China says the risk of damage from rocket debris is “very low,” according to Space News

China said on Friday that the risk of damage from a rocket returning to Earth was “very low” after the United States warned it could fall into a nearby population.

U.S. military experts expect the body of the March Long 5B rocket, which was separated from the Beijing space station on Saturday or Sunday, to drop sometime, but has warned that it is difficult to land where and when it will take off.

But Beijing underestimated the risk. “The probability of causing aviation activities or damage to the ground is very low,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin.

Most of the rocket’s components would probably be destroyed when it enters the atmosphere, adding that the authorities will “inform the public of the situation in a proper manner.”

China has poured billions of dollars into space exploration in an effort to reflect the growing level and technological potential of the world, following foreign footsteps in the United States, Russia and Europe.

‘Shoot it down’?

While social media was shaken by feverish speculation about the rocket’s return to Earth, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Thursday that the U.S. military had no intention of firing.

“We have the ability to do a lot of things, but we don’t intend to throw it away,” Austin told reporters.

Luckily, he said, the rocket will land “in a place that won’t hurt anyone … in an ocean or a place like that.”

Even if the rocket or parts of it fall from the sky without breaking on re-entry, there is a high chance that it will launch into the ocean on a planet made up of 70 percent water.

But Austin suggested that the Chinese were reckless in letting the rocket’s body fall out of orbit, saying that those in the “space domain” should “function safely and thoughtfully.”

When the rocket’s fall falls into space when it is placed in Earth’s atmosphere, “it cannot be determined a few hours after re-entry,” and that is expected to be around May 8, the U.S. Space Command said.

Harvard astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell said parts of the rocket were likely to fall to the ground, such as in May 2020, when parts of China’s Long March 5B rocket rained down in Côte d’Ivoire, damaging several buildings.

It may be that the hazardous debris will escape from incineration after entering the atmosphere at hypersonic speed, but it would probably fall into the sea.

Based on the current orbit, it is likely that the trail of debris will fall north and south like New York, Madrid or Beijing to southern Chile and Wellington, New Zealand or anywhere else, McDowell said.

‘Nation of Science’

The space has become the last theater of a powerful play between China and the United States.

The launch of the first module of its “Sky Palace” space station in China in April – life support equipment and accommodation for astronauts – was a milestone in the ambitious plan to establish a permanent human presence in space in Beijing.

President Xi Jinping described it as a key step in “building a great nation of science and technology.”

With the withdrawal of the International Space Station from 2024 onwards, China could become the only space station in Earth orbit.

Although Chinese space authorities have said they are open to foreign cooperation, the scope of that cooperation is still unclear.

The European Space Agency has sent astronauts to China to receive training once they are ready to work inside the Chinese space station.

China also said in March that it planned to build a separate lunar space station with Russia.

The planned facility on Earth’s crust or in the orbit of the Moon would house experimental research facilities and would be the largest international cooperation project to date in Beijing.

The March Long rocket is not the first time China has lost control of a spacecraft when it returns to Earth.

The Tiangong-1 space laboratory was dismantled when it entered the atmosphere in 2018, two years after it ceased to operate, even though Chinese authorities denied losing control of the spacecraft.