The CDU hopes that victories in regional polls could rally the German Greens

Elections in a small East German state with fewer people than Berlin could mark a turning point in a year for Angela Merkel to decide who will be the leader of Europe’s largest economy.

Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union achieved a memorable victory that year Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, garnering 37 percent of the vote – seven percentage points more than in the last state election in 2016 and 16 points more than the far right of the runner-up An alternative to Germany (AfD).

The result was a huge boost Armin Laschet, The CDU’s candidate for chancellor in the September Bundestag elections, and has been overshadowed by the popular in recent weeks The greens. The eco-party performed very poorly in Saxony-Anhalt, reaching only 5.9 per cent.

Many in the CDU say the results proved that the brightness of the Greens is fading. “They’ve lost their magic,” said Christoph Ploss, head of the CDU in Hamburg.

Saxony-Anhalt could end the CDU’s dry season. Parties a corruption scandal involving some local parliamentarians, a bitter struggle Laschet and Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder, frustrations over who should be running for rector from the center-right slowly started the Covid-19 vaccination campaign.

People are starting to think about what the green government would mean, and they realize that a lot of things would change for the worse.

Some parties expect the tide to turn now. The removal of the six-month coronavirus shutdown and expectations of a regular summer holiday have improved voter mood, boosted the CDU’s poll boost and led to a higher level of acceptance by Laschet.

Driven by Sunday’s results, some Christian Democrats are drawing parallels with the decisive moment in Germany’s recent political history – dramatic getting out of the way The so-called “Schulz train” in 2017.

That year, the Social Democrats were leading the election and their leader, Martin Schulz, looked like a former president of the European Parliament. of course the removal of Merkel chancellor in the autumn elections.

But the wheels came out of his campaign for credible victories for the CDU after two regional elections: Saarland in March and North Rhine-Westphalia in May. The SPD won 20.5 percent in the national election, the worst post-war result.

Renowned CDU politician Friedrich Merz suggested that Green MP Annalena Baerbock, who had a media honeymoon after being nominated as the first candidate for the Greens ’first chancellor in April, could be a green MP. “The Baerbock train has derailed this afternoon,” he wrote on Twitter on Sunday evening.

“Baerbock was created in the same way that Schulz was,” Ploss said. “But now it’s being measured by different standards. People are starting to think about what the green government would mean, and they realize it would change a lot for the worse.”

Asked on Monday whether he agreed with Schulz’s analogy, Laschet did not comment. “These comparisons are made with trains – I don’t make them myself,” he said. “[Baerbock] it’s my main competitor, and I take all competitors seriously. ”

But, he added, the result achieved by the Greens in Saxony-Anhalt can hardly be described as a “mega-wave” caused by Baerbock, as the Greens ranked fifth, behind the pro-business Free Democrats, traditionally one of the smallest parties. Bundestag.

Baerbock’s campaign was head-on strong head winds even before Sunday’s result. He was forced to apologize last month after admitting that he did not have to give part of the revenue from the leadership of the green party to parliament until this March. The Greens were also forced to make changes Official CV after the inaccuracies were revealed by the local media. He said, for example, that he was a member of the UNHCR when he merely supported an organization that raised money for the UN refugee agency.

However, experts say it is inappropriate to compare it to Schulz. “In 2017 the SPD bubble grew and burst within a few months,” said Robert Vehrkamp, ​​a political scientist at the Bertelsmann Foundation, a think tank.

“The Greens have been doing a tough interrogation for the last two years now [to] for three years and have consistently performed well in the regional elections during that period. They are not in the flash pan. “

Experts say the CDU should continue to draw too many conclusions from the Saxony-Anhalt race. The state, once part of communist East Germany, is only 3% of the country’s voting age. It is also unusual to have a stronghold of the AfD, which gained 21 per cent on Sunday. After polls suggested that the right-wing party could win outright, many left-wingers tried to stop it by changing the loyalty of the CDU. It is unlikely that voter behavior will occur at the national level.

Sunday’s vote does not mean disaster for the Greens, analysts say. “Their train has not jumped [off] rails, “said Vehrkampt.” But it’s clear it’s going to be a much chunkier ride than they might have expected. ”