known for its constant involvement in the economy.
Kulfas acknowledged that forecasting investment policies was essential. “Investment is an important part of what allows us to move forward over time. Unfortunately, our starting point was very negative,” he said, stressing the need to restructure Argentina’s public debt, which “creates great uncertainty,” as well as a severe fiscal deficit and depleted foreign exchange reserves.
While the government is trying to solve these problems, Kulfas stresses that investment has continued to arrive and that the economy is recovering. He pointed out that the industrial sector is already producing more than in 2019 before the onset of coronaviruses.
“We have an economy that is moving at different speeds today. There are growing sectors such as industry, construction and agriculture, and in some cases growing a lot, along with other sectors. [such as tourism] they have had a very hard blow, ”Kulfas said.
He denied that there had been an exodus of foreign companies from Argentina since Fernandez took office. Last year he said Walmart’s departure was due to an international restructuring plan, and the local company that bought the business continued to invest.
“We’re seeing the opposite [of an exodus], they are positioning a lot of sectors because they see that Argentina is at a turning point, ”he said.
However, Emily Hersh, a partner in the financial advisory firm of the DCDB Group, which has offices in Buenos Aires, is skeptical: “Many deep pockets don’t want to put serious money into Argentina now.”
Whether Argentina’s initial and uneven economic recovery this year will depend on the country’s ability to modernize its economy, Kulfas says, is developing new sectors such as lithium, renewable energy and medicinal hemp.
“A lot of people ask me, do you really think it’s time for a digitization program.[or]to talk about the green revolution? And I say yes. It is now. Year after year, because we will be behind the changes that are taking place in the world. . . and miss the train “.
[ad_2]
Source link
