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The Asian White House senior official has warned that stating that the US will defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack would lead to “bad sides”.
Washington has for decades maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity” around Taiwan Taipei discouraged from proclaiming independence and from China’s military actions to kidnap the country. Beijing claims democratic Taiwan as part of its sovereign territory.
Some experts have called for a shift to “strategic clarity” make it clear to Beijing That the US would defend Taiwan. But Kurt Campbell, an Asian White House tsar, said the change was in jeopardy.
“There are downsides. . . strategic clarity, ”he told the Financial Times Global Boardroom Conference on Tuesday.
“The best way to maintain peace and stability is to send a clear message of diplomacy, defense innovation and our capabilities to the Chinese leadership, so that they do not see ambitious and dangerous provocative creative steps in the future.”
Chinese aggressive military activity and increasing analytical capabilities ensure a stronger message from Washington, some analysts say. But others have responded that it can lead to an unwanted result. China has warned the US to cross the “red line” over Taiwan.
National intelligence director Avril Haines has recently said that China will view policy change as “profoundly” unstable. “It would reinforce China’s perceptions that the U.S. is focused on limiting China’s rise, even through military force, and that Beijing would likely aggressively weaken U.S. interests around the world,” he said.
David Sacks, a member of the Foreign Affairs Council who supports the change, said there is a “negative side to strategic ambiguity” that arose at a time when China did not have the military capability to attack Taiwan.
“U.S. policy must recognize that deterrence is eroding and that it must adapt to China’s growing capabilities,” he said. “China’s actions in Hong Kong show that Western criticism and sanctions are not enough to shape its behavior. Strategic clarity would give China how seriously we take the question of Taiwan’s future. “
Concern has arisen like China more war planes fly He entered the field of Taiwan air defense identification last year, in what has become almost a common activity. Last month, the People’s Liberation Army sent 25 military planes to the southwestern corner of Taiwan’s ADIZ.
Analysts said the flights were aimed at intimidating Taipei and depleting its air force. This should confuse jets in response.
In a recent appearance at a congressional hearing in March before retiring as head of U.S. Indo-Pacific forces, Philip Davidson said he was concerned about China within six years attacked Taiwan. He also said that strategic ambiguity has helped maintain the status quo for decades, saying “these things should be looked at twice.”
A few days later, a senior US official told the FT that the administration believed it was China tied to the idea carrying out military actions.
Asked if the world needs to prepare for a possible conflict over Taiwan, Campbell downplayed the risk, saying China’s military activity is an effort to “screw” Taiwan.
But Elizabeth Economy, of the Hoover Institution think-tank group that spoke to the panel along with Campbell, said she was increasingly concerned.
“One thing you can learn from Xi Jinping by reading all his speeches and following his actions is that there is a pretty strong correlation between what he says and what he does.”
“He has talked about the need to reunite with Taiwan before. He has not given up on the use of force… We must take very seriously the threat of overconfidence so that his military can be safe.”
Ryan Hass, a Chinese expert on the Brookings Institution think-tank group, said Campbell’s statement was important because “there are few problems… The accuracy of the language has a greater impact than Taiwan.”
“Campbell’s repetition of long-standing policies indicates that strength and resilience will continue to be the order of the day to address Taiwan’s issues,” Hass said. “His comments should limit the future autonomy that U.S. officials will have in Taiwan policy.”
Follow Demetri Sevastopulo on Twitter: @Dimi
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