Ethiopians in conflict and apathy Election news

After some deliberation, Shimelis Yohannes * decided to register for the delayed vote in Ethiopia general election it will be on Monday.

“I took the ballot because it’s better than holding elections,” an official in the capital Addis Ababa said. But, he quickly adds, he is not excited about a vote spread by the conflict in the northern Tigray region, where instability and apathy are spread elsewhere.

“I don’t think my vote will change anything or decide the future direction of Ethiopia, but at least I can tell myself that I have tried my best,” says Yohannes, who will support an opposition party.

While among the 38 million people who registered to vote in national and regional parliamentary elections, Bruk Gemechu *, who lives in the city of Shashemene, about 250 kilometers southeast of Addis Ababa, says he will abstain.

Private sector professionals say the Oromian region, Ethiopia’s largest, has no credible opposition party to compete with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Party of Prosperity (PP) after two popular Oromo ethnic political parties – the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) – boycotted the polls he decided to do. The parties have complained that the election has no legitimacy, citing the inability to compete while top leaders and party members are behind the bar and other members are subjected to physical violence.

“Local PP cadres were forcing weak sections of society to withdraw voter registration cards and are now threatening sanctions if they vote in favor of a few candidates from other opposition parties,” Gemechu alleged.

The youth of Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, Oromos, who make up about 35 percent of the country’s estimated 110 million people, were at the forefront of two-and-a-half-year protests against the government that brought Abiy to power in April 2018.

However, Abiy Oromo has fallen out with many leaders of the youth movement. Some prominent members of the OFC, including Jawar Mohammed and Bekele Gerba, remain in charge of the stars behind the bars due to unrest over the death of renowned Oromo musician and activist Hachalu Hundessa last year.

The PP, however, has stressed that the elections will be free and fair – it is the first historic in Ethiopia. Monday’s polls will be the sixth since the communist government of Mengistu Haile Mariam was ousted in 1991. The previous five contests – won by the four-party alliance of the now-disbanded Democratic Front of the Ethiopian Revolutionary People – were marred by allegations of fraud and irregularities.

“The ruling party is very ready for democracy … and the people are very enthusiastic,” said Bikila Wold of the PP. “While these opportunities are there, the challenges are very clear, as Ethiopia has a very highly polarized political system for a very long time, known for its dictatorial regimes. Modern and civilized political exercises are scarce in this country. “

While the ruling party is calling for a vote – initially scheduled for 2020 but first delayed due to the coronavirus pandemic and later delayed due to logistical challenges – some fear the potential could reduce the temperature of the polarized political environment.

An analyst in Addis Ababa, who declined to comment on the charged political climate, said the survey would be conducted between the rise of COVID-19 cases and lobster invasions, as well as “the conflicting and conflicting economy in the Tigray region.” it has left the region completely dependent on humanitarian aid ”.

Thousands of people have been killed, if not more, in the seven-month war in Tigray, and about two million have been displaced, the United Nations warned this week of 350,000 famine conditions.

“The Ethiopian army, which was allegedly tasked with transporting election materials, is involved in the Tigray conflict, as well as fighting riots in several states in Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz region,” the analyst said. “I see it as unthinkable to see the PP gaining electoral legitimacy from the polls at the moment.”

Given the security and logistical challenges in various parts of Ethiopia, the Ethiopian National Electoral Commission (NEBE) announced earlier this month that voting will not be nearly one-fifth of Ethiopia’s 547 polling stations.

The NEB has said voting in non-participating constituencies next week will take place on Sept. 6, but Tigray – who has 38 seats – is indefinitely excluded for the time being.

“I see only one constituency represented in the polls; that’s the elite city and the Amhara region, ”the analyst said.

While the PP is a pioneer in getting the most seats, it is expected to face a serious electoral challenge in the Addis Ababa and Amhara region, the second most populous population in Ethiopia.

Already, several opposition people have publicly announced that acceptance of the results is conditional on a fair counting of votes.

In 2005, police protesters took to the streets of Addis Ababa to denounce election irregularities, killing nearly 200 protesters, as well as six police officers.

Both Yohannes and analysts shared concerns about post-election violence in the two areas that were the most competitive in the election, but Abiy announced in a recent campaign appearance on Wednesday that the polls would be peaceful.

“The whole world says we will fight, but we will show them in a different way,” Abiy told Jimma village fans. “I tell all Ethiopians [engaged] Struggling to ensure a peaceful, democratic and prosperous Ethiopia, ”the prime minister added, denouncing“ traitors ”and“ outsiders ”in June for working to weaken Ethiopia.

Police in Addis Ababa are taking part in a parade wearing riot gear to show off their new uniforms [Baz Ratner/Reuters]

On Saturday, 48 hours before the polls opened, police in central Addis Ababa took part in a parade attended by high-ranking government officials to show off new police uniforms.

For the analyst, even if the fears of post-election violence do not materialize, the short-term future of post-election Ethiopia will not be rosy.

“I don’t see the deteriorating security environment that doesn’t change the election or increase the pressure on parts of the international community,” the analyst said.

“I see a military stalemate between the rebels and the Ethiopian army – backed by forces in Eritrea and the surrounding Amhara region – for the time being as the humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which frustrates young Oromo youths, continues to outlaw the rebel movement.) “, added the analyst.

“It is likely that the fragmented punishments of Western nations (linked to the Tigray war) will increase, with the consequences first and foremost affecting the lower economic class of society, before reaching out to senior government officials.”

* Name changed to protect their identity