Espionage and stability: Djibouti moves forward with “return to cold war”

At the top of the lighthouse at Cape Desert, Ali Hassan crosses the Alik Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to war-torn Yemen. Then, in the background, to war-torn Ethiopia. Then, to his right, in confused Somalia. Eventually, to his left in Eritrea, the neighboring Tigray conflict dictatorship.

“This is a point of peace, of trade,” said the person in charge of turning on the lights. Djibouti, a former French colony with a population of one million, is a rare point of stability in a very strategic location, at the southern tip of the Red Sea, en route to the Suez Canal, the focus of global trade.

About a third of the world’s daily shipments pass through the northeastern edge of Africa, and the water is squeezed to a place opposite Yemen.

Anticipating economic growth of up to 7 percent this year, double the African average, according to the finance ministry, thanks to Chinese investment in ports, free trade zones and Ethiopian railways to the sea, Djibouti will be the continent’s fastest growing economy.

The headquarters of the five navies, China’s first overseas military base since 2017, has its geopolitical and economic significance. Aboubaker Omar Hadi, president of the Djibouti Ports and Free Zones Authority and one of the most important men in the country, is the “location, location, location” account.

Whispers, spies and spies

“It simply came to our notice then and stability, “said Nima Dirieh Warsama, director general of the ATD-GIE transport industry group. This stability is aided by French tanks, U.S. helicopters, Chinese soldiers and Japanese ships. since.

However, the government remains a neutral host of global powers, sometimes easing tensions between Americans and Chinese, a senior government official called for a “return to the Cold War” where “Djibouti is completely epicenter.” “What gives this effervescence from Djibouti is the fact that the great powers are here, so it means it is safe,” the official added.

The French have trained 11,000 soldiers, mostly in Djibouti, and are protecting the country’s airspace with Mirage fighter jets. “We are really a security guarantee here,” said Gen Stéphane Dupont, a base commander who takes in 1,500 French soldiers. Other powers, such as the US, agree. Djibouti is the backbone of a global coalition against al-Shabaab, a Somali terrorist group linked to al-Qaeda, as well as a lesser threat of piracy now.

Some believe that the arrival of China, which made investments of $ 853 billion between 2005 and 2019, and owns 30 percent of Djibouti’s total debt, is worrying. “It’s a tsunami, it’s really a tsunami,” said a senior official in western Djibouti, referring to the Chinese presence from investments to soldiers. “They are not enemies, but neither are they friends. And we have to live together. “

Djibouti politicians, U.S. contractors and French officials gather in dresses at Café de la Garea to whisper what the Chinese military can do in their concrete fort. It is the first overseas military base in China to protect merchant ships. It has a pier that can hold China’s “aircraft carriers in the future,” according to U.S. Commander-in-Chief Stephen Townsend Gen. he said recently.

“Djibouti is in a key geostrategic region because all members of the international community have a special interest,” said Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf. “We recognize that there is severe economic competition between the major powers,” he added, but stressed that his country “is not in any sphere of influence.”

Ilyas Moussa Dawaleh, the country’s finance minister, said: “It’s really false that this idea will take China completely to Djibouti, it’s a myth.”

Many agree that the atmosphere of the port city, where most of the population lives, is similar Casablanca, a film about intrigue and romance in World War II. “Everyone is spying on each other,” a senior foreign diplomat said.

“We know very well that the Chinese want to spy. It doesn’t mean we don’t do the same thing, “said a Western military officer based in Djibouti.” We’re all friends here, but we all like to know what the other person is doing. ”

Democratic wear or 99 percent support?

Another key factor for stability, many say, is Ismail Omar Guelleh, the 73-year-old president. He has ruled the country since 1999 and critics say he is the wicked and wise head of what he calls centralized autocracy.

“It’s the only game in town,” said a non-African diplomat. “Over time there has been wear and tear on the democratic front.”

Guelleh is credited with turning Djibouti into a base for cargo shipments and foreign military. The size of the economy is a jump of $ 536 million when he took office in 2019 to $ 3.3 billion. His portrait is everywhere in every store, office and building. Last month, he won the fifth legislature with 99 percent of the vote.

Opposition leader Zakaria Ismail Farah, a newcomer, said that “99 percent have never happened in the world, except in a country with an extreme dictatorship.” He said Djibouti’s foreign powers had “sacrificed Djibouti’s democracy for the sake of regional stability.”

President Alexis Mohamed’s top adviser dismissed Farah’s criticism, stressing that there are already discussions about Guelleh’s “political future in Djibouti,” which is legally the president’s last term.

The president “has managed to maintain peace and social cohesion in a region of tensions in Djibouti, Ethiopia and Somalia,” he said. “God didn’t give us oil,” Ali added to the lighthouse, echoing it, “but it gave us a strategic point.”