Tokyo has warned that locals are at greater risk of Covid for the Olympics than visitors
[ad_1]
The biggest risk for Covid-19 for the Tokyo Olympics is not the thousands of athletes and officials coming from abroad but whether it will lead to greater mobility and socialization among local people, according to experts studying the event.
Even if the anxiety of the people in Japan it focuses on 100,000 athletes, coaches, officials and reporters began to arrive Seven weeks before the games, epidemiologists said the biggest risk was changing people’s behavior.
Their analysis helps explain why Japan has progressed with the Olympics, despite widespread opposition, because Tokyo may limit public mixing if it ultimately decides to hold the games without spectators.
“More than the number of people, how they behave. That’s the problem, ”said a Japanese health administrator who has seen official epidemiological advice.
They remain below Tokyo and other major cities in Japan Covid-19 state of emergency, doctors, businessmen and 80 percent of the Japanese public are calling for the cancellation of the Olympics. Slow progress vaccine it means that most Japanese are vulnerable to the disease.
Japan has given at least one dose of vaccine to 9% of the population,
Experts distinguish four risks in summer games: Olympic visitors spreading coronaviruses; greater mobility among the Japanese public; stress on medical resources; and the threat of new Covid-19 variants entering the country.
Among these risks, most analysts believe the risk of the Olympics carried by Covid is low.
University of Tokyo researcher Taisuke Nakata applied the standard epidemiological model at the Olympics. Despite very pessimistic assumptions (only half of the visitors are vaccinated, none of them are quarantine-friendly and 100 infections are lost when tested at the border) they have little effect on the Japanese Covid-19 pandemic.
According to the Nakata model, the result of this scenario is an increase of about 15 infections per day a few months later.
Japan is moving forward with the Tokyo Olympics, despite its widespread anti-public stance. © Eugene Hoshiko / AP
“Intuitively, the number of Olympic visitors is to be less than 1 percent of Tokyo’s population,” he said. Because the coronavirus is already prevalent in Japan, athletes and other visitors are unable to speed up the pandemic much.
In fact, 80% of visitors are expected to be vaccinated and will be included strict quarantine daily with Covid-19 tests, so their impact on infections in Japan should be minimal.
A more serious threat is that the Olympics will change the behavior of the Japanese people. Tokyo controls Covid-19 at 20:00 to close restaurants and ask them not to give alcohol to limit the number high-risk socialization.
Filling the stadiums with fans would have the opposite effect. “If the athlete you are helping wins the gold medal, you will shout for joy and then we will all say‘ let’s drink, ’” said Shigeru Omi, Japan’s Covid-19 response officer, in a parliamentary testimony.
In Nakata modelThe increase in activity of the Japanese people risked an increase of 90-120 infections per day in a few months.
“Rather than the relationship between athletes or between athletes and ordinary people, it is much more important to limit the movement of the Japanese public,” Omi said.
People protesting against the Tokyo Olympics. © Yuichi Yamazaki / Getty
The third area of risk is the stress of the medical system, both in terms of the doctors and nurses needed by the Olympics staff, and in terms of the pressure of more coronavirus cases. As a result, Japanese clinicians tend to be more negative about gambling than epidemiologists.
“Doctors will keep them away from university and city hospitals,” said Satoshi Hori, an infection control expert at Juntendo University in Tokyo. “They are unpaid volunteers. They are currently busy in hospitals, so it will cause a shortage of staff. “
That said, the Olympics need to be canceled. “For a short event, having a bubble is practical, but having a lot of events during the week in many places – can it really be done in a bubble?” he asked.
The ultimate danger is that visitors to the games will bring the new Covid-19 variant to Japan. Naoto Ueyama, head of the Japanese Medical Union, also thought that making the games could lead to the “Tokyo Olympics” of the disease.
Latest coronavirus news
Follow the FT’s live coverage and analysis of the global pandemic and the rapidly developing economic crisis here.
However, most of the known variants, such as those first detected in the UK and India, are already in Japan, although this is not a newly discovered variant in Vietnam. If the Covid-19 variant had not reached Japan, the additional risk posed by the Olympics would have been much greater.
Putting all the risks together, Japan is thinking about how to manage the Olympics whether to move forward, the health official said. “We’ve had a variety of sporting events from sumo to baseball at Covid-19. We have the experience to keep the coronavirus at current levels without making hard blockages. “
Unless the government loses its nerve in recent weeks, Japan will soon try to repeat the trick while organizing the biggest sporting event on earth.
[ad_2]
Source link
